Spatial Data and Analysis in Support of Improved Policy and Planning Christopher Auricht John Dixon 21 June 2012

Talk outline  Context and Background  Needs  Issues and status of spatial data  Methodology used in developing an updated farming systems dataset and analysis for Sub- Saharan Africa  Status and future work 2

Facts  According to CGIAR analysis  One billion of the worlds poor within Africa and Asia (those living on less than $1 per day) are fed primarily by:  hundreds of millions of small-holder farmers (often with less than 2 ha of land, several crops, and a cow or two), or  Herders (most with fewer than five large animals) 3 Solution  Develop sustainable farming systems that improve efficiency gains to produce increased food production

One Billion People Suffer Chronic Hunger and Poverty 4

Scale of Rural Hunger  Nearly one billion people experience debilitation, health-threatening hunger each year  4 out of 5 of these people are rural farmers 5 Trends in maize shortage in Zambia Percentage of farm households with maize shortage The Hunger Period

6 Hunger Hotspots Superimposed on Farming Systems Source: InterACADEMY Council 2004

Population density and underweight children under five Sources: CIESIN and Hunger Task Force (A and B, unpublished data) And GAEZ database 7

Background  Business as usual investments in agriculture unlikely to deliver sustainable solutions in many countries  Numerous issues often identified as barriers to progress e.g. inefficiencies in program delivery, political uncertainty etc. These are not the only problem!  Existing systems (often under stress) have been, and are expected to continue to accommodate large increases in population, increasing urbanisation, rising demand for animal products and competition for land and water  Forecasts suggesting that current practices will not stay abreast with population growth, environmental change and increasing demand for animal products. 8

Needs  Requires a strategic approach, an appreciation of scale, and an understanding of the interactions between and within systems 9

The current ACIAR project  Builds on the work of Dixon et al

2001 Farming Systems and Poverty  Global study – part of the World Bank Rural Sector Review  Widely accepted as pioneering body of work – looked at things as a ‘surface’ across landscape not confined by country borders  Largely driven by LGP/AEZ and market access, supplemented by expert opinion  Extensively used to guide investment at the program level and frame analysis in numerous global studies  Approach focused on high level farming systems within six developing regions  Involved use of various thematic data layers to underpin the delineation, characterisation / description and subsequent analysis of systems 11

12 Program Application

13 Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems

Sub-Saharan Update  Farming systems website in FAO still one of the most visited sites within the organisation  Previous study 10 years old  Consistent seamless datasets somewhat limited in original work  In need of updating as spatial extent of systems and frame conditions changed e.g. climate, population, urbanisation, market access etc.  Many updated and new datasets available 14

Current Situation  2012 – Large quantity of potential datasets – approx. 300 alone in the Harvest Choice database  longitudinal and some predictive data now available  GAEZ ,000’s of datasets representing 100’s of thematic layers  Challenge – which ones to use and how  Strategic approach  Access and collation  Assess (fit-for-purpose) and Prioritise (currency, coverage, scale etc)  Process  Products  Disseminate 15

Methodology  Work in collaborative fashion with authors and other large data providers e.g. IFPRI – Harvest Choice, UN-FAO, ILRI, ICRAF, IIASA, CGIAR others 16 Delineate new Farming System Boundaries – Iterative process based on concept of central tendancy Statistics and Analysis Characterise and describe systems

Approach  Integration of new datasets –  LGP and Market access  Supporting Datasets  Population (rural, urban, total)  Livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, LU and TLU  Crop areas and production  Yield gaps  Protected areas  Poverty  $2.00 and $1.25 /day  Nutrition 17

Elevation Slope, aspect, drainage Settlements, ports, markets Road, rail, river, ICT networks Market travel times & costs Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow Port travel times & costs Terrain, Demography, Infrastructure, Admin Units Production Environment & Constraints Production Systems & Performance Interventions/ Responses Agroecological Zones Cropland extent & intensity Pests & Diseases (Maize Stem Borer) Drought Incidence & Severity Runoff Administrative Units Farming Systems Crop Suitability: Rainfed Wheat Crop Distribution & Yields Value of Production per Rural Person Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CC Profitability of small scale irrigation Quantity of Nutrients Removed Fertilizer Profitability Distribution of Welfare Benefits Linkage to Macro Models Aggregate to FPUs Source: HarvestChoice

19 Changes between 2001 and 2012

Updated FS Boundaries and LGP 20

Yield Gap – Aggregate of Major Crops 21

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Big questions for management and policy  What is it?  Where is it?  What are its characteristics and how does it operate ?  What are the risks/threats ?  What are the opportunities (Research / Extension) ?  How changing with time ?  Evaluation and Performance 23

Spatial data  Tool to support process  Understand  Analyse  Develop interventions  Monitor  Not the answer in itself   has limitations  Fit for purpose  Complement with expert knowledge 24

Thanks  Acknowledgements  ACIAR  IFPRI – Harvest Choice  CGIAR  ILRI  ICRAF  FAO  IIASA  others  Questions & Discussion 25