1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy ARPA Servizio IdroMeteorologico Bologna Italy Michele Stortini, Giovanni Bonafe’, Marco Deserti, Enrico Minguzzi, Suzanne Jongen
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Contents Description of Northern Italy Network for Forecast Aerosol pollution Winter test case (February 2004) Open questions and further developments
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Why NINFA Starting from 2006: daily runs, providing hourly air quality analysis and forecasts Air quality forecast in the Po Valley Air quality evaluation scenarios for regional and local reduction Action Plan Background fields for urban models (i.e. ISC, ADMS- Urban) used by ARPA local departments.
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen METEO: LAMI (7*7 km) CHIMERE (10*10 km) EMISSIONS: CTN_ACE (5*5 km) BOUNDARY CONDITIONS: Prev'air (0.5*0.5 degree) OUTPUT: O3, NO2, SO2, PM NINFA
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA (ER-Chimere-regional) 10*10km Prev’air (Chimere-continental) 0.5*0.5 degree Urban Models (ADMS-Urban)
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Emission Inventory CTN-ACE(National Topic Center on Air Climate and Emissions) Input data: Italian National Inventory 2000 and EMEP 2000 (NOx,NH3,SO2,PM10,CO,VOC) Output data: Gridded emissions for two national domains Northern (BPA) and Southern Italy (MED) Time profiles (EPA AP-42, EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook v3.0, Lombardia regional inventory) Chemical VOC speciation (UK NAEI) Chemical speciation profiles and PM granulometric classes distribution (EPA, Speciate v3.2)
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen PM10 Annual Emission
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Winter test case: february 2004 Model:Chimere regional 10*10 km (release V200410A) Boundary Conditions: “re-analysis” Chimere continental (0.5*0.5 degree) Meteo: Lama “re-analysis” Lokal Model (7*7 km) Emissions: Data set CTN-ACE (5*5 km)
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Average PM10 concentration feb NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level General under estimation of PM10 Some ‘hot-spot’ close to energy power plan
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Emission Pm10 (sector 1)/ Pm10 tot
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level Emissions sector 1 at 4 th level NINFA4: Emissions sector 3 at 2 nd level Other emissions at 1 st level
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Winter test case: february 2004 Left panel: Continental CHIMERE driven by MM5 (labelled CONT) Right panel :Regional CHIMERE driven by LM (labelled NINFA4)
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA4 better reproduces spatial structures although aerosol modelling results are under estimated
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Rural Background stations Good agreement at Ghegardi and Montecuccolino (TEOM station)!!
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (1)
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (2) PM10 simulated concentrations are generally three or four times lower than the observed ones. NINFA4 gives better results
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Granulometric classes distributions and aerosol species (spatial average) Secondary organic aerosol very low!!! phno3>ppm!!!
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen NINFA4 reproduces patterns in urban areas (Milan, Turin, Venice) as well as along major roads Average NO2 concentration feb. 2004
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Rural Background stations
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (1)
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Suburban station (2) NINFA4 seems fairly reproduce NO 2 concentrations over the major part of stations
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Discussion and conclusions NINFA has been implemented at ARPA-SIM. This model provides simulation results for PM and gas species. Compared to continental model NINFA improve substantially NO 2 simulation probably due to more accuracy of anthropogenic emission; comparisons with available data at background and suburban stations give acceptable results on PM10 only in few stations although NINFA gives better results. Some open questions: The introduction of Point source emission scheme could improve substantially model skill especially over Po Valley? Secondary organic matter vs. resuspension
1 st Chimere workshop March 2005Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen Further works Implementation of latest version of Chimere Test with increasing the model secondary organic matter and/or resuspension Long-term simulations (summer and winter seasons)