Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat Principal Scientists Fernandes, J.M.C., Del Ponte, E.

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Presentation transcript:

Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat Principal Scientists Fernandes, J.M.C., Del Ponte, E. M. 2, Pavan 3, W. and Cunha, G. R Embrapa Trigo, Passo Fundo, RS, , Brazil; 2 Department of Plant Patholoy, Iowa State University , Ames, IA, USA; 3 ICEG, University of Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, , Brazil.

Agriculture Crops:Wheat Abiotic Factors Biotic Factors

WHEAT DISEASES Powdery mildew Glume blotch Tan spot Spot blotch Take all BYDV Blast Leaf rust

Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT

Mycotoxins DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat Zero Barley

+ PATHOGENSUSCETIBLE HOST = FHB + WEATHER (P, T ºC) FHB Model

WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO

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Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 114 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 156 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 495 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 212 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 719 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1078 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 134 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 886 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1418 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1595 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 225 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 486 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1636 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 1951 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1788 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 198 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 713 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 502 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 1926 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1839 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1453 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 243Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 889 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1497 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 732 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 2331 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1958 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1294 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 172 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 1094 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1923 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 2471 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 1187 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 2652 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1885 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1136 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 287 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 798 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 2355 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 3151 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3361 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1732 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 2399 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1555 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 843 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 287 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 798 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 2355 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 3151 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3361 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 1732 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 2399 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1555 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 843 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 238 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:927 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 1.92 Flowers: 1027 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 1.8 Flowers: 2861 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 2.52 Flowers: 3149 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 1.72 Flowers: 2998 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1453 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1879 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 1092 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers:536 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 176 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:971 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 3,59 Flowers: 1724 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 4,95 Flowers: 1183 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: 5,93 Flowers: 3035 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 6,76 Flowers: 2878 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 5,03 Flowers: 2253 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 4,19 Flowers: 855 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 3,15 Flowers: 1200 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 1,04 Flowers:622 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 0,62 Flowers: 253 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0,31 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 32 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:1119 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 2003 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.65 Flowers: 2652 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1509 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3127 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: 9.36 Flowers: 2442 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 7.80 Flowers: 1694 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 5.85 Flowers: 468 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 2.85 Flowers:709 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.17 Flowers: 306 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.58 Flowers: 83 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.09 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:647 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 2370 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 3194 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3455 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1900 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 2630 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 9.48 Flowers: 1823 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.11 Flowers: 1102 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 3.69 Flowers:211 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.67 Flowers: 333 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.71 Flowers: 95 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.13 Flowers: 76 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.02 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers:303 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 1048 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 2916 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3256 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3174 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1682 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: 9.48 Flowers: 2136 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 7.11 Flowers: 1335 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 3.69 Flowers:733 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 1.67 Flowers: 125 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 0.71 Flowers: 113 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.13 Flowers: 97 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.02 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 393 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 1220 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3108 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3001 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 2416 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1043 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1384 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 6.09 Flowers:776 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads:3.11 Flowers: 355 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 1.43 Flowers: 43 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.37 Flowers: 112 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.14 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 19 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 567 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1593 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3258 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 2610 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1880 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 645 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: 9.69 Flowers: 854 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 5.27 Flowers: 401 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 2.51 Flowers: 123 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.73 Flowers: 48 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.50 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 428 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 3501 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1977 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 2734 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1945 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1224 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 317 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 6.79 Flowers: 407 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 3.28 Flowers: 127 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.98 Flowers: 117 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 0.76 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 2950 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1368 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1759 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 2228 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1431 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 820 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 8.42 Flowers: 187 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4,09 Flowers: 141 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.26 Flowers: 135 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.03 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 2239 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 567 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1029 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 938 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1420 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 811 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 382 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 56 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 130 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 462 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 448 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 639 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 852 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 403 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 125 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 53 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1222 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 316 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 408 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 128 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 120 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1464 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 850 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 209 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 151 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 150 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 1325 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 738 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 406 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 68 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 145 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 269 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 100 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 22 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 92 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 14 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION Incidence = 65 % Severe

Day: |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||| Flowers: 0 Heads: 4 Inf.Heads: 0.48 Flowers: 0 Heads: 16 Inf.Heads: 5.04 Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: 8.91 Flowers: 0 Heads: 42 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 48 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 40 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 30 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 20 Inf.Heads: Flowers: 0 Heads: 12 Inf.Heads: 9.72 Flowers: 0 Heads: 6 Inf.Heads: 4.74 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.47 Flowers: 0 Heads: 2 Inf.Heads: 1.25 FHB - SIMULATION Incidence = 65 % Severe

Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems in the Argentinean, Brazilian and Uruguayan Pampas Principal Scientists Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina Gilberto Cunha, Brazil J. Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia

CROP MODELS DSSAT - Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Wheat Model (Soil-H 2 0, Soil N, Plant phenology, biomass, weather variables) FHB Sub-model Heading starts

Weather inputs Historic daily weather Scenario daily weather Wheat crop model Agronomic inputs Early spring wheat Nine sowing dates Three-day intervals Soil properties Model output FHB incidence

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA SCENARIO

Important Points Models using climatic variability and trend analysis are tools for defining FHB-risk More frequent FHB epidemics Raise food safety concerns There is a need for breeding more resistant wheat

Decision Support System Apple diseases Warning System Fusarium Head Blight System