National Focus, Local Touch COLLABORATION IS THE KEY Ellis M. Stanley, Sr., CEM General Manager, Emergency Preparedness Department City of Los Angeles

Geography and 100 Years of History, Dictate Preparedness Geography UNIQUE SEISMIC FAULT SYSTEM LOS ANGELES IS A DESERT AND IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WE HAVE MOUNTAINS ON WHICH WE BUILD HOUSES, CREATING IDEAL LANDSLIDE AND MUDFLOW CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH WE ARE PART OF A HUGE URBAN AREA, WE HAVE WILD FIRES

History LOS ANGELES RESPONDS TO TEN EVENTS, EACH SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRESIDENTIAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS 20th Century MORE PEOPLE DIED IN LOS ANGELES AS A RESULT OF FLOODING THAN FROM EARTHQUAKES

Researchers Interest Societal Needs New Capabilities Tomorrows Values Strategy Scientific Organizational Competencies Community Leadership Opportunities Shaping a Scientific Strategy

This is a national problem But Southern California alone has half the Nation’s risk

The Big One — Which one do we pick? All 300 of them

How bad will it be? So big you can’t drive away from the disaster Disruption to infrastructure

All railroads and freeways into Los Angeles cross the San Andreas fault

Major impacts Disruption to transportation Midrise construction Highrise?Dams

Fires?? If the earthquake happens during Santa Ana conditions

Science alone cannot stop the loss  The community must use the science to make decisions before we proceed.

Implications for Southern California Quantitative hazard assessment (importance of science) Economic interdependence Cost per day of delayed business recovery Cost per day of delayed business recovery Long-term economic impacts Loss of market share Loss of market share Plans for economic recovery Plans for economic recovery Plans for rapid rebuilding of lost infrastructure Plans for rapid rebuilding of lost infrastructure Being isolated for weeks on end Being isolated for weeks on end

New Efforts in FY2007 A systematic analysis of the southern San Andreas fault Additional stream gauges to support flood analysis and forecasting Debris flow early warning system for burned areas with NWS A new process to determine future research directions with the decision makers of southern California

Community Partners Who will be involved? Governmental Partners Academia Private Sector NGOs

Why integrate the science? We need the same data We serve the same customers We share the same goals Improved understanding of the urban-earth interface Improved understanding of the urban-earth interface A safer southern California A safer southern California

Then and Now 1971 M6.7 San Fernando Earthquake 1994 M6.7 Northridge Earthquake 1999 M7.1 Hector Mine Earthquake Magnitude and Epicenter 12 hours 45 minutes 1.5 minutes ShakeMapNever 2 months 5 minutes Aftershock Probabilities Never 1 day 30 minutes

Real-Time Earthquake Data Notification for emergency response ShakeMap Decision making Loss estimation Aftershock probabilities

Integrated Warning System Components: System Effectiveness Governance, Capacity-Building Monitoring and Assessment Public Education, Preparedness System Institutionalization

Warning Systems & Protective Action Data Collection and Analysis Warning Decision Warning Content, Timing, etc. Warning Dissemination Public Perception Confirmation Self -Protective Action TechnologyGovernance Emergency Communications Cycle Public Education & Preparedness

Warning of imminent earthquake shaking Strong shaking travels at 2 miles/sec.