Investing in Norway from an international Real Estate Market Perspective Chris Staveley 9 th February 2012 International.

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Presentation transcript:

Investing in Norway from an international Real Estate Market Perspective Chris Staveley 9 th February 2012 International

22 Akershus Eiendom: international cooperation Jones Lang LaSalle: Our Global Capital Markets Platform  Combining the in-depth local knowledge of over 1,300 investment and corporate finance professionals based in 209 offices around the world  Completed over $300 billion of sales, acquisitions and finance transactions since 2006, of which over 40% have been cross border  Unique relationships with active sellers and buyers across the globe through the International Capital Group  Akershus Eiendom has had a formal cooperation agreement for 10 years with Jones Lang LaSalle as its sole partner in Norway since the agreement was signed in 2001  The cooperation agreement includes transactions, corporate solution services for key clients, research and valuation

3 European Commercial Real Estate Demand is Global Global Sources of Funds Global Asia Pacific Americas Europe Middle East NB: Other geographies or unknown capital accounted to EUR 5.8 billion 83.5 Equity rich investors (e.g. Canadian and US pension funds) from the Americas have become increasingly active across Europe in 2011 Sharp increase in capital flows from outside Europe YoY growth in capital inflows Capital Sources2011 (€bn)% Change YoY European87.1+4% International % Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Property Data (UK); Akershus Eiendom (Norway), Athens Economics (Greece), Sadolin & Albaek (Denmark), RCA Analytics, January : €bn

44 European Transaction Activity 2011 EUR bn TOTAL EUR bn Office 44% Retail 33% Industrial 8% Other 14%  1%  29%  32%  17%  108%  -45% -2%  0.6  6%  35% European Investment Volumes (all commercial sectors, EUR bn) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Property Data (UK); Akershus Eiendom (Norway), Athens Economics (Greece), Sadolin & Albaek (Denmark), RCA Analytics, January 2012 Circles: € billions traded in full year 2011 % change 2010 vs Volume by sector

5 Regent St Estate* (25%) London, UK NBIM (Norway) €550m Aviva Tower* London, UK Private (Indonesian) € St James* London, UK MEPF (Malaysia) €168m O’Parinor (51%)* Paris, France NPS (South Korea) €223m 20 Columbus Courtyard* London, UK M1 (Lebanon) €180m 1 Kingdom Street* London, UK Cityhold Property AB Group (Sweden) €268m Polish Telecoms* Warsaw, Poland Qatar Holding (Qatar) €135m PEP* Munich, Germany TIAA-CREF (USA) €400m New Capital Sources in the European Market Hotel de Crillon* Paris, France Royal Family (Saudi Arabia) €250m * Jones Lang LaSalle advised Olympia* Brno, Czech Republic ECE and NPS (Germany and South Korea) €262.5m

6 Investment in the Nordics has been strengthening Nordic Market Share Nordics increasing their market share – the market was a similar size to France in 2011 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Akershus Eiendom (Norway) Sadolin & Albaek (Denmark), January 2012

7 As highly liquid markets, the dominance of domestic investors in Sweden and Norway illustrates the level of wealth within the countries Domestic Purchasers Drive the Nordic Markets in 2011 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Property Data (UK); Akershus Eiendom (Norway), Athens Economics (Greece), Sadolin & Albaek (Denmark), RCA Analytics, IHS Global Insight Jan 2012

8 Where Real Estate capital wants to invest 2012 UK – remains attractive as a highly liquid market and a perceived “safe haven” sitting outside the €zone CEE – continued growth will attract investors with some appetite for risk; activity will be driven by availability of product NORDICS – investors like the Nordics because their better than average economic outlook RUSSIA – positive long term growth trend will attract more international capital into the market FRANCE –Strong recovery since 2009 but volumes could fall after deals were brought forward to take advantage of the tax incentive GERMANY – investors attracted to the stability offered by the economy SOUTHERN EUROPE – High levels of investor caution; some interest from opportunity funds but pricing will have to adjust further DECREASE IN INVESTMENT FLAT INCREASE IN INVESTMENT Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

9 Countries with Stronger Outlook will attract Capital Net Growth in Investment in 2011 (€bn) Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Property Data (UK); Akershus Eiendom (Norway), Athens Economics (Greece), Sadolin & Albaek (Denmark), RCA Analytics, Oxford Economics, Global Insight Jan 2012

10 Note This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimate each prime office market is within its individual rental cycle as at end of December 2011 Markets can move around the clock at different speeds and directions The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the relative position of markets in their rental cycle Their position is not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. Their position refers to Prime Face Rental Values European Office Property Clock Q Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Barcelona, Brussels Amsterdam, Budapest, Dublin, Madrid Edinburgh, Rome St. Petersburg Milan Cologne Lyon, Stuttgart The Jones Lang LaSalle Property Clocks SM Copenhagen Athens Lisbon Bucharest, Frankfurt, Istanbul, Kiev, Luxembourg, Prague Berlin, Hamburg, Munich Düsseldorf, Geneva, Stockholm Warsaw Helsinki Moscow Oslo London City, London West End, Paris, Zurich Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP, January 2012

11 % change Office Rental Trend is Strong in Nordic Markets… Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Akershus Eiendom (Norway), January 2012 Prime Office Rental Change Q – Q4 2011

12 Q Office Capital Value/m2 vs.10-year Average (local currency in 2011 prices)

13 Domestic Dominance but Very Liquid Markets Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Property Data (UK); Akershus Eiendom (Norway), Athens Economics (Greece), Sadolin & Albaek (Denmark), RCA Analytics, IHS Global Insight Jan 2012 Direct RE Investment per capita: 2011 * Central London investment volumes includes offices only

14 The Norwegian Market has High Levels of Transparency 1.0 United Kingdom, Sweden, Ireland, France, Netherlands Germany, Belgium, Denmark 1.5 Finland, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Italy, Poland 2.0 South Africa, Czech Republic Hungary, Israel 2.5 Greece, Slovakia, Russia (Tier 1-2 Cities) Romania, Turkey 3.0 Bulgaria, Russia (Tier 3 Cities), Ukraine, Slovenia 3.5 Croatia, Kazakhstan 4.0 Belarus Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, LaSalle Investment Management Highest High Semi Low Opaque NORWAY

15 Oslo Prime Yields becoming more Aligned with Europe OsloEurope* Current Prime Yield 5.25% Year Average 5.71% Year Average 6.75% Year Average Prime yields in Oslo are in line with a weighted European average but are sitting well below the long-term average Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Akershus Eiendom (Norway), January 2012 Prime Yield % * Yield is weighted

% p.a. Over-performersUnder-performers London – City7.0Utrecht0.4 Warsaw5.6Luxembourg0.4 Edinburgh5.4The Hague0.0 Moscow5.1Dusseldorf0.0 Oslo5.0 Brussels0.0 Rental Forecasts Strongly suggest Outperformance in Oslo Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, December 2011

17 Forecast Norwegian Economic Outlook is Positive Consumer Price Index Annual Growth (%) Annual Average Growth Over Norway’s average annual growth outperforms other major European economies Norway Germany Sweden UK Finland Source: Oxford Economics Norwegian inflation forecast to remain below targetUnemployment expected to remain low Norway GDP growth looks set to outperform ILO Umemployment Rate (%) Higher GDP growth than Europe in 2012 : we forecast + 2.3% vs % in the EU-27 Better labour market in Norway : unemployment is one of the lowest in Europe While inflation is under control : inflation is anticipated to remain below target

18 Norwegian Bonds relatively stable against German bunds Source: Datastream; February 2012 % point spread over German 10 year bunds Source: Datastream; February 2012

19 Sovereign Debt, not an issue for Norway Government Total Debt as % of GDP 2011 Source: Global Insight, November 2011 Government Fiscal Balance % GDP 2011 Developed Countries – Total Government debt and fiscal balance as a % of GDP

20 Nordic Regions’ Banks’ Tier 1 capital ratios healthy Nordic banks are the most well capitalised in Europe and will have more scope for lending activity Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Equity Research

21 Source: Strong Capital Base will support Norwegian Market… Top 10 Global Sovereign Wealth Funds Total Assets (US$bn)

22 Forecast … and Population Growth in Norway and Oslo Region is Strong Population Growth Forecasts Annual Population Growth Index (2005=100) +7% +27% +3% +18% +13% Source: Oxford Economics; December 2011

23 Investing in Norway – International Perspective European real estate demand is global Nordic investment is relatively strong – but highly domestic Norwegian market has strong prospects and will attract new capital sources Norwegian economic backdrop is very robust – should increase the relative attractiveness of the market Perception of a lack of liquidity – not necessarily real Domestic competition and transaction speed are barriers A market too far for regional funds? – Should not be the case

24 This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. Jones Lang LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication. Chris Staveley International Director European Capital Markets London +44 (0) Takk!