National / international ops rain, temperature, wind weaknesses & solutions national / international ops rain, temperature, wind weaknesses & solutions.

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Presentation transcript:

national / international ops rain, temperature, wind weaknesses & solutions national / international ops rain, temperature, wind weaknesses & solutions Meteorological information for locust control operations FAO experience Keith Cressman Locust Forecasting Office Rome, Italy Keith Cressman Locust Forecasting Office Rome, Italy

Desert Locust countries 2 / 9 Recession area = 16 million sq. km Invasion area = 32 million sq. km (20% of world land mass) Recession area = 16 million sq. km Invasion area = 32 million sq. km (20% of world land mass) MAU MLI NER CHD SUD ERI EGY SAU YEM SOM OMN IRN PAK IND LIB ALG MOR TUN ETH DJI Migration after summer Migration after winter/spring

Desert Locust programmes 3 / 9 National (Locust Control Centres) Outputs assess situation forecasts (short) plan surveys and control ops 10-day sit reps monthly bulletins Regional (FAO Commissions) national strengthening International (FAO HQ) assess situation forecast (short-medium) advise surveys monthly bulletins interim updates warnings

Desert Locust information flow 4 / 9 International - National - Field - International - National - Field - FAO Desert Locust Information Service Locust Control Centre survey and control teams FAO Desert Locust Information Service Locust Control Centre survey and control teams ( RAMSES data files, reports ) ( forms, eLocust data files )

Current Desert Locust situation / forecast Spring 2005 breeding Gambia G. Bissau Guinea Algeria Western Sahara Libya Morocco Tunisia Cape Verde Mauritania Mali Niger Chad Senegal Burkina Faso bands swarms invading swarms 18 Oct / 9

The situation on the ground... 6 / 9

Meteorological data and Desert Locust 7 / 9 DataActualForecastUse Rainfalltotal daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal breeding migration Temperaturemin/max daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal maturation migration Winddirection speed height 12 hmigration

Weather thresholds 8 / 9 25 mm in two consecutive months > 17°C (copulating & laying) > 15-26°C (take-off) > 9-17°C (sustained flight) < 7 m/s (take-off) < 1800 m (flight heights) 25 mm in two consecutive months > 17°C (copulating & laying) > 15-26°C (take-off) > 9-17°C (sustained flight) < 7 m/s (take-off) < 1800 m (flight heights) Rain Temp Wind varies if solitary/gregarious locusts

Current weaknesses 9 / 9 poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors LCC does not make use of data weak LCC / NMS link FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors LCC does not make use of data weak LCC / NMS link FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products  increase rains stations  reduce transmission errors  indicate data requirements  regional workshop  use forecast products  increase rains stations  reduce transmission errors  indicate data requirements  regional workshop  use forecast products Potential solutions poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors LCC does not make use of data weak LCC / NMS link FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors LCC does not make use of data weak LCC / NMS link FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products