Ontario Electricity Industry : Planning Ahead Amir Shalaby VP, Power System Planning Ontario Power Authority Presentation to Canadian Nuclear Society The Role of Nuclear Power in Future Generation Planning in Ontario May 4, 2006

2 I will Describe the State of Resource Planning in Ontario Describe the widening supply gap and challenge ahead in Ontario Describe options to meet Ontario’s future needs Present a Ten Point Action Plan that the OPA is recommending to the Minister of Energy Chart the next steps in planning for Ontario

3 OUTLOOK FOR ELECTRICITY IN ONTARIO

4 Meeting Requirements with Conservation, Renewables, Nuclear and Natural Gas

5 Electricity Production Over 20 Years

6 Supply Mix Action Plan to Ensure Future Reliability and Flexibility 1.Plans must adapt to different possible futures 2.Move immediately to capture conservation opportunities 3.Acquire up to 5,000 MW of wind generation 4.Seek to achieve full biomass and waste potential to generate electricity 5.Continue to closely monitor risks to the coal replacement schedule

7 Supply Mix Action Plan to Ensure Future Reliability and Flexibility 6.Adopt a ”smart gas” strategy by using gas only in high value applications 7.Pursue hydro imports 8.Investigate the potential to refurbish existing nuclear units 9.Initiate approvals and permitting for new nuclear 10.Develop policies and plans for the transmission to integrate the supply options

8 What is the Market like in Ontario? Recent contracts indicative: –nuclear refurbishments: $63/Mwh –renewable energy: $80/Mwh –standard offer for small facilities $ /Mwh –RFP awards for gas-fired generation Forward price auction –$73/Mwh ± to 2010 Spot market prices are lower on average

9 NEXT STEPS IN PLANNING FOR ONTARIO Feedback on the Supply Mix to the Minister (January – April 2006) Direction to OPA – Spring 2006 Integrated Plan prepared and filed with OEB – Fall 2006 Regulatory Review of Integrated Plan – Winter 2006