Tokyo Workshop on An African Green Revolution. Planned Research Session Agro-climate and Green Revolution: Evidence from India with Implications for Africa Dec. 7 th 2008 Takuji Tsusaka and Kaliappa Kalirajan

Overview: Drivers of Success in India Successful Regions  New agricultural policy toward technology development in the context of the successive droughts in the mid ’60s in the northwest region.  High irrigation ratio  Introduction of tube well  Importance of road conditions Further Development 1980s: Development of Modern Varieties  Introduction of small scale irrigation with pumping.  Rural poverty reduction Influence of British Colonization

 India consists of 29 states of diverse agro-climates  The agricultural production environments in some parts of India are similar to those in Africa, which implies a technology transferability (1) Similarity in Cropping Patterns (2) Diversity in agro-climate (3) Dominance of peasants Rationale for Comparison of between India and Africa Similarities Bajra (Pearl Millet) Field Sources: The India Database; WDR 2008 (1) Area harvested (%) IndiaSSAAsia (1987) ( Avg.) ( Avg.)

(2) Agro-Climate Diversity Geographic area: 328 million ha, from 8oN to 36oN in latitude, between 68oE and 98oE in longitude, the altitude varying from the mean sea-level to the highest mountain ranges of the world. Rainfall: India contains the station with the highest mean annual rainfall in the world (Cherrapunji in Assam) and also dry, semi-desert area in Rajasthan. In parts of Rajasthan and the Deccan, the variability of rainfall is more than 100 per cent of the mean. Temperature: It varies greatly geographically as well as seasonally. Northern and central parts of India in the pre-monsoon months the maximum temperatures of over 40oC are reached over a large area. Frost occurs in winter in the plains, as far south as a line drawn through Madhya Pradesh and may be heavy in Kashmir and areas north of Punjab. The peasantry ranges from the relatively affluent Punjabi farmers who operate with a high input intensity in agriculture to the subsistent farmers of eastern and central India. Between these two extremes, various intensities of cultivation are practiced. The fact is that the average farm-size in most areas is lower than that in most tropical countries. Rationale for Comparison between India and Africa Similarities (3) Dominance of Peasants Reference: Krishiworld

District-level Climate Diversity in India Precipitation (July)Temperature (July) mm °C°C # of districts Rather varied precipitation and temperature levels across districts. Sources: The India Database for 1987

Comparison of Average Cereal Yields between India and Africa Source: FAOSTAT Sub-Saharan Africa India Despite the similarity in cropping patterns, there is a significant gap in yield growth. (Ton/ha) Southeast Asia

Yield Growth in Major Crops India vs. Africa The yields for dominant crops in Africa, sorghum and millet, are not inferior to those in India, indicating the limited transferability of technology from India. Aside from rice, it may be better to focus on the technology on maize. Wheat Rice Maize Sorghum Millet Yield (Ton/ha) Wheat Rice Maize Sorghum Millet IndiaSub-Saharan Africa Source: FAOSTAT

Research Questions to be Answered Q1. Is the soil quality a critical factor? It it is, to what extent? Isn’t there any possibility for breakthrough? Q2. Is there a possibility of growth under poor road condition and lack of irrigation? Q3. Are climate instability and adverse climate, which are common in SSA, a stumbling block? How is it comparable to India?  Is the role of climate becoming less important as technology improves? Underlying Assumption: Before the introduction of MVs, factors affecting crop yields were not essentially different between SSA and India.  Reliable panel data will be useful to explore these issues quantitatively. Water Road Agricultural Productivity Climate MVs Soil

Role of Climate Factors Pearl Millet Sorghum Maize Wheat Rice Insignificant Negative Positive Negative RainfallTemperature Negative Positive Preliminary results of a cross-sectional regression of the major crop yields on rainfall and temperature using district-level data in 1987 in India.  One example of future findings.

Construction of Panel Data 2000s | | 1956 Agricultural IP/OP (5 major crops) Other Controls (Popden/agL/cul L/wage/literacy) Edaphic (Iype/Aquifer thickness/ p-H/Topsoil thickness) Climate (Temperature/ Rainfall) District-level (271 districts) Avg. of 30yrs Given the panel, you can see the fluctuation Infrastructure (Irrigation/ Road) Some input prices can be a proxy Probably it is not so difficult to find recent data, but problems may be the unavailability of consistent district-level data over the long period.