Coastal Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Process Pasha Carruthers, Cook Islands National Environment Service Jakarta, Indonesia, March 20 th, 2006 Cook Islands Experiences & Challenges

–Island micro-state Latitude 9-22°S Longitude °W limited land size (240 sq km) small population size (16,000?) limited natural resources external economic and physical impacts important geographic diversity with both high and low islands- V&A only done on 3 islands Cook Islands Today’s Presentation: Background Experience Methods Findings Future Directions

All live within 5 km of coast Tourism Pearls Commercial and Subsistence Seafood Coastal Flood Plain Agriculture Socio-economic elements

Background Signatory to UNFCCC 1992 needed to produce “The Initial National Communication” Country Team Approach USP V&A Course –Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario generation – PACCLIM Instead focused on: –expanding the V&A statement to enhance full representation of the country –qualitative baselines –public awareness PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme: –Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional Environment Programme) –Assist countries to meet their obligations under the Convention –Provided technical assistance, training, capacity building

Cook Islands INC Experience Methods applied limited mainly to analogues, expert judgment, brainstorming Assumptions Not Tested Why so limited? –Relevance to scale –Capacity and Technology –Poor understanding of other methods

Models and Decisions Integrated Assessment Models still more theory than practice –MAGICC, IMAGE & others have benefits but time consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations Expensive PACCLIM demonstration tool has had limited applicability –not simple, too many errors, closed programs –useful application at the decision maker level requires a motivator and a greater level of completeness. –Role as a training tool, for identifying cross sectoral considerations

PACCLIM Outputs Where is my island?

Example of Cook Clim Inundation Simulation Concerns: Only for one island Not visually significant for decision makers Population & Socio- economic info missing Time Consuming

Brainstorming Method Main Types Of Coastal Sector Impacts

Exposure of infrastructure and housing to storm surge. Rarotonga - Coconut trees frequently falling over, rock walls, groynes etc Observed Impacts Coastal Zones - erosion

Tongareva - Exposed coral heads sensitive to temperature increases Coastal Zones and Coral Reefs Coral Bleaching, poor reef health Observed Impacts cont

Observed Impacts Storm Surge, Cyclones

The narrow width of the islands means saltwater intrusion is always a threat to shallow wells such as these. Drought reduces the fresh water level, and risks contamination. Water Resources - Salinisation Observed Impacts

Research Method – Information Gathering Needed –an information paper on V&A objectives for stakeholders –consultations with key ministries and consultants –Island specific data relevant to the scope of the assessment –collated published information physical, social, economic, political

Field Research Focal point established Overview of the island Meetings with government officials, community leaders Informal discussions School and Media Presentations Qualitative observations including anecdotal evidence Challenges Trust Limited time Presenting complex material Getting relevant input Recording feedback Verifying anecdotes Quantifying observations and uncertainties

Island Specific: Mangaia and Storm Surge Housing located on makatea ridge Coral is porous Storm surges increase swamp salinity – anecdotal – no baseline Taro Root Crops Suffer -major export -source of nutrition

Nature of Findings Poor linkages between levels of government, departments, and external projects/consultants Data access and storage disjointed Coastal zone as a climate sensitive sector –lack of locally relevant scientific assessment tools (although maybe have some now!) –insight from locals e.g. salt water intrusion –but difficulty remained as to what decisions to make

Coastal Area Adaptation Options Brainstorming Method Traditional Measures – reforestation, housing, windbreaks Technology –Coastal protection devices Community –Coastal Vegetation Planting –Awareness/Education Policy –Promote sustainable development - ecotourism –Conservation, ICZM

Expert Judgement use in identifying adaptation options Example: Marine Resources in Coastal Area Areas of concern –erosion, coral reef resilience, near shore fisheries, pearl quality Adaptation options - Generalised –development away from shoreline –integrated coastal management –ra’ui, incorporate traditional and modern conservation –monitoring, sensitive species and rehabilitation plans –education and awareness –Reduce sources of sedimentation and eutrophication

Current Practices – new methods, more data Case studies -Site specific and localised assessment, –CBDAMPIC, Participatory V&A, Adaptation Option Implementation –CLIMAP – Modelling Coastal Inundation & Costs of Adaptation –AIACC – Research based – lack of data for modelling impacts Use of technology such as GIS More focus on adaptation option assessment, costs and benefits, socioeconomic and livelihood aspects, integration into policy, promotion of adaptation

Lessons Learnt Different islands in the Cooks have very different vulnerability profiles and adaptation needs Lack of quantitative assessment tools and data means baselines are difficult to establish Meetings can be hard to arrange – informants feel ‘over consulted’ frustrated by studies and no action Recording everything in a systematic way vital, time consuming Need to Verify facts from all sources as many repeat errors Much awareness can be generated simply through audio- visual resources Incorporation of climate relevant policies into island development plans ongoing issue

–Open Structure Models, focused data collection –Access to national and international technical expertise –Improve results obtained from simple methods, interview skills, checklists –Reporting Important, takes time, need benchmarks Risk Management and coping ability Integrated management plans Implementation through policy, National Implementation Strategy Public & Education Awareness Continued lobbying for adaptation assistance Future Directions

Conclusion Recognising the urgency of these assessments, the time constraints (3 years) in which we have to produce the second national communications, one role for us is to ensure the V&A produces better information and baselines for now and the future so we are further ahead for precautionary approaches.

Thankyou

Global Regional Level 1 GEF UNDP APN SPREP PICCAP Geography Community Environmental Health Baseline Data Available Resilience Economic Cost of Climate Change Suitable Adaptation Options Local Decision Makers Tradition Public Awareness of Climate Issues Sustainability Research Capacity Island Councils Country Team PICCAP Project Environment Service Government Level 2 Level 3 Country Specific Island Specific Models Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments SURVAS National Communications