Trends & Patterns of Land Use Change and International Aid in Sub-Saharan Africa Ephraim Nkonya Jawoo Koo Edward Kato Zhe Guo International Food Policy.

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Presentation transcript:

Trends & Patterns of Land Use Change and International Aid in Sub-Saharan Africa Ephraim Nkonya Jawoo Koo Edward Kato Zhe Guo International Food Policy Research Institute

SSA – world’s future breadbasket While crop yield gaps in other regions has narrowed leading to reduced food production from yield increase, yield gap is SSA is the widest About 90% of the remaining 1.8 billion ha of global arable land in developing countries is in LAC and SSA (Bruinsma 2009) Recent land grabbing attests to SSA’s future BB role – 66% of 234 million ha acquired by foreign investors came from SSA (Anseeuw, et al 2012) But challenges limiting high agricultural productivity in SSA need to be addressed to tap its large potential

SSA’s pattern of land use & its relationship with international aid ODA support as % of GDP of recipient country is highest in countries with largest cropland expansion

Cropland area expansion has predominantly replaced intact forest

Botswana & DRC offer important lessons for cropland use change in SSA Botswana DRC SSA Carbon density (tons/ha) Freshwater (m 3 /capita) GDP per capita current US$ Logistics Performance index Government effectiveness R&D expenditure as % of Ag GDP Aid as % of GDP (avg ) What drives Botswana to attaining such favorable outcomes with ltd resources and DRC to poor outcomes while it is endowed with abundant natural resources?

Major drivers of cropland extent & implications Impact on cropland area Implications Ag R&D↓,↑More investment in R&D to tap SSA large potential International aid↑,↓More aid required in land based sectors to reach threshold Access to roads↑Road improvement should be accompanied with enhancing environmental regulations Population density↑,↓Boserupian induced intensification Agricultural export↓Remunerative prices enhance intensification Gov’t effectiveness↑Increase capacity of gov’t effectiveness to level to prevent deforestation Land tenure security↓Land security enhances intensification Poverty & population density ↑Target dev’t programs to rural poor to increase intensification