Sanderson 2008. The dN/dS ratio on each branch of the primate phylogeny (nonscaled branches) for the S opsin gene (above the branch) and the M/L opsin.

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Presentation transcript:

Sanderson 2008

The dN/dS ratio on each branch of the primate phylogeny (nonscaled branches) for the S opsin gene (above the branch) and the M/L opsin gene (below the branch). Tan Y et al. PNAS 2005;102: ©2005 by National Academy of Sciences

University of Seville

If transmission occurs mostly among people living in close proximity…If transmission occurs mostly among people living in close proximity… Bo Patient 4 Kanema Patient 1 Bo Patient 1 Bo Patient 2 Bo Patient 3 The monophyly of these three viral isolates from Bo is consistent with the possibility that the virus was transmitted among people living in that district. This tree is consistent with the possibility that the outbreak in Kamena was initiated through transmission from a visitor from Bo.

If Ebola transmission occurs mostly when people travel, rather than among people in the same geographic area… Bo Patient 2 Bo Patient 1 Kanema Patient 1 Kanema Patient 2 Bo Patient 3 Kanema Patient 3 But other explanations are possible!

Gire et al The cumulative number of Ebola cases recorded as part of the current outbreak continues to increase exponentially

The realized mutation rate is inferred to be elevated in the current outbreak relative to previous outbreaks Gire et al. 2014

A phylogenetic tree relating the present outbreaks to earlier ones Gire et al. 2014

Viral load early in the course of infection appears to be a strong predictor of survival probability

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