Power Transition Theory Organski & Kugler, Lemke

Introduction End of Cold War How should the United States attempt to manage world politics (China)? How will critical alliances (NATO) evolve? How can regional conflicts be managed? How will nuclear deterrence affect the stability of deterrence?

Components of Power Transition Theory Structure Dynamics Policy

The Structure of PT Theory The international system is hierarchical. A dominant nation sits at the top. Challengers: those with 80% or more of the dominant country’s power There are also regional hierarchies.

Measuring power The number of people who can work and fight Economic productivity Effectiveness of government in extracting resources War is most likely when there is parity (equality) between the dominant power and (dissatisfied) challenger.

Dissatisfaction The dominant power establishes the status quo (SQ). Some great powers are satisfied with the SQ, others are dissatisfied. Dissatisfaction can be based on historical, ideological, religious, territorial, personal, or cultural factors Dissatisfied states want to change the SQ, or the rules of the game.

Alliances Nations that share common preferences will form stable alliances (NATO). Alliances between satisfied-dissatisfied states will not last long.

Dynamics Countries may experience internal power transitions Potential paths for economic growth The most dangerous condition: a rapidly growing nation with larger population surpasses a dominant nation with a smaller population

Why Conflict Arises Power transition theory predicts that war (global or regional) will be most likely when: There is parity between the dominant power and challenger, and 2) The challenger surpasses the dominant power (overtaking), and 3) The challenger is dissatisfied

Empirical Tests of PT Theory Relative Power Distribution Major War Preponderance Parity, no Parity & Transition Transition NO 4 6 5 YES 0 0 5   Source: Organski & Kugler (1980)

Empirical Tests of PT Theory Power Distributions in Local Hierarchies in South America War Preponderance Parity, no Parity & Transition Transition NO 12 4 1 YES 0 0 2   Source: Lemke (1996)

Potential Future Transitions China overtaking the US India overtaking either China or the US in the last half of the 21st century

Policy Prescriptions Expand NATO to include Russia and perhaps China Change the permanent UN Security Council members Manage satisfaction through democratization and trade

Policy Prescriptions Settle territorial disputes, such as Taiwan Prevent nuclear proliferation Manage local crises, but the US should not be a policeman for the world