Climate Change D McRae 14 October 09

Climate forum Our climate is always changing and is influenced by both natural variability and human induced changes

Natural Variability Includes The annual cycle El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation Volcanic eruptions Fluctuations in solar output Orbital Cycles Ocean and Polar Ice Variations

Human Influences Include Changing land use Changing urban climates Anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (increase in CO2, methane etc = increase in temperature) Aerosols and other pollutants

Greenhouse gases Did not arrive with the last federal election cycle Svante Arrhenius –1903 Nobel Laureate in Chemistry –Combined existing research on greenhouse effect (Fourier 1827) with work suggesting the burning of fossils fuels could alter the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Hogbom 1894) to be the first to calculate greenhouse warming associated with carbon dioxide (1896) and predict possibility of man made global warming

Observations of recent change

The future - rainfall Already highly variable No obvious climate change signal at present Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by one percent by 2030 The largest seasonal decrease (six percent) is projected for spring

The future - temperature Average annual temperature in the Gulf region has increased by 0.2 o C over last decade (from 26.6 o C to 26.8 o C) Projections indicate a further increase of 1.0 o C by 2030 (4.4 o C by 2070) The number of hot days (>35 o C) per year at Burketown is expected to increase from 102 to 138 per year by 2030 (222 per year by 2070)

The future - sea level rise A projected sea level rise by 0.8m by 2100 is currently being used by the Qld Government to inform policy e.g. Coastal Management Plan Qld Gov is currently developing DEM for entire Qld coastline Allow for better understanding of the impacts of sea level rise, storm surge, salt water intrusion on coastal communities

The future - cyclones Complex and area of on-going research Some mixed results However expected total number of cyclones to decrease but number of long lived and severe cyclones to increase

Adaptation strategies Should be focused on –Increasing long term profitability –Increasing long term sustainability (or best practice) –Increasing business and community resilience

Adaptation strategies Grazing industry –(Declining pasture quality & quantity due to increased CO2 concentration, evaporation, and decreased rainfall, difficulty supplying water to meet demand) –Changes in grazing systems from set grazing rates to more variable rotational/cell/spell grazing systems –Changes in production system –Change in species –Changes in breeding cycles –Changes in enterprise structure

Adaptation strategies Crop/horticultural industries –Variety and planting date changes –Species change –Changes in metabolism (photosynthesis, respiration, growth and tissue composition) in plants –Changes in crop management –More opportunity cropping –Increase risk of soil erosion due to higher rainfall intensity –Improvement in infrastructure

Adaptation strategies All communities –Changes in range of weeds, invasive species, pests and diseases –Management of pest and disease –Business size/structure/location –Increased public and political pressure on the use of resources –Increased frequency and intensity of fire –Water use efficiency, access to water and water management

Adaptation strategies Four key questions to finish with What can go wrong (or right)? How and why can it happen? What is the likelihood of it happening? What is the consequence of it happening? What can we do about it?

Further reading Baum et al., 2009, Climate Change, health impacts and urban adaptability: Case study of Gold Coast City, Griffith University, available free at Sustainable tourism CRC, 2009, The impacts of climate change on Australian tourism destinations – developing adaptation and response strategies, available free at Climate Q Qld Government 2008, What is the science telling us, available at The Rangeland Journal