Coping With City Shrinkage: A Critical Review of Housing Market and Urban Development Policies in the City of Erfurt (Germany) 2001 – 2011 Dr Simone Allin School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment Property Management and Development Group

20 May Eisenhüttenstadt/Stalinstadt 2010 Source: Stalinstadt-Eisenhuettenstadt.html (24/03/2011). Stalinstadt-Eisenhuettenstadt.html

20 May Background Research is based on previous findings of Master Thesis, completed in 2001 (University of Kaiserslautern, Germany) Today’s presentation refers to initial results of on-going review of urban development policies and housing market strategies in the City of Erfurt over the past 10 years

20 May Overview 1.Introduction: Urban development trends in Germany before/after Focus: Housing market in Eastern Germany after Case study: Housing market in the City of Erfurt, Thuringia 4.Review of Erfurt’s housing market strategies and urban development policies between 2001 – Conclusions and outlook

20 May Population in Germany – 1990 Source: (23/03/2011).

20 May Population in Germany – 2000 Source: (23/03/2011).

20 May Population in Germany – 2010 Source: (23/03/2011).

20 May Population in Germany – 2060 Source: (23/03/2011).

20 May ‘We are shrinking and getting older.’

20 May Economic transformation/recession Source: (28/03/2011). Finance Retail Industry/ Production Unemployed persons GDP (= BIP) Services

20 May Share of Brownfield Sites across Germany Source: (28/03/2011).

20 May Urban development implications: Leipzig Source: (28/03/2011).

20 May Urban development implications: Leipzig Source: (24/03/2011).

20 May The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990  Approx. 776,000 new dwellings built between Source: (28/03/2011).

20 May The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 Migration between 1980 – 1999 Source: (28/03/2011) ,000

20 May The extreme case of the housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990 Vacant dwellings according to Microcensus 1998: → 729,000 dwellings = 13.2% of whole stock Source: (28/03/2011).

20 May Case study: Erfurt, Thuringia Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 25.

20 May Erfurt’s housing market – present stock (2006) Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 46.

20 May Erfurt’s overall settlement structure Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 47.

20 May Erfurt 2020 – Urban development ‘Leitbild’ Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 117.

20 May Erfurt 2020 – Diversified intervention framework Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 125 & 127. Example of a refurbished large housing estate

20 May Erfurt 2020 – Allocated funding & interventions Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 133.

20 May Erfurt’s policy framework Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, pp. 134ff. Informal ISEK 2020 & formal local land use plan (adopted in 2006) Masterplan II: jointly developed by Erfurt’s city council & all local residential building societies/ cooperatives > focus on re-development of remaining large-scale industrial housing stock in the city-region Sectoral development concept – historic city centre (~ area action planning) Conceptual urban development scheme ‘Ilversgehofen’ (~ area action planning) Other diversified urban development initiatives

20 May Review of Erfurt’s policy framework between 2001 – 2011: some initial reflections Situation 2001: Draft local land use plan (FNP); no ISEK; Masterplan I; INNOVA (i.e. private consultancy) survey reports on housing market related issues only Situation 2011: Adopted local land use plan; ISEK 2020; revised Masterplan II; urban development monitoring system  disintegrated policy situation in 2001; also reflected by fragmented institutional responsibilities  improved integration of relevant policies and institutions through collaborative work on comprehensive informal and formal urban development policies (i.e. FNP & ISEK) and housing market specific Masterplan II

20 May Critical review of measures undertaken before 2005 & their implications Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 44.

20 May Critical review of measures undertaken before 2005 & their implications Masterplan I (city council & 4 large housing societies): - focus on demolition of large-scale GDR industrial housing stock (especially, estates built after 1970s’ and in suburban areas), - although also high vacancy rates in historical city centre > reason: in the longer-term, development of inner-city locations is regarded more sustainable  But: What happens to vacant sites? Any interim or longer- term solutions? What are the wider implications of demolished infrastructure? How can diverse private owners of historical housing stock in city-centre be persuaded to refurbish their properties?

20 May Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed after 2005 & their implications Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 42; BMVBS: 4. Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 53, 83.

20 May Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed after 2005 & their (potential) implications Masterplan II: - summary re demolition: 7,555 dwellings in total until 2009; vacancy rate dropped from 15.1% (2002) to 4.6% (GDR industrial housing stock only) > now classified as ‘stable conditions’ - successful integration in comprehensive urban development strategy: long-term planning & development objectives (> 2020): reasonable mix of flexibility & clear constraints - revised focus on consolidation of selected areas & parts of the City’s housing stock, based on urban ‘Leitbild’  But: How will Erfurt cope with projected 2. wave of shrinkage and need for extensive refurbishment from 2016 onwards?

20 May Some initial conclusions Obvious policy shift between 2001 – 2011: from demolition to careful development/refurbishment > sustaining Comprehensive urban development/land use policy framework has become primary source of consultation & must now provide base for future integration Thus, for example, all housing market (monitoring & development) strategies – incl. allocation requirements of state funding etc. – must be embedded in this framework Present and most significant shortcoming: missing (city-) regional perspective on urban development, housing market and related policy-making: inter-city cooperation often hampered by negative perceptions and competition…

20 May Focus of future research Qualitative part: Further in-depth investigation & evaluation of effectiveness and integrative capacity of urban development and housing market policies in Erfurt Quantitative part: Collection, analysis and modelling of available demographic and housing market data in order to evaluate the performance of specific market segments, related targets and measures > could be used as a ‘tool’ for informing future policy-making

20 May Thank you! Source: BMVBS: 4. Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 94.