AIM\ENDUSE Model with Application for India P.R. Shukla

AIM/ENDUSE Model Structure

Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Structure

Structure of the AIM/End-Use Model Energy Energy Technology Energy Service - Oil - Coal - Gas - Solar - (Electricity) - Boiler - Power generation - Blast furnace - Air conditioner - Automobile - Heating - Lighting - Steel products - Cooling - Transportation Energy Database Technology Database - Employees - Lifestyle - Energy type - Energy price - Energy constraints - CO2 emission factor - Technology price - Energy consumption - Service supplied - Share - Lifetime Socio-economic Scenario Technology Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions Service Demand - Industrial Structure - Economic Growth - Population Growth

AIM/ Emission Model Linkages Socio-Economic Scenarios GHGs Emissions Cropland Pasture Forest Biomass Farm Other Land Land Input GDP AIM/ Climate Model AIM/ Impact Model Bottom-up Model Feedback Land Equilibrium Model Other Inputs Goods & Service Demand Supply Endo Use Energy Efficiency Industrial Process Change Exploitation Technology Conversion End Use Energy-Economic Model Resource Base Population Resource Base Lifestyle Production Food Consumption Pattern Social Primary Final Energy Price Goods and Service Price AIM/Emission-Linkage Biomass

Iron and Steel, Cement, Petrochemical, Pulp and Paper, Miscellaneous Sectors and sub sectors Energy Conversion Sectors Sub sector City Gas Production, Oil Refining, Electric Power Generation Cooling and Heating, Hot Water Supply, Lighting, Buildings, Locomotion, etc. Passenger Transport, Freight Transport Industrial Residential Commercial Transportation

An example of sub-model structure (Japanese iron-steel industry) Purchased coke Iron ore Limestone Coal Purchased Terminal electricity Terminal ZSS Hot Coke oven Coke Terminal coke oven gas Coke Smelting quenching reduction Coke furnace equipment Heat Power device Sintering Terminal Sinter machine Utility Blast Terminal Hot furnace Blast furnace metal gas Heat Independent Basic power plant Molten oxygen Basic oxygen steel furnace furnace gas Power device Caster Electricity Slabs, blooms, billets Reheating Hot rolled Reheating furnace Legend steel products furnace : final service Annealing furnace : service device Terminal : external energy : internal Cold rolled Hot rolled energy/service steel products steel products Electric arc furnace flow of external energy flow of heat Scrap and related goods flow of electricity An example of sub-model structure (Japanese iron-steel industry) flow of other internal energy/service

AIM/ENDUSE Model Application for India

End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model Indian Economy End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM) Industry Transport Agriculture Residential Commercial Steel Urban Rural Cement Aluminum Sugar Chlor-Alkali Paper Brick Textiles Fertilizer Others

GDP

GVA Shares (Reference scenario)

Sectoral and Technological Detail in Indian AIM\ENDUSE Sector Subsector Technl Industry Steel 32 Aluminum 10 Cement 12 Brick 7 Paper 21 Caustic Soda 11 Soda Ash 14 Fertilizer 12 Sugar 18 Textiles 11 Others 4 Sector Subsector Technl Transport 25 Residential Urban 25 Rural 21 Commercial 9 Agriculture 14 Total 246

Reference Energy System for Transport

Transport Technology Options ROAD Vehicles PASSENGER GOODS 2-Wheeler Heavy Truck (Diesel) 3-Wheeler Light Truck (Diesel) Petrol Car Heavy Truck (CNG) Diesel Car Light Truck (CNG) CNG Car RAIL Vehicles Steam Loco Diesel Loco Electric Loco

Share of Transport in Service Sector 18 15 12 Percent 9 6 3 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994

Growth of Traffic in India Passenger (Billion PKms) Goods (Billion TKms) 2500 800 Road Rail Air Road Rail 2000 600 1500 400 1000 200 500 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995

Road Transport Demand: Projections Passenger Goods 12000 3500 3000 10000 2500 Billion PKms 8000 Billion TKms 2000 6000 1500 4000 1000 2000 500 Annual Growth Rate = 5.1% Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 % 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

Transport Demand Projections Air Transport Rail Goods Transport 3500 80 3000 70 60 2500 PKms TKms 50 2000 40 1500 Billion Billion 30 1000 20 Annual Growth Rate = 4.2 % 500 Annual Growth Rate =4.9% 10 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

Energy Consumption in Road and Rail Transport Road Transport Rail Transport 200 800 Coal HSD Electricity HSD Gasoline CNG 160 600 120 Calories Million Tonnes 400 80 Peta 200 40 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

Carbon Emissions from Transport Sector Annual Growth Rate = 4.5 %

Energy and Carbon Intensities in Transport Sector Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity 0.28 14 13 0.26 Mega Joule / Rs. (1990 prices) Ton Carbon / '000 Rs. 12 0.24 11 0.22 10 0.2 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Year Year

Energy Consumption by Transport Modes

Energy Consumption in Brick Kilns 500 400 Coal Biomass 300 Peta Joules 200 100 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Technology Mix in Brick Production 140 High Draught VSBK 120 Clamps (Biomass) 100 Bull trend Kiln 2 Bull trend Kiln 1 Billion Nos. 80 60 40 20 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year

Energy Intensity of Brick Kilns 5 4.5 Giga Joule / '000 bricks 4 3.5 3 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Carbon Intensity of Bricks 0.076 0.068 0.06 Ton Carbon /'000 bricks 0.052 0.044 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Sectoral Primary Energy Consumption 50000 Industry Residential 40000 Commercial Agriculture Transport Power 30000 Peta Joules 20000 10000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year

Sectoral Electricity Consumption 1600 Industry Residential Commercial Agriculture Transport 1200 TWh 800 400 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Carbon Emissions by Fuels

Energy intensity of GDP 1.2 1 0.8 Peta Joules\billion Rs. (1993 proces) 0.6 0.4 0.2 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Carbon Intensity of GDP 28 23 18 Ton Carbon\Million Rs. (1993 prices) 13 8 3 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)

NOX Emissions (Million Tons)

Carbon Emissions 2010 1995 2035