Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics & Sources Central Statistics Office Business Statistics Seminar 26 th February 2008 Dr. James Gillan Department of Enterprise Trade and Investment Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland Business Statistics Produced under National Statistics Protocols –“The primary aim of National Statistics is to provide an accurate, up-to-date, comprehensive and meaningful picture of the economy and society to support the formulation and monitoring of economic and social policies by government at all levels” Primarily conducted by DETI (NISRA staff) Collected under the Statistics of Trade and Employment (NI) Order 1988 –Statutory –Confidential Statistics Advisory Committee consulted on Burden on Business obligations

Labour Force Employee Jobs Claimants Redundancy Earnings Labour Market Macroeconomic Northern Ireland Regional GVA Employee jobs: QES Employee jobs: Census Index of Production Index of Services Annual Business Inquiry Business Register Business Activity Research & Development Manufacturing Exports Northern Ireland Economic Statistics NI Regional Data Service Exports Innovation Index of Construction

Comparison of LFS and QNHS LFS Use ILO Definitions HH survey with wave structure Weighted to population (age/sex/region) 3,250 HH’s per qtr (0.5% of all) Sampling error – higher –Employment CV ~1.3% –Unemployment CV ~8.3% 16+ population (school age) Calendar Qtrs, Rolling-Monthly & Rolling Annual data Quarterly from Spring ‘95 QNHS Use ILO Definitions HH survey with wave structure Weighted to population (age/sex/region) 39,000 HH’s per qtr (2.7%) Sampling error – lower –Employment CV ~0.4% –Unemployment CV ~2.4% 15+ population (school age) Seasonal Quarter data

Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in school- leaving age.

Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in school- leaving age.

Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) is a business survey that has been carried out in Northern Ireland since 1978 and provides estimates of the number of employee jobs in NI. QES counts the number of jobs rather than the number of persons with jobs. For example, a person holding both a full-time job and a part-time job, or someone with two part-time jobs, will be counted twice. The QES has a sample size of approximately 5,400 and covers all public sector bodies, all private sector firms with 25 or more employees and a sample of the remainder. The sample size has been chosen in order that estimates of total employee jobs should be accurate to within +/- 1% of the Northern Ireland Census of Employment total. No directly comparable Republic of Ireland employee jobs measure.

Public Sector jobs in NI and Ireland (Indexed): Sources: Republic of Ireland: Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment UK: ONS

Proportion of all jobs in Public Sector in UK, NI and Ireland: Sources: Republic of Ireland: Quarterly National Household Survey & Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment UK: ONS

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) UK-wide sample survey that provides a wide range of information on hourly, weekly and annual earnings by gender, work patterns, age, industry and occupation inter alia 1% sample of N. Ireland PAYE, completed by employer only. 2,500 businesses; C. 6,000 persons; response rate of 97%; CV 1.5% median gross f/t wages Replaced New Earnings Survey in 2004 to address weaknesses in design: Improved coverage (flows on/off PAYE) Results weighted to LFS employee population by age, sex, occupation, region Median values used in preference to mean to report earnings Provides estimates of basic and total paid hours worked. LFS for actual hrs. Carried out by Office of National Statistics (ONS) in Great Britain, and by Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland

Comparability between NI and RoI earnings statistics The National Employment Survey (NES) is currently the most comparable annual survey of earnings (c. 8,000 selected enterprises) to ASHE in the Republic of Ireland. SIC/NACE and occupational coverage is broadly comparable. Differences include sample design, grossing (QNHS SIC); The NES 2006 reference period was at March 2006, while the ASHE reference period is always April of each year. While the NES is being conducted annually from 2006 onwards, an annual time-series does not currently exist. The NES is moving to an October reference period which may further reduce comparability Caution if using earlier surveys for comparisons

Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees in the private sector in NI and UK, * The introduction of methodological changes to improve the quality of ASHE data has resulted in discontinuities in trends.

Median gross weekly earnings (£) for full-time employees, 2006 UK and Ireland

Northern Ireland Regional Accounts The first official estimates of GDP for NI were published in Official and consistent estimates covering all UK regions did not appear until More recently the production of the UK “Regional” Accounts has been the responsibility of the ONS. –Gross Value Added (-2006), by Industry to 2004 –Gross Disposable Household Income (-2005) and –Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-2001) –Individual Consumption Expenditure (-1999) Public Expenditure information for NI and the UK published by HM Treasury treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/finance_spending_statistics/pes_publications/pespub_index.cfm

DETI ABI and CSO Sectoral Inquiries ABI Meets Structural Business Reg Coverage Part Agriculture; Production, Construction, Services excluding Finance, No public sector (with exceptions) All 20+ Manufacturing Sample by SIC Section and Size band 4,500 Reporting Units, c 1% Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU Employment (Sept.) and costs, Limited expenses breakdown Trade in services; e-commerce UK consistent, ONS modelling CIP, ASI, CBC….. Meets Structural Business Reg Similar coverage (Finance) All 20+ Manufacturing CIP total sample size 5,000 ASI total sample size 25,000 Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU Employment (Sept.) and costs, family business; ecommerce More detailed LU financial info Includes exports and imports Much more detailed business expenditure information

NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker ( )

NI and ROI Trade (HMRC and NI Manufacturing Exports Survey)

Exporting NI Services - RoI

Comparison of Research and Development (R&D) in Northern Ireland (NI) Vs Republic of Ireland (ROI) R&D in Northern Ireland Annual surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and Government Expenditure (GERD). The Northern Ireland R&D survey has been carried out annually since 2001 and previously was conducted triennially in 1993,1996 and Most recent figures related to 2006 R&D survey consists of all businesses thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest NI survey consists of 794 firms. R&D in Republic of Ireland Biennial surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and R&D in the public sector Most recent carried out for year 2005 but provisional estimates are available for 2006 R&D survey consists of all businesses thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest ROI survey consists of 3,750 firms

Sources Republic of Ireland: Forfás Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment

Research and Development Expenditure Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D Trend in R&D spend (BERD) as % of GDP, 2005 or latest available year as % of GVA Source:OECD Factbook 2007: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics Northern Ireland figure, Total Expenditure on R&D as % of GVA 2006 Source: ONS and DETI BERD – Business Expenditure on R&D

Community Innovation Survey The UK and Republic of Ireland innovation surveys were completed as part of the EU Community Innovation set of surveys and use the Eurostat core questionnaire used by the EU 27. Results were collected within the UK by the Department of Trade and Industry and in the Republic of Ireland by Forfás. Data on a variety of innovation activities was gathered obeying the strict international methodological guidelines as laid out in the OECD Oslo Manual, and core industrial sectors covered by the EU surveys were firms with 10 or more employees in the following SIC/NACE sectors: 10-14Mining and Quarrying; Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water 51 Wholesale Trade Transport, Storage and Communication Financial Services 72Software Consultancy and Supply 74.2 Engineering and Technical Consultancy 74.3 Technical Testing and Analysis Please note that the following additional sectors were covered in the UK survey, but have been excluded from NI and UK results in the following slides to allow for direct comparability: 45Construction 50Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 52Retail trade 55Hotels and restaurants 70Real estate 71Rental of machinery and equipment 73R&D Remainder of SIC 74 (i.e. excl and 74.3) – Other Business Activities

Innovation active rates (per cent of businesses) for respondents to the Community Innovation Survey, * Ireland results are provisional. Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch

Innovation active rates (%) by business size and Industry and Services sectors, Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch Business Size IndustryServices All businessesSIC C-E SIC I, J, 51, 72, 74.2, 74.3 Ireland NI United Kingdom

Conclusions NI economic and labour market statistics provision compares favourably against UK regions –No regional prices, limited domestic consumption statistics –Regional Accounts re-engineering Potential for greater NI-ROI comparability –Inherent difficulties in national vs devolved comparisons –Greater North-South dimension for existing series, metadata –Trade, productivity measures, business costs need development –Burden on business Allsopp Review EU standards SIC 2007 The user view