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EL NIÑO UPDATE and OUTLOOK (MAY – OCTOBER 2015) Prepared by: Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD) PAGASA –DOST 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority CONTENTS

The Weather and Climate Authority INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION CENTERS SUMMARY CPC/ International Research Institute (IRI) As of : 27 April 2015 El Niño conditions are present; There is an approximately 70% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (JJA), and a greater than 60% chance it will last through autumn (SON). Tokyo Climate Center/JMA -Japan As of : 10 April 2015  El Niño event, which emerged in Northern Hemisphere summer 2014, is likely to have ended in winter 2015 and ENSO-neutral conditions are present;  It is likely that El Niño conditions will redevelop by Northern Hemisphere summer Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)-Australia As of : 28 April 2015 Tropical Pacific approaches El Niño thresholds; All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the southern hemisphere spring (SON). APCC, APEC Climate Center, Busan, S. Korea As of : 23 April 2015 Persistent positive temperature anomaly across the tropical Pacific consistent with the weak El Niño. Dry conditions may persist over the maritime continent and Central America. ADVISORIESGLOBAL Weak El Niño condition is present in the tropical Pacific!

The Weather and Climate Authority Niño Region SST Departures ( o C) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño 41.3ºC Niño ºC Niño 31.0ºC Niño ºC As of: 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected) Issued: 27 April 2015 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño through NDJ

The Weather and Climate Authority MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST MAY – OCTOBER 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority May 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal Normal (mm) ( ) Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority June 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal Normal (mm) ( ) Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority July 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal Normal (mm) ( ) Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority August 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal Normal (mm) ( ) Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority September 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal Normal (mm) ( ) Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority October 2015 Forecast (mm) % Normal Normal (mm) ( ) Monthly Rainfall Forecast Updated: 27 April 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority DROUGHT/ DRY SPELL OUTLOOK Reduction : 21%-60% reduction from average Reduction : > 60% reduction from average

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FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes in (mm) and (%N) - (May– October 2015)

The Weather and Climate Authority FORECAST RAINFALL at Monitored Dams in Luzon in mm and Percent Normal (%) - (May– October 2015)

The Weather and Climate Authority FORECAST RAINFALL AT MAJOR RIVER BASINS in mm and Percent Normal (%) - (May– October 2015)

The Weather and Climate Authority FORECAST RAINFALL in different Administrative Regions and Island Group in mm and Percent Normal (%) - (May-October 2015) way below normal below normal near normal above normal

The Weather and Climate Authority Monthly Rainfall Forecast (May – October 2015)

The Weather and Climate Authority COMPARISON OF 2015 FORECAST AND ACTUAL 2014 RAINFALL

The Weather and Climate Authority MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY - SEPTEMBER 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (May-July 2015) Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (16°C-25°C) Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer (22.5°C °C) Lowland Visayas – Near average (23°C-34°C) Lowland Mindanao – Near average (23°C-34°C) Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler (18°C-31°C) Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (16°C-26°C)) Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer (23°C-35.5°C) Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer (23.5°C-33°C) Lowland Mindanao – Near average (22.5 °C-34 °C) Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler (18°C-29°C) Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler (16°C-22.5°C) Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer (23.5°C-34°C) Lowland Visayas – Near average (22.5°C-33°C) Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer (22.5°C-33°C) Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler (18.5°C-29°C)

The Weather and Climate Authority FORECAST MEAN TEMPERATURE (Aug – Sept. 2015) Mountainous Luzon – Near average Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer Lowland Visayas – Slightly warmer Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer Mountainous Mindanao – Near average Mountainous Luzon – Slightly cooler Lowland Luzon – Slightly warmer Lowland Visayas – Near average Lowland Mindanao – Slightly warmer Mountainous Mindanao – Slightly cooler

The Weather and Climate Authority MONTHPrevious Forecast Current Forecast May1 or 20 or 1 June2 or 31 or 2 July2 or 33 to 5 August3 or 42 to 4 September2 or 32 to 4 October-2 or 3 Tropical Cyclone FORECAST

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Initiatives of PAGASA on the current El Niño Conduct of Climate Outlook Forum – National at the PAGASA Central Office (monthly); – Local Fora in partnership with partner NGOs at various areas in the country (i.e., municiplaities in Samar, Leyte, Quezon, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, etc.) – Local Climate Forum for Mindanao Stakeholders (Cagayan de Oro City); Membership/Attendance to Technical Working Group (TWG) meetings; ₋Department of Agriculture (thru PCAF meetings, Agripinoy Quarterly Planning Workshop) ₋TWG for Angat Dam thru the National Water Resources Board ₋Membership with Food Security Committee on Rice Matters thru NEDA Refresher Workshop on Climate Information and Seasonal Forecasting for PAGASA PRSD-Mindanao

The Weather and Climate Authority Monitoring of the Climate System: Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) and Southern Oscillation Global advisories on El Nino Status Continuous Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature conditions and Forecast Update Assessment of Dry Spell Situation and Outlook at Possible affected areas; Issuance of Advisories/Press Release as necessary Dissemination of latest climate information (monitoring and forecast) thru quad-media. Climate Services on Current El Niño

The Weather and Climate Authority SUMMARY Weak El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific with chances of strengthening toward the end 2015; Onset of the rainy season associated with southwest monsoon is expected to commence by mid-June Higher air temperature may be experienced during the forecast period (May- September 2015) Tropical cyclones may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from May – October 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority SUMMARY 4 Provinces will likely to experience dry spell; 42 provinces affected by drought/dry spell and likely to improve; 12 provinces affected by drought/dry spell and likely to continue;

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Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v3b Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, W)]. For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.here