Building resilience to extreme weather in the south west Devon & Cornwall Energy & Environmental Management Group January 2014 Climate SouthWest

Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” “The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen and concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5 WGI September 2013

Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Outline Weather & climate: past, present, future Short exercise What is means for the south west What we can do How Climate SouthWest can help

Weather versus climate? Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Climate - the average weather in a locality over a period of 30 years or more Weather – what is happening outside right now Mitigation – reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) Adaptation – preparing for the unavoidable impacts of climate change Adaptation?

What we have seen so far Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate 2014: flooding and...? 2000: flooding 2001: flooding 2003: heat wave 2005: flooding 2006: drought heat wave 2008: flooding snow & ice 2007: flooding 2009: flooding snow & ice 2010: flooding snow & ice 2012: drought flooding 2013: heat wave flooding storm

What we are seeing now Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Prolonged unsettled weather Cold snap in North America Storms expected Location and strength of jet stream brings storms across Atlantic Active area of research

What can we expect by 2050s Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Overall increase in temperature 2.7°C Increased winter precipitation 17% Decreased summer precipitation 20% Rising sea levels 26-29cm More frequent & intense extreme weather

What does it really mean? Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Biotechnology Built environment Water resources & water quality Advanced engineering & aerospace Coastal areas Forestry Agriculture & horticulture Biodiversity, habitat, conservation & landscapes Sea fisheries River flooding & drainage Housing Health Heritage Transport Environmental technologies Financial services Food & drink Marine Tourism & leisure Our economy Our society Our natural environment

Ripple Exercise Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Flooding Access road flooded Staff can’t get to work No deliveries Can’t open Loss of profit

Impacts for business and utilities Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Challenges Business continuity Recovery costs from events Increased insurance costs Health and safety risks Disruption to supply chain / movement of goods and services Opportunities New market opportunities – goods and services Recreational and leisure opportunities Opportunities to enhance reputation Reduced energy demand in winter

Impacts for transport Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Challenges Increased pressure on transport system from increased visitors Increased disruption Increased damage to infrastructure Opportunities Increased scope for walking and cycling Less frost damage to infrastructure and less need for gritting Fewer ice/snow related accidents and infrastructure damage

Impacts for the built environment Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Challenges Development in floodplains More need for summer cooling Increased rain penetration Subsidence/landslips Rising demand for water but decreased supply Opportunities Less demand for winter heating More potential for solar energy Increased amount of trees Improved drainage infrastructure Changing design standards © White Design

Impacts for health Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Challenges Over exposure to UV – cataracts & skin cancer Increased heat related deaths Impacts of air pollution Food poisoning Infectious / tropical diseases Service delivery impacts Opportunities Increased physical recreation – reduction in obesity Milder winters – reduction in excess winter deaths Fewer cold related admissions

Impacts for tourism Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Challenges Visitor destinations at capacity Increased insurance costs Damage to buildings Staff and visitor health and safety Coastal locations threatened by sea level rise and increased erosion Opportunities Potentially longer season Job creation Diversification Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods New market opportunities © Bournemouth Tourism

Impacts for agriculture & forestry Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Challenges Increased risk of disease Heat stress to poultry and livestock Increased risk of drought Loss of productive land due to sea level rise Increased soil erosion and run-off Opportunities New crop varieties Reduced frost damage Longer growing seasons Improved land management and woodland creation

Impacts for biodiversity Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Challenges Risk to drought vulnerable species Increased visitor pressure on natural environment Invasive non-native flora and fauna Change in SW natural environment Opportunities Flora and fauna move to northern distributions Integrated land management and habitat creation © RSPB

What can we do? Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Identify and be aware of vulnerabilities Identify support available Know flood risk Check insurance cover Incorporate adaptation measures into management plans/risk assessments/business contingency plans Measure and review resilience during and after extreme weather events Ensure adaptive measures considered in all decision-making

Climate UK network Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate

Climate SouthWest partnership Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Agriculture & forestry Biodiversity Built environment Business & utilities Health Local authorities Tourism Transport

Tools to increase resilience Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate Business Resilience Health Check Interactive online tool Identifies vulnerabilities Produces bespoke prioritised action plan Pilot workshops Severe Weather Impacts Monitoring System (SWIMS) Local authorities and partner organisations Measures cost of severe weather events Identifies impacts on services, communities, reputation and the environment Valuable decision-support tool Making the business case!

Climate SouthWest Building resilience to extreme weather and a changing climate