111 Ready to Succeed Update An exploration of secondary and post-secondary educational outcomes for foster children in California K. Frerer, L. Sosenko, & N. Pellegrin Dec.10, 2009 The Ready to Succeed Project is supported by the Stuart Foundation

222 Ready to Succeed: Overview of Presentation Secure database linking process Initial match statistics Segment: K-12, Community College, & University County Age at entry Comparison group Propensity score matching Analysis plan Revised time line

333 Ready to Succeed: Secure File Transfer Process CSSR CWS/ CMS CWS/ CMS Flat File Names SSN Dummy ID CP Encrypted File No Names No SSN Dummy ID Cal-PASS FY File Cal- PASS Academic Records (Multiple Files) FY Non-FY Control Groups CDSS

4 Ready to Succeed: Initial Match Statistics- By Segment 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , ,000 MatchNo matchMatchNo matchMatchNo match K-12Community CollegeUniversity N= 101,659 N= 365 >1% N= 97,695 N= 4,329 4% N= 66,166 N= 35,858 35% Match by Segment Link K-12 & Community College data (no University)N=2,119 K-12 & University data (no Community College)N=156 Community College & University data (no K-12)N=96 K-12, Community College, & University dataN=37

5 Ready to Succeed: Initial Match Statistics- By County Match by County Sample and Segment CountyCounty SampleK-12Community CollegeUniversity FresnoN=15,5407,318 (47%) 1,390 (9%)130 (<1%) SacramentoN=27,4998,292 (30%) 68 (<1%)144 (<1%) San BernardinoN=25,7808,304 (32%)1,351 (<1%) 71 (<1%) San DiegoN=33,205 11,944 (36%)1,520 (<1%) 20 (<1%) % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% K-12Community CollegeUniversity Match by Segment and County San Diego San Bernardino Sacramento Fresno N=35,858N=4,329N=365

6 Ready to Succeed: Initial Match Statistics- Age at Entry Match by Age at Entry and Segment Age at entry Total K-12Community CollegeUniversity 0-2N=35,003 5,002 (14%) 224 (<1%)13 (<1%) 3-5N=18,525 6,177 (33%) 367 (2%)37 (<1%) 6-10N=24,75312,894 (52%)1,250 (5%)86 (<1%) 11-15N=19,081 9,810 (51%) 1,882 (10%) 179 (2%) N=4,489 1,963 (44%) 603 (13%)53 (1%) MatchNo MatchMatchNo MatchMatchNo Match K-12 Community CollegeUniversity Age at Entry Mean Age at Entry by Match/No Match and Segment

777 Ready to Succeed: Propensity Score Matching FY Students Non-FY Students Matching methods, such as propensity score matching (PSM) and full exact matching, reduces bias in the comparison group by achieving balance on observed covariates. For each foster youth a set of non-foster youth is selected with the same relevant characteristics.

888 Ready to Succeed: Covariates Used for Matching K-12: school, ethnicity, gender, age, disability, home language, parent education, free/reduced lunch CC: school, ethnicity, gender, age, disability, three financial aid indicators: any aid, BOGG, Pell Grant, participation in Extended Opportunity Programs and Services (EOPS) UNIV: school, ethnicity, gender, age, enrollment status (transfer student, first-time freshman, … )

999 Ready to Succeed: Size of Comparison Groups Segment Students in Pool of Participating Schools Students Selected for Comparison Group % in Comparison Group K-121,470,243730,07250% CC1,597,077371,14923% UNIV333,18649,91115%

10 Ready to Succeed: Report Approach, Analysis Plan Will include: ● Process description ● Match & no match statistics, by overall, segment, county, & various demographics ● Comparison group matching methodology Question 1: What are the secondary and post-secondary education and/or training outcomes for foster youth in California? Research Questions: Question 2: What factors facilitate or impede successful completion of secondary and post-secondary education and/or training for foster youth? Approach---Create age appropriate cohorts & separate by segment

11 Ready to Succeed: Analysis Plan Update Question 1: What are the secondary education outcomes for foster youth in California? What factors facilitate or impede successful completion of secondary education? Question 2: What are the post-secondary education outcomes for foster youth? What factors facilitate or impede successful completion of post-secondary education and/or training for foster youth? Foster children and comparison group H.S. diploma receipt/award type Possible education -- ● CAHSEE scores, English/math ● CST scores, English/math grades ● AP classes/algebra 2 ● School quality/ school type ● School changes Child welfare— ● Removal reason ● Maltreatment type ● Age at entry ● Length of stay ● Exit type ● Entry vs. re-entry ● Primary placement type ● Placement changes Award receipt/type Possible education— ● Units attempted/completed ● Transferrable credits

12 Ready to Succeed: Timeline Update 12 12/17 Final education data received by CSSR. 1/6 Final combined education and social service dataset complete. 2/11 Meeting to review initial analyses to refine follow-up analyses and draft report outline. 3/5 Follow-up analyses and write-ups due. 3/19 Report 1st draft to internal reviewers. 4/16 Reviewers comments due on report 1st draft. 5/11 Send 2nd draft of final report to CDSS and Stuart. 5/25 Reviewers comments due on 2nd draft of report. 6/15 Final report complete.