University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 1 “Understanding and Globally Communicating the LA Region’s Unparalleled Technology Resources” Ken Dozier Far West RTTC 8/15/01 Presentation

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 2 “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight” Jack Welch, Chairmen General Electric The Future

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 3 What is Knowledge ? TruthKnowledgeBelief Universal No Debate Effect Social Converge on debate Cause Personal Diverge on debate Cause 10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 4 “where... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949 “I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995 “This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” - Western Union, Internal memo, 1876 “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” - Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 “Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances” Lee De Forest, Radio Pioneer, 1957 The Future

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 5 “ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago” Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency Velocity “Startups are now expected to go public within 6-18 months after venture investment” Donna Jensen, Founder and CEO of startups.com

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 6 Industry Clusters –“Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth. Industry Cluster Electronic Key Export Oriented Firms Key Supplier Oriented Firms Key Economic Infrastructure Providers Consumer Electronic Assembly Computer Hardware Assembly Tool, Die & Machinery Office & Production Supply Specialized Component Supply Education & Training Institutions Physical Infrastructure Providers Financial and Regulatory Institutions (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 7 Automotive Aerospace/Defense Industrial Machinery Transportation and Distribution Financial Services Tourism and Recreation Educational Services Info/Media and Entertainment Business Services Health Services Fashion, Apparel and Textiles Home and Lifestyle Products Agriculture and Food Processing Bio-Medical Products Electronics Machinery and Systems Forest Products Metals Construction Products Energy and Process Materials Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 8 Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 9 Industry Clusters (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center Motion PicturesAviation Electronics Defense Aviation Automobile Manufacturing Food Processing Agriculture Theme Parks Motion Pictures Television Computer Peripherals Defense Instruments Commercial Aviation Metal Products General Manufacturing Information Processing Defense Aerospace Theme Parks/ Tourism Visual Media Production Professional Services Multimedia Technology Engineering Services Technology-Based Manufacturing General Manufacturing Information Processing Business Services The Evolution of Industry (ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1965)

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 11 EZ and Incubator Spatial Distribution

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 12 Traditional Entrepreneurship Typical Waterfall model Six Stages –basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion Sung 2001 Criticisms –Too much focus on the solution “push” – basic research not the only initiator stage –relationship between research and commercialization is too complex to be linear –Users are the key “pull” to the problems and markets

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 13 New Non-Linear Model 2001 study of startup companies across: Software telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%) Innovation: research (12%), development ( 22%), application stage (57%), production (9%) Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35) Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B) Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35% commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education) Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan, leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location Su ng 2001

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 14 Developers Drivers Gates “Microsoft”Xerox Jobs “Apple” Xerox Clark “SGI” E&S, Stanford Clark “Netscape”University of Illinois The Non-Linear

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 15 Make & Sell vs Sense & Respond Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge gap between development and commercialization Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate Venture: Niche markets, public trading (pull) Federal Agencies, SBIR: Mission Based, Linear (push) Universities: Curiosity Based, emerging, (push) Chabol (large companies) hierarchy, products based, (push)

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 16 Media Bandwidth Source: 1999 Fall Meeting, Community Development Council, Chuck Matthews INFOWORLD, Sept DSL/ Cable IEEE 1394 / Firewire Gigabit Ethernet LASER / Fast Ethernet 10BaseT / CAT 5 Microwave / Ethernet G2 Wireless G3 / Wireless LAN ATM G1 Wireless

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 17 Market Redefinition:Radical Change Seven Organizational Change Propositions, Venkatraman 1994

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 18 Solutions for Content Distribution Satellite Cable Terrestrial Internet DSL Wireless IP Gateway Encrypted IP Content Encryptor

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 19 Security Solutions for Data Broadcasting Network operation Center Content Aggregator Rural Infrastructure

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 20 Solutions for Digital Cinema Picture Studios IP Gateway Encrypted IP Encryptor File Servers Digital Projector

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 21 6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce Demassification Denationalization Despacialization Disintermediation Disaggregation Decentralization Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild

University of Southern California Technology Transfer Center 22 Global Competition Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 3 Finland 4 Luxembourg 5 Netherlands 6 Hong Kong 7 Ireland 8 Sweden 9 Canada 10 Switzerland