Strategy and Nuclear Weapons NationalNational Security GoalsStrategy Global Environment But: technology influences strategy

Developments and Debates Early 20 th century: Airpower Mid to late 20 th century: nuclear weapons 21 st century: cyberweapons

US Strategy to 1890s Total War: Richmond 1865

1890s: Naval Power Alfred Thayer Mahan ( )

The Rise of Airpower: 20 th century Two Views Airpower is a novelty Airpower is decisive – Giulio Douhet (Italy) – William Mitchell (US)

WW II Strategic Bombing Tokyo May 9-19, 1945

Dresden (1945)

August 6, 1945 Hiroshima

Hiroshima Before After

August 9, 1945 Nagasaki

Nagasaki: Before and After

“The Absolute Weapon” Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon, 1946

First Nuclear Age, s 1.Bipolarity – balance 2.Deterrence – vulnerability 3.Arms Control – Managing rivalry 4.Rationality Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present 1.Multipolarity – asymmetry 2.Deterrence – missile defense 3.Arms Control – coercion 4.Rationality

First Nuclear Age s 1.Bipolarity – balance 2.Deterrence – vulnerability 3.Arms Control – Managing rivalry 4.Rationality

1. Bipolarity An Arms Race – Spiral theory US and USSR rough equality Balance of power Triad – ICBMs – SLBMs – Bombers

ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile

Launch Tube Hatches on USS Alabama

Strategic Bombers

Two Arms Races by 1960s 1.Offense-offense 2.Offense-defense

Early ABM Systems Johnson Administration: “Sentinel”

2. Deterrence Strategies of Deterrence 1.Warfighting – JFK: Flexible Response – Nixon: Limited Nuclear Options: NSDM-242NSDM-242 – Carter: Countervailing Strategy: PD-59PD-59 – Reagan: Prevailing Strategy: NSDD-13NSDD-13

MIRVs Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles

Strategies of Deterrence 2. Assured Destruction Deterrence = Second Strike capability “Balance of Terror” – Albert Wohlstetter, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2 (January 1959):

Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins” US Second strike US USSR

US Second Strike Capability Soviet First Strike US Second strike Scenario: Everyone Dies US USSR

US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals ICBM SLBMBombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheadslaunchers/warheads US Strategic Nuclear Forces

US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals ICBM SLBMBombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheadslaunchers/warheads USSR/Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces

Sources: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Nuclear NotebookNuclear Notebook Natural Resources defense Council Archive of Nuclear DataArchive of Nuclear Data

3. Arms Control Management of the arms race Cut costs Increase predictability Increase transparency “Essential equivalence”

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Cold War Era SALT I – Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972 Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972 – ABM Treaty 1972 ABM Treaty SALT II Agreement 1979

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties End of the Cold War Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I 1991 START II 1993

Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Post-Cold War Era Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 New START Treaty 2010

Critics of Arms Control Soviet ICBM Superiority? “Window of Vulnerability” USlauncherswarheadsSovietlauncherswarheads Titan54 SS Minuteman II450 SS ,080 Minuteman III5501,650SS ,980 Total1,0542,154Total7465,492

Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Nixon to Reagan 1. Mobile Missiles – MX Multiple Protective Shelters systemMultiple Protective Shelters

Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Reagan to present 2. Missile Defense Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983SDI

4. Rationality The logic of parity/equality The logic of deterrence The logic of management of the arms race STRATEGIC STABILITY