The Millennium Project July, 2007

 Real Time Delphi to identify variables, “best and worst” forecasts, and weights for SOFI.  Construction of the 2007 SOFI, using these variables, with attention to national SOFIs.  Establishing National SOFI Standards  Systematizing Excel spreadsheet approach for national SOFIs

No VariableImport 1 4 Improved water source Literacy rate, adult total Corruption School Enrollment, secondary People Living in Extreme Poverty Nuclear Proliferation Carbon dioxide emissions Percent unemployment Energy consumption per GDP Number of armed conflicts 8.18

RankVariable Global Import BestWorst 17 People in Countries that are Free or Partially Free Global Surface Temperature Anomalies GDP per capita People voting in elections Healthcare workers (Physicians, nurses, midwives, etc.) Internet Users Infant mortality Forest Lands Life expectancy at birth Seats held by women in national parliaments Number of refugees, asylum seekers, displaced persons Total Debt as percent of Gross National Income Percentage of global income concentrated in US, others Homicides, intentional Number of university courses on futures Prevalence of HIV

 Intellectual –Literacy, enrollments, R&D, Internet  Health –Life expectancy, infant mortality, physicians, HIV, food  Wealth –GDP/cap, unemployment, poverty, debt service  Security –Terrorist attacks, nuc proliferation, refugees  Moral –Corruption, freedom, voting, women in parliaments  Physical –Water, CO2, forests, temperature, renewables

Dashboard Experiments: Getting Worse

Health, Intellect, and Wealth

R&D expenditures Corruption Improved water sources Percent unemployment School Enrollment, secondary Renewable Energy Energy consumption per GDP Internet Users GDP per capita Physicians per 1000 population Literacy rate Population growth rate Forest Lands People voting in elections Life expectancy at birth Food availability Infant mortality Number of refugees Homicides, intentional Total Debt as percent of Gross National Income Seats held by women in national parliaments Prevalence of HIV People Living in Extreme Poverty Carbon dioxide emissions People killed or injured in terrorist attacks Global Surface Temperature Anomalies Nuclear Proliferation Number of infectious diseases Number of armed conflicts People in Countries that are Free

 Global  National Comparison  National Focus

Global SOFINational ComparisonNational Focus VariablesStandard set Based on global; same for all countries. Newly chosen for the country Historical data Global data for last 2 decades National data for last 2 decades Best and Worst estimates Chosen for global forecasts Use global estimates New values for the new variables and the country Weights Chosen for global forecasts Use global estimates New values for the new variables and the country TIA Developments Chosen for global forecasts Use global developments Developments important to the future of the country TIA Development Probabilities Estimated for global TIA developments Use global TIA development probabilities Global TIA values for global developments; new estimates for country specific developments TIA Development Impacts Estimated for global TIA developments and variables Use TIA development impacts as they might affect the country

 History of variables and extrapolation  SOFI Baseline  TIA Developments  Events and Variables  TIA (and macro)  SOFI with TIA

 Excel spreadsheets  Reports Millennium Project Study of State of the Future Index Variables and Their Use in Country to Country Comparisons (the Real Time Delphi) Building the 2007 SOFI A Standardized Approach to Building National SOFIs

 Produce robust “enterprise level” software  Review and utilize the "standard" for national SOFI's  Construct and compare national SOFI’s  Conduct an analysis designed to find whether country SOFI’s (weighted by population) add up to the global SOFI.  Experiments with other applications (e.g. corporate SOFI’s)  Consider other dimensions (e.g. a measure of national innovativeness)  Review and improve TIA judgments  Construct on line data bases of variables and events to facilitate national and other applications.