SimSmoke: The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in 16 European Nations David Levy Pacific Institute.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Curbing the Epidemic: Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control Why is tobacco control a public health priority around the World? Dr. Joy de Beyer.
Advertisements

Tobacco-Free Ireland 2025: What kinds of investments are needed? Professor Luke Clancy WCTOH 2015.
Session 3: Assessing cost- effectiveness of population level interventions ARCH Technical Workshop Bali August 2014 Matt Glover Health Economics Research.
Curbing the Epidemic: Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control: Global, Regional and Hungarian Evidence By Annette Dixon Sector Director World.
Global Burden of Tobacco
Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey: Data for Monitoring Progress in State and National Tobacco Control on the Micro & Macro Levels.
The epidemiology of smoking in Ukraine: a cross sectional survey undertaken in 2000 Dr Anna Gilmore European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition.
CGHR.ORG Twitter: CGHR_org 21 st century hazards of smoking and benefits of cessation in the United States Jha P, Ramasundarahettige C, Landsman V, Thun.
SimSmoke Model for Pricing Policies and Control of Tobacco in Europe David Levy, Ph.D. Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, University of Baltimore.
Program Evaluation in Public Health California’s Efforts to Reduce Tobacco Use David Hopkins Terry Pechacek.
Prevention strategies
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE CALIFORNIA TOBACCO SURVEYS Elizabeth A. Gilpin, MS Principal Investigator 1999 California Tobacco Surveys Cancer Prevention and Control.
John R. Seffrin, PhD National Chief Executive Officer American Cancer Society A Ticking Time Bomb: The Global Tobacco Pandemic Current and Future Scenarios.
Prevalence and factors associated with current tobacco use among youth in Uganda: Results from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2011 Kadobera Daniel Tobacco.
 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Tax and Health Promotion Bungon Ritthiphakdee Southeast Asia Tobacco Control Alliance (SEATCA) Action.
Nathalie Moreau Anne Hublet Alcohol use in year olds in Belgium. Results from the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children.
Transatlantic Trends 2014 Key Findings 2www.transatlantictrends.org.
Economics of Global Tobacco Control Kenneth E. Warner University of Michigan School of Public Health Presented to the Interagency Committee on Smoking.
Tobacco Control in Europe: What Works Thomas E. Novotny, MD MPH.
Evidence-based/Best Practices Tobacco Control Hadii Mamudu, PhD, MPA COPH-China Institute November 17, 2011.
Edward Anselm, MD Medical Director Public Health Perspectives of Accountable Care: Opportunities for Alignment.
1 Taxation of tobacco products in the European Union Frank Van Driessche DG Taxation and Customs Union May 2006.
 2012 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Annette David, MD, MPH, FACOEM Senior Partner for Health Consulting Services at Health Partners,
Presentation One: Areas of development and potential problems for ASH Deborah Arnott Director.
Economics of Tobacco Use and Help-Seeking Behavior Bishwa Adhikari, Ph.D., Economist Office on Smoking and Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
1.2 billion smokers globally 83% of global smokers (956 million) live in developing countries Prevalence rate (in 90s) MaleFemale Bangladesh4010 Turkey5926.
Le rôle de la réduction de dommages dans la lutte antitabac The role of harm reduction in tobacco control Lars M. Ramström Institute for Tobacco Studies.
Transatlantic Trends 2014 Key Findings 2www.transatlantictrends.org.
The impact of the EU accession on Croatia Public health policies on tobacco Marta Čivljak, MD, PHD Research Fellow Department of Medical Sociology and.
Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) Funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Tobacco: Health and Economics Dr. Joy de Beyer World Bank International Meeting on Economic, Social and Health Issues in Tobacco Control Kobe, Japan, December.
1 Predictors of Smoking among Ugandan adolescent between 2007 and 2011 Ebusu P and Ayo-Yusuf OA. School of Health Systems and Public Health Faculty of.
05-1 Epidemiology of smoking in HCW Smoking epidemiology in smoke- free hospitals Numerous data exists showing that in most European countries, health-care.
 2011 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Special Populations: Update Stephen A. Tamplin, MSE Department of Health, Behavior and Society Institute.
TOBACCO CONTROL IN URUGUAY 2006 ITC MEETING JULY 10th 2006 Washington; D.C.
MediSave TM : New Software to Calculate the Return on Investment of Tobacco Control Programs Steven S. Foldes, Ph.D. and Anju Joglekar, Ph.D. Blue Cross.
 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Section B Tracking Tobacco-Related Death and Disease.
The Importance of Research in Tobacco Control Jeffrey Koplan, MD, MPH Emory Global Health Institute- China Tobacco Control Partnership.
PACIFIC ISLANDS OVERVIEW Dr Vili Nosa Ms Stephanie Erick OCEANIA TOBACCO CONTROL PRE-CONFERENCE 2011 BRISBANE CONVENTION CENTRE, AUSTRALIA MONDAY 17TH.
Modeling the Effects of Policies and Interventions on Adult Smoking Prevalence David Levy, Ph.D. Dave Abrams, Ph.D. & Patty Mabry, Ph.D. May 3, 2006.
Prevalence of Tobacco Use. Current user: A person who has smoked once in the last 30 days Prevalence of tobacco use: The proportion of current users in.
Health Examination Surveys in Europe Hanna Tolonen National Public Health Institute, Finland.
 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Section B ASSIST Evaluation.
Effective Interventions to Reduce Tobacco Use Joy de Beyer Tobacco Control Coordinator World Bank Meeting of Mediterranean Countries, Malta, September.
The e-cigarette: opportunity or threat? SSA Annual Symposium 2015 Deborah Arnott Chief Executive Action on Smoking and Health.
Policies for helping smokers who cannot quit: a prerequisite for maximum prevention of tobacco induced diseases Lars M. Ramström Institute for Tobacco.
Prevalence and predictors of smoking in “smoke-free” bars. Findings from the ITC Europe Surveys. Gera E. Nagelhout, Ute Mons, Shane Allwright, Romain Guignard,
Comprehensive Tobacco Action Group Summary December 16, 2005.
European Survey FENCA Number of respondents Austria 0 Belgium 0 Czech Republic 4 France 11 Germany 103 Greece 0 Italy 30 Netherlands 0 Norway.
Excise taxes as a mechanism for tobacco control : South Africa’s experience Corné van Walbeek Chief researcher of the Economics of Tobacco Control Project,
Trends in electronic cigarette use in England Robert West Emma Beard Jamie Brown University College London
1 Maintaining downward pressure on smoking prevalence Robert West University College London All Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking September 2015.
1 University College London February 2014 Robert West Population impact of tobacco dependence treatment.
The Role of Epidemiological Surveillance in Tobacco Control Yang Gonghuan China CDC/PUMC.
Tobacco control in the Russian Federation Nataliya Toropova WHO Moscow, 2011.
Eliminate Quitline Iowa About 87,800 fewer tobacco users who would successfully quit At least $1.2 BILLION in excess future healthcare costs – At least.
Morocco: Opportunities to Integrate Tobacco Questions for Survey Dr Elkhansa Mahdaoui,MD,MPH Non Communicable Diseases Department Moroccan Ministry of.
EXPOSURE TO TOBACCO SMOKE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2nd Working Meeting on Adult Premature Mortality in the European Union October 2006, Warsaw, Poland.
Liver cirrhosis mortality in European countries II Working Meeting on Adult Premature Mortality in European Union Warsaw, October 2006.
1 Effects on smoking cessation of a national strategy to maximise NRT usage: the UK experience Robert West University College London WCTOH July 2006 Washington.
Public health policies and approaches for reducing prevalence of tobacco use E Tursan d’Espaignet Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control.
Washington’s Tobacco and Vapor Product Prevention and Control Program House Health Care & Wellness Committee January 20, 2017 Frances Limtiaco, Program.
Tobacco Control: developing and implementing a national program
The smoking epidemic and lung cancer in the EU
Achieving WHO Recommendations for HCV in the European Union
Public health policies and approaches for reducing prevalence of tobacco use E Tursan d’Espaignet Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control.
The Future for Surrogacy Globally
David Levy, Ph.D. Dave Abrams, Ph.D. & Patty Mabry, Ph.D. May 3, 2006
Global Burden of Tobacco
Cédric Van Styvendael Housing Europe President
Presentation transcript:

SimSmoke: The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in 16 European Nations David Levy Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, United States,

Modeling in Public Health Simulation models/computational models = used in other fields, now common in public health, esp in the fields of tobacco control and obesity Useful where there are dynamic systems with many stages (e.g., policy -> environment -> behaviors -> health outcomes) and where the effects unfold over time. Generally combine information from different sources using best available data The predictions are usually validated with survey data over past time period

Objective Using adapted versions of the dynamic SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model, this study develops models for 15 countries to examine –the effect of past policies and –the effect on smoking prevalence and related mortality of raising excise taxes to 70% and implementing tobacco control policies that would be fully consistent with the FCTC

Methods SimSmoke is an excel-based model that simulates the dynamics of cigarette use and tobacco-attributable deaths and the effects of policies on these outcomes. Basic structure of the model: –Population model begins with initial year population and moves through time with births and deaths (Markov model) –Tobacco use model distinguishes population as never tobacco users, current tobacco users and former tobacco users and moves through time with initiation, cessation and relapse (Markov model) –Tobacco-attributable deaths depend on tobacco use rates and relative risks –Policy modules consider each of the FCTC policies with independent effects on tobacco use rates

Population Never Smoker Ever Smoker* Current Smoker** Ex-SmokerInitiation Not quit Relapse Cessation (quit) Not initiate * Usually as smoked 100 cigarettes lifetime ** usually as smoked some or all days Smoking Model: Evolution of Tobacco Users

Smoking-Attributable Deaths Smoking attributable deaths = (Smoker death rate – never smoker death rate) * # Smokers +   years quit (Ex-smoker death rate – never smoker death rate) * # Ex-smokers Total Deaths Deaths Attributable to Smoking Death rates by smoking status Relative risks % smokers and ex- smokers

7 SimSmoke shows The effects of individual policies –Taxes –Smoke-free air laws –Tobacco control/Media campaigns –Health warnings –Advertising and marketing bans –Cessation treatment policies –Youth access policies Synergistic effects of combined policies

Types of Models Tracking Model: starts from initial year with data available, and continues to most recent year = 2010 – Can be used to: Calibrate (adjust parameters) in the model Validate (test) the model (on part not calibrated) Examine the role of past policies Future Projection Model: examine the effect of policies from current year forward, starts from 2011

Nation Models: Initial Year and 2010 Prevalence COUNTRY AL- BANIA CZECH REP FIN- LANDFRANCE GER- MANY GREAT BRITAIN IRE- LANDITALY NETHER- LANDS PO- LANDRUSSIASPAINSWEDENTURKEYUKRAINE Initial Year MALE Initial Year Prev 64.4%37.1%30.6%33.9%36.9%29.4%33.4%31.8%39.1%37.8%61.3%39.2%25.1%50.0%65.9% 2010 Prev 63.3%34.6%25.2%27.1%31.3%22.8%26.1%26.8%29.6%37.8%61.1%31.7%22.3%43.4%49.6% FEMALE Initial Year Prev 18.9%23.4%20.6%26.7%0.0%26.3%31.0%16.7%30.0%24.8%14.5%24.4%26.3%17.8%19.9% 2010 Prev 18.4%23.1%18.6%22.9%0.0%20.5%25.1%15.0%24.9%24.1%16.6%21.7%23.6%16.1%

Ireland SimSmoke: Example Model begins in 1998 with population and smoking data Smoking prevalence from Survey of Lifestyles Attitudes and Nutrition (SLÁN), a nationally representative, stratified random sample. –SLÁN conducted in 1998, 2002 and 2007 –We use 2002 to calibrate the model and 2007 to validate –In 2007, sampling change to include many more immigrants (with higher smoking rates) Also used OTC smoking prevalence annual data (2002 to present) to validate

Ireland Tobacco Control Policies Some large recent tax/price increases. Tax now 63% of price,Some large recent tax/price increases. Tax now 63% of price, Smoke-free air laws since 2004,Smoke-free air laws since 2004, Increased advertising and marketing restrictions,Increased advertising and marketing restrictions, Stronger health warnings since 2002, andStronger health warnings since 2002, and Some increase in tobacco control spending and cessation treatment policies since 1998, but both are still not at high levels.Some increase in tobacco control spending and cessation treatment policies since 1998, but both are still not at high levels.

Ireland Male Smoking Prevalence, 18 years and above,

Counterfactual: What would have happened in the absence of policies? Without the policies implemented since 1998, the model projected a very slow downward trend for male and female smoking prevalence. With policies implemented, male and female smoking prevalence were each 22% (i.e., reduced by more than a fifth) below the levels that they would have been in As a result, the model projected that a total of 1,716 lives were saved by 2010, increasing to 50,215 lives by Since actual reductions were slightly more than we predicted, these estimates may be understated. The model was then used to show the effect of past policies

United Kingdom SimSmoke: Predicted vs Survey,

Comparison of 14 Nations: Effect of Past Policies Of EU nations, UK has implemented the strongest overall policies, and has reduced smoking prevalence substantially since 1999 (outperformed model, due to comprehensive cessation tx policy?) Ireland implemented most policies, and has also seen relatively large reductions in prevalence after controlling for immigration Turkey has been very active in recent years, and has seen large reductions in smoking prevalence Netherland, Finland, Poland and Sweden have implemented many of the FCTC policies and show moderate reductions in prevalence

Past Policies (continued) Italy and Spain implemented many policies, but effects on prevalence slightly less than predicted by model France implemented many policies and did worse than the model predictions (why?) Germany has few policies implemented, but model predicts well over long time period Czech Republic, Russia and Ukraine with weak policies and mostly stagnant prevalence, the models predict well

Impact of Future Policies Once the model is validated, it is used to predict the effect of future policies relative to the status quo (policies maintained at 2010 levels) The policies are implemented in 2011 and main- tained. The effect of future policies depend on the change from the level of policies in –Tax goal = excise taxes raised to 70% of price with value added taxes added on. –Other future policies are in terms of FCTC-consistent policies as embodied in MPOWER specifications plus well enforced youth access policy

Effect on Male Prevalence of Raising Excise Taxes to 70% CountryExcise % of retail price in 2010 Smoking prevalence (2010) Czech Republic 64.0%34.6%-5.8%-6.6%-8.3%-9.9% Finland 60.0%25.2%-10.6%-12.4%-15.7%-18.5% France 63.6%27.1%-6.5%-7.5%-9.3%-10.6% Germany 60.0%31.3%-6.6%-7.5%-9.0%-10.4% Ireland 63.0%26.1%-7.6%-8.6%-10.8%-12.9% Italy 58.5%26.8%-8.0%-9.0%-10.9%-12.6% Netherlands 57.0%29.6%-9.2%-10.3%-12.5%-14.5% Poland 68.0%37.8%-2.2%-2.6%-3.4%-4.1% Russia 21.5%61.1%-19.9%-22.7%-28.2%-32.5% Spain 64.0%31.7%-5.2%-6.1%-8.4%-10.3% Sweden 52.0%22.3%-14.0%-15.8%-19.3%-22.6% Turkey 63.6%43.4%-6.2%-6.9%-8.2%-9.3% Ukraine 43.3%49.6%-19.0%-20.3%-23.0%-25.7% United Kingdom 63.0%22.8%-6.5%-7.5%-9.4%-11.1%

Effect on Smoking-Attributable Deaths of Raising Excise Taxes to 70% CountryExcise as % of retail price in 2010 SADs in 2010 Absolute change in SADs (deaths averted) due to a tax increase Czech Republic 64.0% 22, ,042 19,008 Finland 60.0% 8, ,702 France 63.6% 85,485 1,277 3,470 4,511 73,568 Germany 60.0% 143,083 3,122 7,596 8, ,468 Ireland 63.0% 6, ,474 Italy 58.5% 91,050 2,138 5,022 5, ,204 Netherlands 57.0% 32, ,960 2,149 40,839 Poland 68.0% 68, ,302 1,572 27,094 Russia 21.5% 485,932 31,111 75,654 96,273 1,619,165 Spain 64.0% 59, ,241 2,881 46,737 Sweden 52.0% 15, ,281 1,372 26,780 Turkey 63.6% 84,891 1,900 5,878 8, ,915 Ukraine 43.3% 144,247 7,804 17,193 18, ,542 United Kingdom 63.0% 94,312 1,234 2,957 3,493 62,753

Effects of Increasing Excise Taxes to 70% The largest reductions in prevalence are in Russia and Albania (where taxes are both less than 35% of the price). For Russia, a 20% reduction is expected in smoking prevalence within 5 years increasing to 37% by Between 2011 and 2040,1.6 million deaths are averted with the increase in taxes. Other countries with the potential to avert many deaths through a price increase are the Ukraine (362.5 thousand), Turkey (125 thousand), and Italy (105 thousand), all with tax rates less than 60%. Smaller reductions in prevalence are seen for Poland, the Czech Republic, France, Spain because they have excise taxes of 63.5% or above.

Example: Ireland SimSmoke Male Prevalence with Individual FCTC Policies Policies/Year Status Quo Policies 26.1%25.9%24.1%21.8%20.0% Independent Policy Effects Tax 70% of Retail Price26.1%25.1%23.1%20.6%18.7% Complete Smoke Free & Enforcement26.1%25.9%24.1%21.7%20.0% Comprehensive Ad Ban & Enforcement26.1%25.8%24.0%21.6%19.9% High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign26.1%24.3%22.4%20.0%18.2% Strong Health Warnings26.1%25.6%23.8%21.4%19.7% Strong Youth Access Enforcement26.0%25.8%23.5%20.8%18.8% Cessation Treatment Policies26.1%25.4%23.1%20.6%18.8% Combined Policy Effects All above, including Youth Access26.0%22.4%19.3%16.4%14.4% % Change in Smoking Prevalence from Status Quo Independent Policy Effects Tax 70% of Retail Price-3.3%-4.3%-5.5%-6.6% Complete Smoke Free & Enforcement-0.2%-0.3% Comprehensive Ad Ban & Enforcement-0.5%-0.6%-0.7% High Intensity Tobacco Control Campaign-6.3%-7.3%-8.2%-8.9% Strong Health Warnings-1.2%-1.5%-1.6% Strong Youth Access Enforcement-0.4%-2.5%-4.2%-6.0% Cessation Treatment Policies-2.2%-4.3%-5.5%-5.9% Combined Policy Effects All above, including Youth Access-13.5%-19.9%-24.6%-28.1%

Potential Future Effect of Implementing all FCTC Policies, Males for 15 EU Nations Status quow/ Full FCTC PoliciesDeaths averted POLICY/YEARS % change ALBANIA63.3%57.9%26.3%-54.5% 57,951 CZECH REPUBLIC34.6%27.5%16.4%-40.1% 113,023 FINLAND25.2%19.5%12.8%-34.6% 23,045 FRANCE27.1%21.5%14.7%-31.6% 258,879 GERMANY31.3%25.5%15.7%-38.2% 744,400 IRELAND26.1%20.0%14.4%-28.1% 28,064 ITALY26.8%20.3%13.4%-34.0% 329,570 NETHERLANDS29.6%23.1%14.0%-39.5% 144,769 POLAND63.3%57.9%26.3%-54.5% 467,312 RUSSIA61.1%59.1%26.3%-55.6% 3,550,230 SPAIN31.7%22.5%14.6%-34.9% 257,336 SWEDEN22.3%16.6%10.6%-36.3% 53,486 TURKEY43.4%37.5%24.7%-34.1% 643,762 UKRAINE49.6%35.9%15.3%-57.4% 889,384 GREAT BRITAIN22.8%18.6%13.6%-26.7% 163,986

Implementing all FCTC Policies Including Taxes to 70% of Price If all policies are simultaneously implemented in Russia, SimSmoke predicts an initial reduction in smoking prevalence of 38%, compared to 20% if only tax policy is implemented. The reduction increases to 56% by A total of 3.6 million deaths due to smoking are averted. Other countries with relatively weak policies, such as Ukraine, Poland, Germany and the Czech Republic can also expect reductions of 38% or above with the complete set of FCTC-consistent policies. Even some of the countries with relatively strong policies, such as Ireland and the UK, are predicted to see reductions in smoking prevalence of above 25%.

Conclusions Some European countries, particularly the UK, have made substantial progress in implementing tobacco control policies, and many have seen substantial benefits in terms of reduced smoking prevalence and fewer premature deaths due to smoking. Most countries still have a ways until meeting MPOWER recommended targets. Those with low tax rates and weak policies can substantially reduce smoking rates and avert large numbers of deaths. Some can still reduce smoking rates by more than 50%, especially those Eastern Bloc countries with high male rates and increasing female rates.