1 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for the Africa Region - Integration and Communication of V&A Analysis - Maputo, Mozambique April 2005 Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group Joel Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc.

2 Outline Integration of Results General Points Cross sector and multi-sector integration Setting priorities Vulnerability Adaptation Communications Conclusions

3 Why is Integration Important? Necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can affect another Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly Others just indirectly Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the affect of climate change in another sector

4 Integration of Impacts Two Main Types Cross-Sector Integration Link related Sectors Multi-Sector Economy or System wide Integrated Assessment Models Economic Models

5 Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct Climate Effect In a recent study, crop yields in California were generally estimated to increase with climate change In one scenario, a 25% reduction in water supply results in a net loss of $1 billion/year to California agriculture

6 Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad. WEAP Evaluation Planning CROPWAT Regional irrigation CERES Crop water demand WATBAL Streamflow PET SCENARIOS GCM SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology

7 Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline (1990 absolute; 2060-optimistic/pessimistic percentage change from 1990)

8 Multi-Sector Integration

9 IMAGE Model

10 Regional/National Economic Models Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with non-market impacts Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models Require a lot of data Can be expensive Can be complex Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

11 An Example of a Regional Model

12 A More “Simple” Approach Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple end points Need to account for a lot of sectors Does not capture sectoral interactions

13 Estimates of Damages for India by Mendelsohn SectorDamages ($ billions) Agriculture-53.2 Forestry+0.1 Energy-21.9 Water-$1.2 Coastal Resources-0.1

14 Can Also Measure # of People Affected Millions at Risk study did this Global burden of disease

15 At a Minimum Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts If only can examine crops, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

16 Setting Priorities Vulnerability Adaptation

17 Prioritization of Vulnerabilities It can be quite useful for Focusing adaptation measures Monitoring Adaptation

18 Process is as Important as Outcome This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise Need to include stakeholders and policy makers The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

19 NAPA Process

20 Adaptation Policy Framework Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards C1C2C3C4C5C6 System/ Region/ Hazard Social impacts Economic impacts Environmental impacts Political impacts Ranking A B C

21 OECD Method

22 Ranking Adaptations Screening Multi-criteria assessment Benefit-cost analysis

23 Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

24 Multi-Criteria Assessment OptionsEffectivenessFeasibilityCostScore A3227 B24410 C5139

25 Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in Kazakhstan

26 Ranking Based on Scenario

27 Benefit-Cost Analysis Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs Monetary values often used Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties Difficulty: requires a lot of data and analysis

28 BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

29 What to Use

30 Presenting Results in Your National Communication

31 UNFCCC Decision 17/CP.8 “... non-Annex I Parties should provide information on their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change, and on adaptation measures being taken to meet their specific needs and concerns arising from these adverse effects.”

32 Communication The National Communication (NC) needs to clearly communicate vulnerability and adaptation findings Fine to describe methods and results of analyses But, needs to synthesize and integrate results The NC needs to clearly communicate Who and what is vulnerable How that may vary across time and geographic region What is needed to be done to adapt Where and when

33 First Thing: Remember Purpose Who is the audience for the NC? What kind of information do they need? How can it most effectively be presented to them?

34 Presenting Vulnerabilities We’ll cover two things Clearly presenting results Presenting who and what is most vulnerable

35 Clearly Presenting Vulnerability Findings The key is Organization Clarity Simplicity

36 Seychelles First NC

37 Tanzania’s First NC

38 From Users Manual

39 Relative Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Impacts

40 Presenting Adaptation Results Present identified adaptations in a clear manner Evaluate or rank adaptations Consider possible effectiveness within your country

41 Seychelles: Adaptations

42 South Africa: Evaluation

43 Conclusions Integration is important to at least identify related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be surprises Integration can also be useful for examining total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities Clear synthesis and reporting of results is important Analytic methods exist for analyzing and ranking adaptations

44 Some Final Thoughts

45 “To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail” Methods or models are a means to get an answer Before addressing the answer, we must consider the question(s) being asked

46 These Questions are Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions