6 December December 2009 FPWG Consultation on the draft NFP Plan of Action Monitoring Report 2009 Overview of Progress and Policy challenges NFP Objective 2 Increased purchasing power and access to food of the people
Selected performance indicators
1. Assessment CBN poverty rate Upper poverty line: significant decrease from 50% in to 40% in 2005 Lower poverty line: from 35% to 25% over the same period (BBS) Proportion of undernourished (%) From 36% baseline in to 40% in and 26% in Aim: 18% by 2015 (FAO) Number of undernourished in million From 41.6 baseline in to 51.4 in and 40.2 in Aim: 20 by 2015 (FAO) Rural-urban gap narrowed but rural poverty rate in 2005 still more than 1.5 times urban rate Income poverty (CBN) reduction has been faster than food insecurity reduction (DCI) in rural areas => less scope for consumption of own produce in cities
1. Assessment (Cont.) Number of food insecure increased by about 2 million between 2000 and 2005 2005: 56 million living on less than 2,122 kcal/day/per capita 41.2 million of them in rural areas Income inequality increased (Gini coefficient from 0.31 in 2000 to 0.53 in 2008), esp. in rural areas (from 0.27 in 2000 to 0.49 in 2008) Inequality compounded by regional disparities in poverty rates notably East and West. Coastal districts and monga/drought prone areas also among poorest
1. Assessment (Cont.) Changes in food/rice prices From an all time low (less than 2%) at the beginning of the 2000s, inflation increased to 9.9% in 2007/08 Food inflation rose from beginning FY09-10, reflecting a recent surge in domestic prices of essential commodities Similar pattern for rice price inflation but with much larger magnitudes: from a 6.9% in July 2006 to a staggering 70.4% in January 2008 followed by downward spiraling to a negative 31.3% in October 2009
1. Assessment (Cont.) Will the MDG poverty and hunger reduction targets be achieved? MDG Progress Report (2008) estimates the poverty rate at 37% in 2008 and projects that the poverty target (29%) can be reached by 2015, BUT rate of poverty reduction insufficient for reaching target in rural areas West of the country foreseen to lag behind target HOWEVER: This does not account for the impacts of the shocks and effects of unfolding economic crisis World Bank (2009) estimates that depending on effects of the global recession on exports and remittances: CBN-poverty rate will fall to 31% (against 33% had there been no crisis), under the worst case scenario Recession may undermine poverty reduction prospects in the East given larger concentration of industries and remittances Latest FAO SOFI (2009): number of undernourished increased between and => World Food Summit target of halving the number of hungry by 2015 unlikely to be achieved
2. Issues and policy challenges Speeding up broad-based income generation in rural areas Agricultural sector contributes 20% of GDP and employs more than 70% of the population Need to step up interventions to increase agricultural productivity in labor intensive/higher value crops with special focus on small and marginal farmers in order to exploit their positive effects on food availability and real wages Efforts to improve marketing and agribusiness management systems and develop agricultural value chains also required
2. Issues and policy challenges Expanding productive/income-generating safety nets Use of upazila-based poverty maps to be systematized in design of programs Unemployment seasonality patterns to be taken into account in implementation schedule of safety nets Need to investigate potential trade-offs that difficult living conditions and costs (housing, basic services and employment) generate in terms of food access and consumption to better adapt interventions to urban areas Need to explore possibility of mainstreaming disaster-risk reduction and resilience-building in safety net program targeting in disaster prone areas Addressing the specific vulnerabilities of food market- dependent poor people and of coastal/disaster prone-areas
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