© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent. Class 2: Environmental Scanning

 To understand the concepts of Framing and Scanning;  To understanding of scanning methods used by to spot weak signals of change;  To understand the cognitive pitfalls that hinder interpretation in the scanning process;  To begin scanning. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Framing  Framing  Identify a Topic or category of importance for the future  Define the interaction of the System in play  Build Consensus on goals and objectives  Contextualize your topic © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Scanning  Scanning  Gather signals of change from “ Experts”  Assess the reliability of the signal source  Interpret the meaning of the signal  Synthesize the information from a systems perspective © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

FramingScanning Iterative Process © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Environmental Scanning (Radar) Deep Dives (Research) Ongoing, continuous Broad scope Project-specific Focused scope (i.e. crisply framed) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 WEAK SIGNALS of change  It needs to be relevant  But if it is TOO relevant, it is not a WEAK signal  “Diamonds in the Rough” signals that are repeated across scanned sources 8 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 Adopt a Systems Perspective  Scan The Environment  Assess the Source  Keep an Open Mind 9 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 DEGEST  Demography  Economy  Government  Environment  Society  Technology STEEP –Social –Technological –Economic –Environment –Political © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Demographic Societal Governmental Technological Environmental Economic Synergies, Contradictions, Questions © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Companies tend to narrow their field of view… …Interesting change tends to occur at the periphery …Blind spots also occur at the periphery © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

To develop good peripheral vision… Explore Unfamiliar and “Uninteresting” areas Seek out “Remarkable People” Know your “Adjacencies” © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Websites I recommend: © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Break up into groups of 3-4 Scan the Foresight web page for an interesting scanning hit What business sectors will it affect? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Primary Questions to Consider: 1.How knowledgeable is the source? 2.Is sufficient evidence provided? 3.Does the source have any bias? Methods to Validate your source: 1.Scuttlebutt: listen in on what others are saying about your source (blogs, etc) 2.Laddering – step down one or more rungs into your source’s references © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Purposes Sources ASSERTION OF FACTS IDEAS & INTERPRETATIONS OPINIONS AuthoritativeBESTPossibleMaybe Contended (peer reviewed) Possible, but be careful BESTPossible Contended (not peer reviewed) Possible, but be very careful Possible, but be carefulBEST Popular/FringeNot recommendedPossible, but be very careful BEST © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

For your scanning hit… Who is the source? How might you validate? Expertise? Evidence? Bias? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Keep an Open Mind! © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Seeing What One Has Learned to See How is this relevant to our class? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 The more expertise one has in a given field, the less likely that person will be to see a solution outside of the framework within which that person was taught to think. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 “Knowing so much about what you know that you are the last person to see it differently” Edie Weiner, Futurist  “Each of us responds, not to the world, but to our image of the world.” Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View  E.g. Engineers will look for a technical solution within their area of expertise © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Can you spot how they do it? The Amazing Changing Color Card Trick 95&feature=iv&src_vid=voAntzB7EwE&v=v3iPrBrGSJM © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 The more focused we are on a challenge, the more likely we are to overlook obvious information © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Anchoring “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain Causes us to “Judge Too Soon” Confirmation Bias Availability Bias © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Selective Perception Educated Incapacity Anchoring Confirmation Bias Availability Bias © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 Consider new and contradictory information  Challenge your own beliefs  See the world through “Alien Eyes”  Challenge the assumptions and conclusions  Invert “Figure and Ground”  Defer judgment © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Figure-Ground …Factors that can distort our perspective © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 Scanning improves with a structured approach – Core Competency  Cognitive Biases need to be managed  Always Be Scanning… Sometimes Dive Deep (“Radar”) (“Research”) 30 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 For Next Class…  Read – State of the Future Exec. Summary  Homework Assignment  Scanning for a trend ▪Graph, Photograph, Paragraph ▪Due _______________ © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Student Name: Section: © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

 Bill Marquard “Finding The AND”  7 PM Date TBD  102 DeBartolo As a consultant, Bill Marquard has advised some of the world's most influential and forward-thinking companies. Having also served as a C-level leader, he has walked the executive's path. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

Posted Electronically  Scan for Evidence of Change  Categorize Your “Scanning Hit”  Assess the Evidence and Source  Discuss Implications for Business  3 Rounds of Entries  New Scanning Hit – Due _____  Respond to a Posted Scanning Hit – Due ____  Another New Scanning Hit – Due _____ © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved