Constitutional Reform: Confrontation looms as Hong Kong consults April 2014 Michael E. DeGolyer Professor, Government & International Studies HKBU Director, Hong Kong Transition Project

18 Dec Jan permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone1007 permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval+/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project, supported by a grant from the Community Development InitiativeResearch conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project, supported by a grant from the Community Development Initiative

Is the System Working? vs 2014 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with life in Hong Kong?

Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong BY Age groups/BY Occupation Majorities dissatisfied under 40, Managers & Admin, Professionals, Students The skills we need & The future

Currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government From unrest, to no unrest, back to unrest? Circles same size, Same height Neither Tung nor Leung had majority satisfied

Satisfied with performance of SAR Government BY Age/BY Occupation Under 40s overwhelmingly dissatisfied Students highly dissatisfied

Satisfaction with performance of SAR Gov dealing with PRC Gov 2004 was peak dissatisfaction (when Tung did not leave) 2014 dissatisfaction same level as June 2004

Currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRC Gov in dealing with HKSAR Affairs ? Dissatisfaction with PRC peaked when Tung appeared supported by PRC Government, dropped as soon as Tung was clearly on way out

Satisfaction with PRC Gov handling of SAR affairs BY Age/BY Occupation Under 40s highly dissatisfied Students, Associate professionals highly unsatisfied

Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRC Gov in ruling China? Unprecedented dissatisfaction since 1997 founding of SAR starts in 2010, with constitutional reforms

Satisfied with the performance of the PRC Gov in ruling China BY Age/BY Occupation Under 40s majority dissatisfied Students & Associate Professionals high dissatisfaction rates

Satisfied PRC Gov rule of China/BY Satisfied with life in Hong Kong/BY Satisfied performance of SAR Gov Strong correlation of Satisfaction with PRC gov rule of China and Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong Even stronger correlation of Satisfaction with PRC rule of China and Satisfaction with SAR Gov performance

Satisfied PRC rule of China BY Satisfied PRC handling of SAR affairs Stronger correlation between Satisfaction with PRC rule of China and Satisfaction with PRC handling of SAR affairs

Satisfied PRC rule of China BY Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance Strongest correlation of Satisfaction with PRC rule of China and Satisfaction with CY Leung’s performance

Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance BY Age/BY Occupation Overwhelming dissatisfaction among those under 40 Extreme dissatisfaction levels for students, professionals, educators, associate professionals, clerks, managers & administrators

Satisfied with CY Leung’s performance BY Which party represents you best Fairness in policy-making BY satisfaction with Leung’s performance DAB very unrepresentative of public

How much do you believe that CY Leung:

How much do you believe CY Leung will implement fair Chief Executive election in 2017 BY Age/By Occupation Extreme levels of disbelief under 30 Students extreme, other occupations very high disbelief

Why are so many people so dissatisfied and disbelieving?

Which problem of Hong Kong are you most concerned about now personally? Political issues highest level ever

Satisfaction with Gov performance on problem of most personal concern BY Age Dissatisfaction extreme under 40

Hidden burdens, unfairly distributed Approximately what percentage of your personal income do you contribute to your parents? Nearly half bear aging burden with little government help Burden of aging highest for under 30, but even 12% over 60 still help their parents

Satisfaction with life in Hong Kong BY % Personal income contributed to parents Which party represents best, distribution of Satisfaction with life in HK. Radical parties attract most dissatisfied Dissatisfaction with life in Hong Kong significantly higher among most burdened

Which is the most appropriate description of you? Extreme volatility of identity indicates sharp values conflict underway

Which is the most appropriate description of you? Identity is clearly in flux (previous slide) and differs greatly generationally: “Generation GAP” profound across many variables

Which of these do you consider the most important to you personally to see protected and promoted? No mention in consultation document of international standards or pluralist nature/heritage of Hong Kong

Preference of Identity to Protect & Promote BY Age Under 40s much more preference of Hong Kong as pluralistic and international

Which party represents you best? Pre-2010 reforms consolidated parties; post 2010 shattered parties, consensus harder

Which party represents best, Small rise in pro-government support, larger rise among pro-democracy groups

Which party represents best, BY Age Radical parties clearly dominate under 40s, especially (and younger)

Which party represents best, BY Occupation Students clearly look to Radical Democrats in large numbers, but also large “no party” group

Which party represents best, BY Personal identity Radical parties/Hong Kong person identity becoming defined in opposition. A negative identity (“Hong Kong is NOT like China”)

500,000+ Radicals? About 20% to 25% of under age 40 look to People Power, League of Social Democrats, Neo-democrats, Labour Party, and hard line members of Civic Party as best representing them and protecting their interests. Under 40s show very high levels of dissatisfactionAbout 20% to 25% of under age 40 look to People Power, League of Social Democrats, Neo-democrats, Labour Party, and hard line members of Civic Party as best representing them and protecting their interests. Under 40s show very high levels of dissatisfaction About an equal proportion of those who say “no party” best represents them (1/3 of total, about 10% of population over 18) are equally dissatisfied as the group above. But they feel no one best represents them, thus no one “leads” them.About an equal proportion of those who say “no party” best represents them (1/3 of total, about 10% of population over 18) are equally dissatisfied as the group above. But they feel no one best represents them, thus no one “leads” them.

What changes to the System are supported?

Support direct election of Chief Executive Overwhelming and highest yet recorded support for direct election of the Chief Executive

Support direct election of all Legco members Highest level yet of strongly support for direct election of all Legco members

Support direct election of all Legco members BY Age/BY Occupation Extremely high support under 40 Extremely high support among administrators & managers, professionals, associate professionals, clerks and students

Summary Table on Options Nearly two thirds oppose making the Chief Executive Election Committee, unchanged, into the Nomination Committee Abolishing FCs or reforming dramatically overwhelmingly supported

Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017? TREND BY Age groups Opposition has strengthened significantly since 2013, especially under age 60.

Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017? BY Occupations: Managers & Admin most strongly opposed

Support or oppose: Keep CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017? BY Which party represents you best DAB/FTU supporters’ views clearly NOT representative of majority

Support or oppose: Abolish FCs for Legco but keep them for the CE Nominating Committee TREND BY Occupation Sentiment starting to move against abolishing FCs for Legco but keeping for Chief Executive Nomination Committee, esp. among students, managers, professions

Support or oppose: Abolish only the traditional small circle 30 FC seats TREND BY Occupation Support to abolish up, esp. among students, assoc. professions and managers & admin

Support or oppose: Abolish FCs in all forms for all purposes TREND BY Age Support for complete abolition up, especially under age 40

Support or oppose: Replacing 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats TREND BY Age Support down, opposition up for replacing FCs with “super seats” except among youth

Support or oppose: Replacing 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats BY Which party represents best However, all political parties show majority support

Support or oppose: Replacing all FC seats with directly elected GC seats, half elected by first past the post single member districts, half elected like other geographic seats? TREND BY Which party represents best Support for replacing FCs with combination of half first past post, half proportional hit majority overall and in all parties

Support: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in each constituency? Ending corporate voting, equalizing franchise in all constituencies strongly supported

Support: : increasing right to vote in small circle FC seats until all legislators represent roughly equal constituencies? TREND BY Which party represents best Increasing voters to match other FC Legco seat franchise no longer supported. Current Legco qualified voting no longer acceptable.

What will they do if nothing changes, or change is unfair? Within the past year express concern or seek help from the following: Note drop in use of formal means of expressing concerns in Same drop in Indicates loss of confidence in normal means of policy feedback. Remove protests (PRO) & 2014 even lower than 2002.

Do you currently support or oppose the possible Occupy Central protest in July 2014? Very few “Don't Know or have not heard of Occupy Central

Support 41%, Oppose 59% Of those with a view, 59% oppose. But 41% who support are younger, better educated, have stronger belief in pluralism and internationalism

Support/Oppose Occupy Central BY Occupation Strong majority of students support OC, but also support among professionals, assoc professionals and managers & administrators

Support/Oppose Occupy Central BY Age Majorities of teens and 20s support OC

Support/Oppose Occupy Central BY Education Support for OC rises with education level

Reaction to events What happens to support or opposition to Occupy Central if...What happens to support or opposition to Occupy Central if...

Would the following make you change your mind to support or oppose the Occupy Central protest: HK Gov finishes consultation & issues a report before 1 July 2014? 53% opposed/25% support if report issued (if HKGov takes action without delay) Versus 59% opposed/41% support in 1 st question Don't Know responses want to see what is in report first.

If Gov acts promptly Support for Occupy Central drops; oppose drops lessSupport for Occupy Central drops; oppose drops less Don't Know increase, drawing mostly from support Occupy Central respondentsDon't Know increase, drawing mostly from support Occupy Central respondents Clearly respondents want to see details of the reportClearly respondents want to see details of the report

Would the following make you change your mind : All Pan-democratic parties call for support of Occupy Central 57% opposed/39% support now Versus 59% opposed/41% support

If pan-democrats unite Support for Occupy Central rises from 25-27% hardcore support as in first two questions where government acts promptly, to 39% with 5% Don't KnowSupport for Occupy Central rises from 25-27% hardcore support as in first two questions where government acts promptly, to 39% with 5% Don't Know But, what if pan-democrats split?But, what if pan-democrats split?

Would the following make you change your mind : Radical democratic parties call for support of Occupy Central 63% opposed/31% support now Versus 59% opposed/41% support

If pan-democrats split over reforms 57% opposed to Occupy Central if pan-democrats split. 5% more Don't Know, so opposition could go even higher depending on how and over what causes split.57% opposed to Occupy Central if pan-democrats split. 5% more Don't Know, so opposition could go even higher depending on how and over what causes split. But what if Beijing government strongly opposes Occupy Central?But what if Beijing government strongly opposes Occupy Central?

Would the following make you change your mind : Beijing government warns against joining Occupy Central 53% opposed/43% support now Versus 59% opposed/41% support If Beijing interferes, 10 point drop in opposition, a 12 point rise in support for OC over levels seen above if radical democrats only support OC

Reactions: People want government to act quickly, but deliberately and fairly taking consultation into accountPeople want government to act quickly, but deliberately and fairly taking consultation into account If pan-democrats all support Occupy Central, support risesIf pan-democrats all support Occupy Central, support rises If pan-democrats split, support falls and opposition rises, possibly as high as 69% opposed depending on Don't Know reactionsIf pan-democrats split, support falls and opposition rises, possibly as high as 69% opposed depending on Don't Know reactions If Beijing interferes, support rises and opposition falls just as dramatically...If Beijing interferes, support rises and opposition falls just as dramatically...

Reactions: People clearly want reform settled within Hong Kong, by Hong Kong government taking prompt but fair action that protects key valuesPeople clearly want reform settled within Hong Kong, by Hong Kong government taking prompt but fair action that protects key values They oppose pan-democratic splitsThey oppose pan-democratic splits They oppose Beijing interferenceThey oppose Beijing interference But will they act if they feel they must?But will they act if they feel they must?

How worried are you about violence and damage to Hong Kong’s economy from an Occupy Central demonstration? A majority are very or somewhat worried

Worry about violence & damage to economy BY Gender Very unusually, more males than females are worried

Worry about violence & damage to economy BY Occupation Very unusually, students are most worried group. Next highest professionals and business related managers and administrators

Worry about violence & damage to economy BY Preference of Identity to Protect & Promote Highest worry among majority who want Hong Kong’s identity as pluralistic protected and promoted.

Worry about violence & damage to economy BY Age Those under 40 and particularly under 30 worried

Worry about violence & damage to economy BY Support/oppose Occupy Central Those most supportive of Occupy Central most worried. They support OC despite fear of violence and economic damage.

Conclusion 1. Those most likely to participate, those most supportive, and those most educated and the youngest, worry most about violence and economic damage from Occupy Central. 2. Many expect Occupy Central will experience violence; nevertheless, from 1/4 to 1/3 or more still express support. Minimally 1 million people+ support. Clear warning signs: a significant proportion of the population is bent on confrontation if they feel their views are ignored and their values are endangered. Many doubt the fairness of a consultation before it barely began. Many feel their preferred form of identity is not being protected. They are committed to confrontation, if necessary, despite fear of effects.

Conclusion If the promise of fair election of the Chief Executive and of having a real choice of candidates is broken, there will very likely be very strong reactions. These reactions, many fear, will not be peaceful or without damage to Hong Kong’s economy. After all, the objective of Occupy Central is to bring home the cost of ignoring democracy to the main occupants of Central: Big Business and National Government. Many appear grimly determined to confront if this consultation, in their eyes, fails to be fair and fails to protect the values of pluralism and internationalism.

Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project Details of methods and earlier reports available at: Hong Kong Transition Project Research since 1988 has been funded by RGC grants, grants from National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, Civic Exchange, The Women’s Foundation and many other local and international NGOs, and Community Development Foundation The Hong Kong Transition Project is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary, multi-national academic research project committed to good governance and the highest standard public policy research