Remotely-sensed Enviroclimatic patterns and Ebola outbreaks: linkages and early warning Dan Slayback Jorge Pinzon Compton Tucker 8 September 2004 Biospheric.

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Presentation transcript:

Remotely-sensed Enviroclimatic patterns and Ebola outbreaks: linkages and early warning Dan Slayback Jorge Pinzon Compton Tucker 8 September 2004 Biospheric Science Branch, Code 923 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA

Outline Ebola outbreaks: facts and hypotheses Environmental links to remotely sensed data Spatial & temporal specificity of environmental trigger events Conclusions From: Trigger events: enviroclimatic coupling of Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks JE Pinzon, JM Wilson, CJ Tucker, R Arthur, PB Jahrling, and P Formenty, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. (in press)

Many Ebola outbreaks have occurred in African closed tropical forestMany Ebola outbreaks have occurred in African closed tropical forest Some Ebola outbreaks have occurred in African gallery tropical forest within a savanna matrixSome Ebola outbreaks have occurred in African gallery tropical forest within a savanna matrix

Outbreak Severity

Outbreak Locations

Transmission Scenarios

Possible Ebola Transmission(s) no usual suspects! It is unknown where the virus dwells…

NOAA 11 AVHRR NOAA 7 AVHRR NOAA 9 AVHRR NOAA 14 AVHRR SeaWiFS SPOT MODISes NOAA-16 AVHRR NPOESS NOAA9 Moderate-resolution (1-10’s kms) environmental satellites Environmental Links with Remotely Sensed Data: available datasets

NOAA AVHRR 8-km NDVI Data Set Radiation

VIS/NIR/SWIR Band Comparison AVHRR SeaWiFS SPOT-VGT MODIS

New, improved 8-km AVHRR NDVI data set 1981-present 2003

Major Dataset Differences Global NDVI anomalies

Are there unique environmental characteristics at outbreak sites, during the outbreak year?

Hypothesis: very extreme change from rainy to dry season

1994 Ebola Outbreak Locations NDVI Time Series

Mean time series and anomalies

Spatial signatures and risk

CCA is a method that maximizes the variance between two datasets. Here, we use CCA to identify areas and times that exhibit enviroclimatic signals typical of those at known outbreak sites and dates. CCA(A) = [U,S,V] A: paired-mode correlation matrix between yearly NDVI signals and corresponding NDVI signals from the outbreak sites at outbreak years. U: orthonormal vector of satellite NDVI signals S: percentage of covariance explained by canonical factors V: orthonormal vector of Ebola sites The analysis conducted only over areas with high enviroclimatic correlation to previous outbreak sites (r 2 > 0.95) Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)

Trigger event summary

the hot zone