Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years for Australians in their 70’s by behavioural risk factors Annette Dobson, Deirdre McLaughlin, Nancy Pachana, Julie Byles, Janni Leung, Kieran McCaul, Leon Flicker, Osvaldo Almeida, Derrick Lopez, Graeme Hankey. NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well, Ageing Productively Grant

Background Demographic changes, increasing age and longer life expectancy mean that more people will live into their 70s and 80s.

Aims of this study  Provide valid estimates of the combined effects of major behavioural factors on risk of death within 10 years for men and women already in their 70s  Present the results using simple charts to communicate the importance of combinations of risk factors

Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health  cohort  Health, well-being and health service use  Surveyed every 3 years: 1996 – to at least 2015  National – over 40,000 participants  Funded by Australian Department of Health & Ageing

Health in Men Study  Aged  Screened in for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm  Followed up in for HIMS study  Perth area only  Physical examination, biomarkers, questionnaire  Funded by NHMRC project grants

Methods N: 7438 women, 6053 men Age: 71 to 79 years Outcome: deaths from all causes Follow-up: 10 year

WomenMen Age (years) ref (1.20, 1.79)1.65 (1.46, 1.87) (1.64, 2.51)2.47 (2.16, 2.84) Smoking status Never smoked1 ref1 Ex-smoker1.45 (1.29, 1.63)1.54 (1.35, 1.75) Current smoker2.33 (1.85, 2.93)2.68(.19, 3.29) BMI (kg/m 2 ) Normal(18.5 to <25)1 ref1 Overweight (25 to <30)0.82 (0.72, 0.92)0.87 (0.77, 0.99) Obese (≥30)1.03 (0.88, 1.21)0.98 (0.83, 1.15) Alcohol consumption Weekly or more1 ref1 Less than weekly1.27 (1.12, 1.44)1.23 (1.10, 1.38) Physical activity (MET.minutes/week) None/low (<600)1 ref1 Moderate/high (≥600)0.66 (0.58, 0.74)0.68 (0.61, 0.76) Constant (not exp) -1.76(-1.98, -1.53)-1.07(-1.24, -0.90) Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each sex separately; logistic regression for death within 10 years

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models. Age: years WomenMen Alcohol consumption ≥weekly<weekly≥weekly<weekly Physical activity (MET.mins/week) PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600 SmokingBMI Never smokerNormal Overweight Obese Ex-smokerNormal Overweight Obese Current smokerNormal Overweight Obese <20%20-39%40-59%≥60%

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models. Age: years WomenMen Alcohol consumption ≥weekly<weekly≥weekly<weekly Physical activity (MET.mins/week) PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600 SmokingBMI Never smokerNormal Overweight Obese Ex-smokerNormal Overweight Obese Current smokerNormal Overweight Obese <20%20-39%40-59%≥60%

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models. Age: years WomenMen Alcohol consumption ≥weekly<weekly≥weekly<weekly Physical activity (MET.mins/week) PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600PA≥600PA<600 SmokingBMI Never smokerNormal Overweight Obese Ex-smokerNormal Overweight Obese Current smokerNormal Overweight Obese <20%20-39%40-59%≥60%

Conclusions Overall the risks of death were high, almost all exceeding 10% for women and 20% for men Risks were substantially higher for men than women For both sexes risk was highest those who: were in the oldest age group smoked did not drink alcohol weekly or more reported little physical activity

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