NOAA Climate Change & Water Sector Webinar Series March 20, 2015

Presentation Outline CRWU History Adaptation Strategies Guide Extreme Events Workshop Planner CREAT Projections Map Storm Surge Inundation and Hurricane Frequency Map Pilots Outreach Q&A 2

Housekeeping Please keep your lines on mute Q&A breaks throughout presentation –Type your questions into the chat box –Ask over the phone at the end of the presentation 3

CRWU History 4 National Drinking Water Advisory Council Climate Ready Water Utilities (CRWU) Report Final report provides EPA with recommendations on developing a CRWU initiative to support water sector climate resiliency. Developing an Adaptive Response Framework Fundamental guide to build out the concept of a climate ready water utility, integrates with other tools.

Mission Statement To provide the water sector (drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater utilities) with the practical tools, training, and technical assistance needed to adapt to climate change by promoting a clear understanding of climate science and adaptation options. 5

Climate Ready Process Climate Ready Tools & Resources 6 Assess Risks and Evaluate Opportunities Collaborate with Partners Research and Gather Information Learn Climate and Adaptation Basics Explore Elements of Climate Readiness Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool Extreme Events Workshop Planner Toolbox Adaptation Strategies Guide Adaptive Response Framework

Adaptation Strategies Guide 7 Promoting a Clear Understanding of Adaptation Options

Overview Guide for utilities to consider climate change in utility planning Navigate guide like a website Goals: –Present easy-to-understand climate science, translating data into impacts for utilities –List adaptation strategies related to impacts –Assist in the adaptation planning process Updates –Water conservation practices –Climate data –Energy Management –Green Infrastructure 8

ASG Overview 9

Climate Region Briefs 10

Challenge Briefs Translating climate data into utility- relevant challenges Adaptation options relevant to this challenge 11

Adaptation Options Options provided in three categories –Planning –Operational –Capital/ Infrastructure Relative cost ($- $$$) No Regrets Utility Examples 12

Sustainability Briefs Information on green infrastructure, energy management, and water demand management –benefits –how to get started –relevant adaptation options –examples –links to further resources 13

Preparing for Extreme Weather Events: Workshop Planner for the Water Sector 14 Developing long term plans to increase resiliency

Extreme Weather Events Workshop Planner Walks users through all of the steps of planning, conducting, and evaluating a workshop Goal is to determine actions that a utility or community can take today to become more resilient to more frequent and intense extreme events Open lines of communication between utilities and other local partners to assess potential impacts and adaptation to extreme events 15

Workshop Planner Scenarios Five scenarios are included: –Flooding –Drought –Sea-level rise –Wildfire –Reduced snowpack Available on CRWU website 16

Pilot Workshops Bisbee, AZ –Drought, wildfire, flooding –Worked with other agencies and emergency sectors to develop emergency management plans –Developed outreach at schools and town halls New Orleans; Erie, PA; Ft. Pierre, SD; Fresno, CA Updating tool with Rural Community Assistance Program 17

Provides easy “point and click” access to the 3 CREAT climate scenarios for any location within the U.S. Scenario-based Projected Changes Map 18

Scenario-based Projected Changes Map 19

Storm Surge Inundation & Hurricane Frequency Map 20

Houston, TX Hurricane Stats 21

Houston, TX FEMA Flood Maps 22

Houston, TX SLOSH 23

Climate Resilience Evaluation & Awareness Tool (CREAT) 24

Software tool for conducting risk assessment of potential climate change impacts at your utility Multiple climate scenarios provided to help capture uncertainty Assessments will help inform adaptation planning Results from CREAT help utilities compare potential costs, risk reduction and energy implications of different options 25 About CREAT

Process 26

What Can You Do In CREAT? Explore local climate data View links to publications, models and other tools Build Awareness Compare adaptation options Generate reports to support decisions Plan Adaptation Catalog data and assumptions Understand and assess climate impacts Assess Risk 27

CREAT Process 28

Historical Data 30-year ( ) annual and monthly averages of temperature and precipitation Data provided at ½ degree by ½ degree resolution (32x32 mi.) 29 Location ( ) with available climate stations ( ) in CREAT Intense precipitation data sourced from NOAA climate stations Select the station that best matches your historical data OR enter your own

Projected Climate Change CREAT provides projected changes in –Temperature –Precipitation –Intense precipitation –Sea level Rather than rely on a single projection, three scenarios are provided to support assessments over a range of possible future conditions 30

31 What Information and Data are Available? Models as basis for climate projections Down-scaling efforts to extend to local scales Challenge: connect changing climate to more direct consequences to water resources Source: IPCC AR4 Projected Temperature Changes for SRES A1B CREAT plot of climate model projections

32 Climate Scenarios Scenarios, based on a single model projection, selected for each grid cell –Hot and Dry model –Central model –Warm and wet model Data provided for two time periods ( and ) Multiple scenarios ( )within the distribution of climate model projections ( ) for a given location. Increasing Precipitation Increasing Temperature Selected scenarios

Climate Data in CREAT 33 View data from multiple climate stations, scenarios, and time periods Annual and monthly temperature and precipitation Intense precipitation events and sea- level rise

Consider those assets vulnerable to identified threats Pairs are the basis for all risk assessments Risk assessed for each scenario and time period when a threat is applicable Asset-Threat Pairs 34

Baseline shows current resilience Opportunity to consider and document benefit of what you already do Represents the risk of taking no action Baseline Analysis 35

You can assess the qualitative level of consequences for each category Tool combines these decisions into an overall level for asset-threat pair Assess Consequences 36

Each assessment results in a specific combination of likelihood and consequences Results placed into bins of the risk matrix Assessment Results 37

Resilience Analysis results represent the benefits from adaptation As in Baseline, assessments conducted for asset-threat pairs and time periods Similar process encourages you to consider options for reducing risk Resilience Analysis 38

Continue to build a list of adaptation options by identifying those that could be implemented to provide additional protection Explore ability to modify or improve existing measures, not just new practices or infrastructure Select and Modify Measures 39

Implementing adaptive measures should reduce consequences levels with respect to Baseline Difference in overall consequence level is translated into RRUs which are used to calculate the benefits of adaptive measures Adjust Consequences 40

Adaptation packages are possible plans for adapting to climate change Each measure contributes costs and RRUs as a measure of benefit Packages also defined in terms of energy implications of adaptive measures Building Packages 41

Results provided as Risk matrices: assessment results by likelihood and consequence Risk profiles: results counted by overall consequence Indices based on RRUs and distribution of results in matrices Quantitative Results 42

CREAT 3.0 Updated climate data Monetized risk values for comparison of risk Streamlined analysis option for new users and small system users Web-based / More user-friendly Includes a library of energy management, green infrastructure and water demand management resources for planning purposes 43

CRWU Projects 44 CREAT Pilots Extreme Events & Adaptation Planning Workshops Train-the-Trainer Workshops: Storm Surge

Thank you! Contact the Team Curt Baranowski gov Mike Maier ov Laura Dubin Jordan Page Get Updates! Join our mailing list: gov gov Visit us on the web: – eadyutilitieswww.epa.gov/climater eadyutilities 45