Astral Foods Limited Market Update Presentation March 2012.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Q Earnings Call Presentation June 7, 2013.
Advertisements

© 2013 Sri U-Thong Limited. All rights reserved. This presentation has been prepared by Sri U-Thong Limited and its holding company (collectively, “Sri.
Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September , 2008 Monthly Rice Rice - protected.
Absa AgriBusiness Presenter name Subject Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no responsibility.
Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor University of Missouri-Columbia Chicken & Competing Meats.
Standard Register Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Conference Call February 22, 2008.
Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra,
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
Industry information session Cape Town Investec – 28 January 2011 Chris Schutte Daan Ferreira.
Soybean Complex Outlook: 2003/04 Dr. Matthew C. Roberts The Ohio State University Midwest, Great Plains, and Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, IN.
1. 2 יום עיון רפתות גליל מערבי OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN.
Copyright© JSE Limited “Grow” your understanding about trading commodity derivatives….. 1.
1 Food commodity prices: History & prospects Ron Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture ? USDA Outlook Forum February 20, 2014.
An Overview of the Maize Surplus Situation Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Prepared by Billy Morokolo Director: marketing.
Overview of the Global Oilseed Markets Annual Meeting National Cottonseed Products Association Santa Fe, New Mexico May 4, 2009 John Baize.
World Feed and Food Supply and Demand Governors’ Agriculture, Energy, and Sustainability Roundtable Governors’ Biofuels Coalition Washington, DC January.
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL Positioning for Growth Tasmanian Strata Industry Tim MacKenzie Associate Director Friday 9 th August.
Client Update September 2013 Andrew Tasker – GFM Representative WA.
Pat Westhoff FAPRI-MU director University of Missouri Farm Bill Decision Aid Training.
Kuwait Financial Centre ‘Markaz’ Sukuk Presentation - Update June 2009
Food Price Monitoring Report National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) Food Cost Review 2005.
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
Kurt M. Guidry Gilbert Durbin Professor LSU AgCenter Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness 2010 LSU AgCenter’s Outlook Conference Outlook.
Legal notice Certain statements included in this presentation contain forward-looking information concerning BG Group plc’s strategy, operations, financial.
1 Conference Call 1Q12.  Reduction of 1.8% in consumption compared to 1Q11, mainly influenced by the residential class, due to lower temperature in the.
AAAC Outlook Day Fertiliser Outlook Friday, 27 November 2009 Andrew Macrae – Manager Procurement CSBP Limited.
Industry information K Coetzee August Contents International economy International dairy situation SA economic situation SA dairy situation.
MIFIRA Framework Lecture 7 Regional availability and prospective source markets Chris Barrett and Erin Lentz February 2012.
Global Market Dynamics February 7, Commodity.
Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields Paul Westcott and Michael Jewison USDA-ERS and USDA-WAOB February 2013.
World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014.
GOSA 14 March SA GRAIN ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE PRESENTATION TOPICS 1.AGRICULTURE IN PERSPECTIVE 3.OUTLOOK FOR 2012 / TRENDS IN THE GRAIN INDUSTRY.
Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives US/China Grain Trade Trends and Challenges Rebecca Bratter, Director Trade Development Agricultural.
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President Turkey and Protein Sector Outlook Dr. Thomas.
Feed Outlook Jim Dunn Ag Economist Pennsylvania State University.
Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agriculture Chad Hart Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University.
1 “Buy local – create a local career” 1 Presentation to Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries By South African Poultry.
Grain Outlook For Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University 5/17/2004.
FOURTH QUARTER AND YEAR END 2012 RESULTS. The following is a Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This press.
SA Economic Indicators Report updated:April 2016 Next update:May 2016.
THIRD QUARTER 2012 RESULTS.  Year-over-year revenue growth of 5.5% to $32.0 million, at the high end range of guidance  Adjusted fully diluted EPS of.
M. MAKU UFH RESEARCH IN AGRICULTURAL INNOVATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT FOR IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY 2016 PRE CONFERENCE WORKSHOP UNIVERSITY OF FORT HARE, 26 FEBRUARY.
9 June 2016 Absa AgriBusiness Presented by Deon van Wyk Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank.
World Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oils and Fats
Jim Dunn Ag Economist Pennsylvania State University
Bottlenecks and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U. S
FXTechstrategy Currency Technicals
GLOBOIL INDIA 2016 Abdul Rasheed Janmohammed
FXTechstrategy Currency Technicals
BRIEFING BY ITAC TO THE PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES ON GRAINS & POULTRY IMPORT TARIFFS DATE: 16 September 2016 Siyabulela.
Crop Marketing & Outlook
Food Security Update 28 July 2016.
Industry information K Coetzee May 2017
Credit Risk Management Mark Schulz Lugano, 22 September 2016
World Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds and Oilmeals
Outlook for Feed Grain / Oilseed Markets
Livestock and Grains Situation and Outlook January 2018
Maintaining Profitability January 2008
Mark Bennett, Head of Agribusiness, ANZ
SA Economic Indicators:
Standard Register First Quarter 2007 Conference Call April 27, 2007.
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist
4th Quarter 2016 Earnings Call
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Commodity Market Outlook
Current Feed Situation and Outlook
© 2013 Sri U-Thong Limited. All rights reserved
Corn Situation and Outlook
Palm Oil Market Review and Outlook 2020
Presentation transcript:

Astral Foods Limited Market Update Presentation March 2012

Contact details 2 Tel: +27 (0) Fax:+27 (0) Astral Foods Corporate Office 92 Koranna Avenue, Doringkloof Centurion, 0157, Gauteng, South Africa Chris Schutte Chief Executive Officer Tel : +27 (0) Fax : +27 (0) Website: Daan Ferreira Group Financial Director Tel : +27 (0) Fax : +27 (0) Astral Foods Limited

Market Information 3

Raw materials – Yellow Maize 11Aug1112Sep1112Oct1109Nov1109Dec1112Jan1209Feb1209Mar12 Comments Corn acres harvested (mha) Corn yield (bu/a) Yield drop from in Jul11 to in Jan12 due to adverse weather and below average crop conditions Corn STU ratio 5.4%5.3%6.8%6.7% 6.3% Impact of lower production results in the lowest STU ratio since 1995/6 CBOT price (c/bu) The actual Corn price on CBOT is currently 636c, down from 786c in Jun11, a drop of 19% SAFEX YM price (r/t) SAFEX YM price rose from R1730 in Jul11 to R2735 in Jan12, a rise of 58% 4

Raw materials – Soybeans 11Aug1112Sep1112Oct1109Nov1109Dec1112Jan1209Feb1209Mar12 Comments Soybean acres (mha) Soybean yield (bu/a) Yield drop from 43.4 in Jul11 to 41.5 in Jan12 due to adverse weather resulting in below average crop conditions Soybean STU ratio 4.9%5.2%5.1%6.3%7.6%9.1% The estimated STU for the current season is 9.1% CBOT price (c/bu) The actual Soybean price on CBOT declined from 1417c in Sep11 to 1133c in Dec11, a fall of 20%. Since then it rose 18% to 1333c SAFEX price (r/t) SAFEX Soya price dropped from 3615 in Sep11 to 3220 in Dec11, a drop of 11%. Since then it rose 9% to

Safex Yellow Maize price from October 2004 Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 6

Safex Yellow Maize vs CBOT Corn in Rand terms Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers 7

Poultry imports + 29% February2012 (tons)2011 (tons)Var (tons)Var (%) Chicken MDM/Turkey Total YTDF2012 (tons)F2011 (tons)Var (tons)Var (%) Chicken MDM/Turkey Total

Total poultry imports - chicken, turkey and MDM Industry trends and statistics | Tons 9 Monthly (tons) OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep F F Var (%)35.1%47.2%15.2%35.0%51.6%

Poultry imports per month + 29%

Per capita consumption: South Africa Industry trends and statistics | 11

Industry broiler selling prices Industry trends and statistics | Source: SAPA 36 month average = R13.17 Rand per kg 12

Broiler price vs maize price vs feed price vs imports Rand per kg Rand & tons 13

Broiler price vs food price inflation Source: CJA Strategic Risk Brokers Rand per kg 14

Anti-dumping tariffs USA Bone-in portions / leg quarters General tariff and rate of duty on bone-in portions: 220 c/kg In addition, an anti-dumping duty on US producers: Tyson 224 c/kg, Gold Kist 245 c/kg & others 696 c/kg Brazil Boneless cuts General tariff and rate of duty on boneless cuts: 5% In addition provisional anti-dumping duty of 6.26% ad valorum on boneless cuts produced by Aurora Alimentos, and 46.59% ad valorum on boneless cuts produced by all other producers in Brazil Frozen whole chicken General tariff and rate of duty on frozen whole chickens / hens: 27% In addition provisional anti-dumping duty of 62.93% ad valorum on whole frozen chicken from Brazil 15

Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty % of Brazil imports affected - 5 months ending February (F2012) % boneless cuts 6.1 % % frozen whole 10.4 % % of Brazil 16.6 % [≈ 8.8% of Total imports] % imports by country

Influence on local importers? Minimal impact expected on local importers through the imposition of the Brazilian provisional anti-dumping duty The two categories on which the additional duty is applied are small Importers will likely source these products elsewhere The duty on the boneless cuts will impact mainly on the catering sector Leg quarters? South African Poultry Association investigations on-going There has been insufficient evidence to prove beyond doubt dumping of Brazilian leg quarters Next steps? Incumbent on industry to prove dumping and negative impact on local market Industry has to co-operate and work collectively (Competition Commission?) 17 Brazil provisional anti-dumping duty

Brazil benchmark – broiler efficiencies (2011) + 29% Industry trends and statistics | Source: Astral, USDA & Nutron Brazil 18

Astral broiler production performance (37.8 days) (34.7 days) 19

Specific allegations – Astral Foods Astral currently negotiating one settlement to close all open matters Poultry industry investigation The industry wide investigation into the animal feed and poultry industry initiated in 2009 is on-going Competition commission matters 20

Negative  High industry chicken stock levels  High imports (Brazilian leg quarters)  Maize price gap closing – old vs new season  Maize exports to Mexico to continue [vessels for Mexico exports booked to September 2012 / SA total exports of maize forecast at 2.5 million tons for marketing year)  Lower maize yields expected for new crop due to adverse weather (< 11 million tons) Positive  Anti-dumping tariff application and provisional anti-dumping duties on Brazil  Upward price potential and long term upward trend in chicken consumption  Return of good production efficiencies following industry wide challenges  Increasing local soya bean and meal production  Maize import opportunities from Zambia Outlook – short term 21

Q & A

The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at by Astral Foods from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to their accuracy, completeness or appropriateness. All opinions and estimates contained in this document are subject to change without notice. Astral Foods undertakes no obligation to update, or to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent in this document. Astral Foods does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, punitive or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. This document is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with the oral briefing provided by Astral Foods. The document contains forward-looking statements about the company’s operations and financial conditions. They are based on Astral Foods best estimates and information at the time of writing. They are nonetheless subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies many of which are beyond the control of the company. Unanticipated events will occur and actual future events may differ materially from current expectations due to new business opportunities, changes in priorities by the company as well as other factors. Any of these factors may materially affect the company’s future business activities and its ongoing financial results. DISCLAIMER 23