Time is of the Essence: When and how do past elections and rival parties matter for party policy positioning? Zeynep Somer-Topcu Department of Political Science University of California- Davis

Dissertation ElectionsΔparty policy

Dissertation Performance exogenous effects (e.g. being in government, economic outcomes) (e.g.9/11) ElectionsΔparty policy Δother parties systemic effects (e.g. electoral system, number of parties) organizational effects e.g. new leaders, factions

Dissertation Performance exogenous effects (e.g. being in government, economic outcomes) (e.g.9/11) ElectionsΔparty policy Δother parties systemic effects (e.g. electoral system, number of parties) organizational effects e.g. new leaders, factions

Research Questions What affects party policy positioning in advanced industrial democracies? –Do the movements of rival parties affect party policies? –How do past election results affect party positioning? –When do parties respond to these factors?

Motivation Responsiveness/ Accountability Expectations of spatial models / either no empirical analysis or inconsistent results Real world examples ““We have an agenda,” [Blair] said, “and it’s not secret. It’s to win the next general election.” This uniform style, opponents say, proves that Labor will change any position and silence any dissent in its desire to win. “If Labor had a collective grandmother,” Prime Minister John Major charged last week, “it would sell it.”” (NY Times, Apr 28, 1997)

Dissertation Performance exogenous effects (e.g. being in government, economic outcomes) (e.g.9/11) ElectionsΔparty policy Δother parties systemic effects (e.g. electoral system, number of parties) organizational effects e.g. new leaders, factions

Influence of Rival Parties Downs (1957): Two vote-seeking parties Adams (2001): Vote-seeking parties in multi-party systems Wittman (1990): Policy-seeking parties Adams & Merrill (2006): multi-party systems, policy-seeking parties Smirnov & Fowler (2007): policy-motivated parties; “as one party’s ideal point becomes more extreme, the equilibrium platforms of both parties move in the direction of the more extreme party” (20). Prediction: Political parties respond to rival parties’ policy shifts by shifting their own policies in the same direction.

Influence of Rival Parties Eaton and Lipsey, 1975 –Full information –Vote-seeking parties adjust their policies in response to these proximate parties’ policy shifts Budge, 1994; Laver, 2005; McGann, 2002 –Lack of information –“Aggregating” parties will be especially responsive to policy shifts by adjacent parties in the policy space (Laver, 2005; McGann, 2002) Prediction: Parties are more responsive to policy shifts by members of their ideological family than to the policy shifts of other parties in the system.

Dissertation Performance exogenous effects (e.g. being in government, economic outcomes) (e.g.9/11) ElectionsΔparty policy Δother parties systemic effects (e.g. electoral system, number of parties) organizational effects e.g. new leaders, factions

Past Election Effects Prospect Theory: “how we interpret our choices, as gains or losses, influences how much risk we will take” (Mercer, 2005) Individuals are risk-acceptant with respect to losses and risk-averse with respect to gains Laver (2005): Hunter strategy Fowler and Laver (2005): KQ-Strat Empirical Findings: Nagel, 2001; Adams et al, 2004, 2006 Organizational stiffness: “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” Prediction: The more votes the party loses (gains) at the previous election, the more (less) it will change its policies at the current election.

Elapsed Time Matters Increasing uncertainty/ New issues Budge (1994), Baker and Scheiner (2004), Fowler(2005) Prediction: The longer the time since the previous election, the less past election result influence the magnitudes of parties’ policy shifts at the current election. Parties are conservative organizations (Panebianco 1988, Janda et al 1995) lagged response Prediction: The longer the time since the previous election, the more the rival parties’ (and also spatially closer parties’) mean policy shifts influence parties’ policy shifts at the current election.

Hypotheses H1a: The more votes the party loses (gains) at the previous election, the more (less) it will change its policies at the current election. H1b: The longer the time since the previous election, the less past election result influence the magnitudes of parties’ policy shifts at the current election. H2a: Political parties respond to rival parties’ policy shifts by shifting their own policies in the same direction. H2b: Parties are more responsive to policy shifts by members of their ideological family than to the policy shifts of other parties in the system. H2c: The longer the time since the previous election, the more the rival parties’ (and also spatially closer parties’) mean policy shifts influence parties’ policy shifts at the current election.

Empirical Implications Data: Comparative Manifesto Project –left-right dimension 25 democracies, 193 elections time period: Two dependent variables: directional change/ magnitude of change OLS, clustered by election date (different clusters and panel corrected standard errors produce the same results)

Conditional past election effects Parties respond to past election results when they are losing and the effect is conditional upon time elapsed since the last elections. After about 3 years, parties do not respond to past election results.

Conditional Effect of Mean Change of All Parties There is a positive relationship between party policy change and rival party shifts. The effect is conditional upon time elapsed since the last elections. Parties start responding after about 2 years.

Conditional Effect of Mean Change of Proximate Parties There is a positive relationship between party change and proximate party shifts. This effect is also conditional on time elapsed since the last elections. Parties start responding after 38 months

Conclusion Past election results motivate parties for policy change if they lose. This effect is much more pronounced for the period immediately after the elections and dissipates as time elapses. Parties respond to other parties in their respective party systems with some delay. As the time since the last elections elapses, the effect of policy changes in other parties becomes much more pronounced.

Dissertation Performance exogenous effects (e.g. being in government, economic outcomes) (e.g.9/11) ElectionsΔparty policy Δother parties systemic effects (e.g. electoral system, number of parties) organizational effects e.g. new leaders, factions