Healthy Ageing in Scotland (HAGIS) Healthy AGeing In Scotland (HAGIS) David Bell

The Health and Retirement Study The University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal panel study. It surveys a representative sample of more than 26,000 Americans over the age of 50 every two years. HRS explores the changes in labour force participation and the health transitions that individuals undergo toward the end of their work lives and in the years that follow. Since launch in 1992, the study has collected information about income, work, assets, pension plans, health insurance, disability, physical health and functioning, cognitive functioning, and health care expenditures. Through its unique and in-depth interviews, the HRS provides an invaluable and growing body of multidisciplinary data that researchers can use to address important questions about the challenges and opportunities of aging.

The Health and Retirement Study The University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal panel study. It surveys a representative sample of more than 26,000 Americans over the age of 50 every two years. HRS explores the changes in labour force participation and the health transitions that individuals undergo toward the end of their work lives and in the years that follow. Since launch in 1992, the study has collected information about income, work, assets, pension plans, health insurance, disability, physical health and functioning, cognitive functioning, and health care expenditures. Through its unique and in-depth interviews, the HRS provides an invaluable and growing body of multidisciplinary data that researchers can use to address important questions about the challenges and opportunities of aging.

HRS Compatible Surveys English Longitudinal Study on Ageing (ELSA) Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) Korean Longitudinal Study on Aging (KLoSA) Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) Chinese Health, Aging, and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) TILDA - The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing Japanese Study on Aging and Retirement (J-STAR) Mexican Health and Ageing Study (MHAS) Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI)

ELSA Publications – (a very selective sample) Understanding pensions: cognitive function, numerical ability and retirement savingUnderstanding pensions: cognitive function, numerical ability and retirement saving, IFS Working Papers, W06/05. Signs of ageingSigns of ageing, The Actuary.The Actuary Pensions, pensioners and pensions policy: financial security in UK retirement savings?Pensions, pensioners and pensions policy: financial security in UK retirement savings?, March 2004, IFS Briefing Notes, BN48. The impact of occupational pensions on retirement ageThe impact of occupational pensions on retirement age, Journal of Social PolicyJournal of Social Policy The role of waist circumference in predicting disability in preretirement age adultsThe role of waist circumference in predicting disability in preretirement age adults, International Journal of ObesityInternational Journal of Obesity

HAGIS – way ahead? Establish managerial structure Work with ELSA and TILDA Develop USPs for HAGIS sample frame and linkage activity measurement financial literacy crowd data collection genetics Collect support within Scotland – Yammer network Talk to potential funders Submit application to NIA by June 2012 If application successful, pilot study in the field by late 2013

Agent-Based Modelling (Microsimulation) Answers “what if” questions. Based on individuals, households, firms etc. Derive synthetic population or draw from survey data Static or dynamic Accounting or behavioural Develop scenarios for decision-makers

UK Microsimulation Models Microsimulation models in Government l IGOTM (Inter-Governmental Tax-Benefit Model) at HM Treasury l PSM (Policy Simulation Model) at DWP l PENSIM (Pensions Simulation Model) at DWP l MM (Macro Model) at Bank of England Microsimulation models at IFS l TAXBEN (IFS Tax-Benefit Model) l SPAIN (Simulation Program for the Analysis of Incentives) l SPIT (Simulation Program for Indirect Taxation)

9 Welsh LA Survey Personal Care Costs, Charges Huge variation in weekly costs of personal care by IoRN Care costs decrease with age Informal carer reduces costs by £40 per week BHPS Care Relationships Provision of informal care decreases with distance between parent and child Family Resources Survey Determinants of Provision Of LA Care Population Characteristics Income & Benefits Increases in age and disability Determinants of informal care Used to analyse changes in local government taxation OPERA Microsimulation Model UK and Constituent Parts Mortality Life Tables (GROS)

Dynamic Microsimulation – Follows the Life Course 10 Age 70 in 2008Dies aged 80 in 2018 Care at home Hospitalisation spells In care home With Dementia - Level