Climate Information and Agricultural Risk Management A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making T. A. Crane*, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+, J. O. Paz*, K. T. Ingram#, K. Broad+, G. Hoogenboom* * University of Georgia, + University of Miami, # University of Florida

Outline Research methods and setting Interactions with weather and climate information systems Potential adaptive strategies Challenges to forecast use Farmers’ suggestions for usability

Methods and Research Setting Sample: 38 farmers Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia Methods: Semi- structured interviews –Weather and climate information systems –Climate variability and risk mgmt. strategies –Potential adaptations

Methods and Research Setting Sample: 38 farmers Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia Methods: Semi- structured interviews Mixed production systems Avg. 2 per operation Production SystemFreq. Row crop31 Produce (conv. & org.)10 Cattle8 Pine plantation7 Hay4 Pecans3 Sows2 Peach2 Turf grass1 Goats1 Poultry1

Weather & Climate Info Sources Daily use, often accessed multiple times –Spraying –Planting –Irrigation Confidence low beyond 3-5 days Wives & children are often internet users; information gateways SourceFreq. Weather Channel (TV)18 Local TV16 Data Trans. Network9 Online (indeterminate)9 Weather.com6 Farm Magazines4 Cell phone4 GAEMN4 Local Radio3 Local Paper2 Weatherbug.com2 Accuweather.com1 NOAA (online)1 NWS (online)1 Farmer's Almanac1

Weather & Climate Info Sources Passive exposure to climate forecasts 90-day forecasts not used in agric. decisions –“Conversation piece” –“Peace of mind” Collective credibility SourceFreq. Weather Channel (TV)18 Local TV16 Data Trans. Network9 Online (indeterminate)9 Weather.com6 Farm Magazines4 Cell phone4 GAEMN4 Local Radio3 Local Paper2 Weatherbug.com2 Accuweather.com1 NOAA (online)1 NWS (online)1 Farmer's Almanac1

Adaptive Management Options Cropping strategy –Corn or cotton ? –Dry land corn ? –Soil : crop : forecast ? Forward contracts ? Planting schedule –Dry year pine planting ? –Late frost risk ? Potential UseFreq. Crop selection23 Planting timing16 Input management14 Land management13 Variety selection11 Marketing8 Harvesting dates4 Insurance3 Herd management2 Hog lagoon mgmt.1

Adaptive Management Options Potential UseFreq. Crop selection23 Planting timing16 Input management14 Land management13 Variety selection11 Marketing8 Harvesting dates4 Insurance3 Herd management2 Hog lagoon mgmt.1 Forecast Use: Irwin County Spring 2006 forecast for summer drought  widespread shift from long- to short-cycle peanut variety

Non-Climate Variables as Management Drivers Agronomic requirements Commodity prices Insurance constraints Input prices Credit options Policy environment –Price supports –Trade policies –Immigration laws Relative uncertainty of forecasts compared to non- climate variables = competition as mgmt. driver

Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts Discrepancy in scales of forecasts & decisions –Temporal –Spatial Inexperience with climate forecasts –Unawareness of potential –Skepticism of accuracy Discrepancy in understandings of key concepts –Probability –Accuracy

Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts Difficulty in processing additional information –Time –Mental energy Inflexibility of highly-capitalized operations –Indebtedness –Infrastructural investments –Large acreage Potential for actors to leverage info over farmers –Lenders –Insurers –Brokers

Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS Create recognizable identity for DSS –“Show the people behind it” –Association with land-grant university Communication –Use lay-users’ language –“Show you understand what it means to be a farmer” –Layer information for different users Cultivate habitual reference to site –Regular outreach –Keep information updated

Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS Enable users to evaluate forecasts –Publish forecast history –Publish forecast performance records –Explain probability upfront Integrate users’ feedback into product development and assessment

Questions? This research was supported by funding from NOAA USDA-RMA USDA-CSREES