Domestic Policy Making Defining the President’s Agenda – where to find it. State of the Union messages, other public speeches. More specifically, OMB central clearance of legislation, action from agencies; 25,000 items every two years. Resources at the president’s disposal Internal: time (really only about 18 months per term), information (where does it come from?), expertise (Washington experience important? Governors vs. senators?), and energy. External: party support in Congress, public support and electoral margin, reputation. Interaction between all of these.

The Paradox of domestic policy making Policy cycles: decreasing influence over the course of a presidential term (“move it or lose it”) and increasing effectiveness (or capacity). This presents a paradox of domestic policy making: need to move quickly, when you don’t know what to do. JFK, LBJ, Reagan moved more quickly than average, Nixon, Carter, Bush I+II more slowly. What explains the variation? The President’s Agenda Timing: most in the first year, tapers off after that. Start repeating old proposals that don’t pass in the previous year. Kennedy aide quote. Size: constrained by congressional limitations and executive branch capacity to generate new ideas.

Choosing issues Presidential goals -- Reelection. Obviously only applies to first-term presidents. Should the 22 nd Amendment be repealed? -- Good policy. Ideological basis for much policy. Social Security reform and Bush. Conflict with reelection goal, so waited until after LBJ and Vietnam. Reagan and the budget in place in history. Reagan and the Cold War. Clinton and welfare reform. Bush and peace in the Middle East, but he will be defined by Iraq. Source of Issues Patterns – which issues are “hot” at any given time? Education, war on drugs, energy, environment, war on terror.

Choosing issues, cont. Sources of issues. Where do they come from? – Internal: Campaign and platforms. The president and staff. – External: Congress is the biggest source of presidential ideas. Congress has to be willing to share credit. Events: crises such as 9/11. Other examples? Executive branch: from career bureaucrats. Public, interest groups, the media also can be the sources of ideas.

Setting the agenda Defining Alternatives: who will gain, who will lose? Strategic choices: JFK and civil rights, Reagan and Bushes and the Christian right. Don’t want to hurt the rest of your agenda. But Clinton and gays in the military. Symbolic versus substantive. How to define symbolic policy? Light argues that presidents don’t engage in much symbolic policy. Depends on how you define it. War on poverty, energy crisis (Carter “moral equivalent of war”), war on drugs, war on terror?

Programmatic choices Positive or negative (use the veto or not?) Ratio of vetoes to size of the agenda (LBJ largest, Ford the smallest). Veto is a low-cost way to have influence, but only up to a point. Administrative or legislative? Executive orders and agreements, dismissals and appointments, reorganization. Size (large or small policies?) Shift in recent years to smaller policies. New or old – recycle old ideas. Fewer new ideas recently. Spending versus non-spending – shaped by the state of the budget and the willingness to raise taxes. Selecting alternatives: have to consider the economic, political and technical costs.

The “no win” presidency Increasing competition from Congress for scarce domestic policy space. Increasing fragmentation and complexity of the policy process in Congress Decreasing influence Increased oversight from Congress, the press, and the public. Change in issues to more difficult, “constituency- less” issues (Social security reform is a good example).

Future and Prospects for Change How to be successful as President (Paul Light) -- “Move it or lose it.” Learning can wait. -- Satisfice, don’t maximize. -- Don’t try too much innovation -- Avoid details -- Reelection comes first -- No cabinet government -- beware of the spokes of the wheel

Future and Prospects for Change, cont. The transformational president -- Russell Riley Takes a Neustadtian view of the presidency, but looks at the constraints that impel action rather than obstruct it. Transformational presidents are fundamentally about preservation – Civil War, the New Deal (it was about economic recovery). Civil Rights – only happened when it was necessary to restore peace. Transformational leadership also indicates presidential failure (of the previous president) Too much of a focus on “change” in our definition of presidential leadership. If we always focus on change, we will be disappointed.

Reforms Synchronized terms for the President and Congress “Team ticket” – require straight ticket voting for President and Congress Give party leaders more influence over presidential nominations Strengthen parties in Congress and in campaign finance “Question time” for the President before Congress. Schlesinger’s Electoral College proposal. A six-year term with no term limits. Other ideas?