FrontPage: When do we think a poll is reliable? Welcome to AP Gov; sit anywhere you want for today. The Last Word: Assignment 6 for tomorrow "They said today that the government shutdown will not interfere with NASA's next mission to Mars. Isn't that ironic? We can go to Mars but we can't go to the Statue of Liberty." –Jay Leno "We just hit 190 hours of the government shutdown. If this were a 'Lord of the Rings' movie, we'd be almost halfway through." –Craig Ferguson "California Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill that allows illegals in California to practice law. You thought a lot of Americans wanted to close the border before? Wait until lawyers start sneaking across." –Jay Leno "Syrian dictator Assad says he may run for re-election next year. In fact, today he went over the results of next year's election and he said it looks pretty good." –Jay Leno "Joe Biden had to cancel his appearance at a Democratic fundraiser tonight because of the government shutdown. And it got awkward when they announced that Biden wasn't coming and raised twice as much money." –Jimmy Fallon Stephen Colbert explains the GOP strategy: "The rules are I go first, and I refuse to take my turn. And you can't take yours until I'm done. I know you're upset, but we're both at fault here, so let's negotiate. I agree to take my turn if you agree that I win."

Unit 2: AP Government and Politics Public opinion in this country is everything. -- Abraham LincolnAbraham Lincoln

One should respect public opinion insofar as is necessary to avoid starvation and keep out of prison, but anything that goes beyond this is voluntary submission to an unnecessary tyranny. Public opinion is no more than this: what people think that other people think. A statesman, we are told, should follow public opinion. Doubtless, just as a coachman follows his horses; having firm hold on the reins and guiding them. Public opinion sets bounds to every government, and is the real sovereign in every free one. Quotes on Public Opinion

Designing the Survey and Sample  Determining the content and phrasing of the questions Wording is crucial “Push polls” – robo calls are a good example; derogatory information is presented in hopes of changing minds  Selecting the sample Population – entire group of people whose opinions we are trying to measure Random sampling – ensures that each person in the universe has an equal chance of being chosen When subpopulations within an overall population vary, it is advantageous to sample each subpopulation (stratum) independently. Stratification is the process of dividing members of the population into homogeneous subgroups before sampling. 10.2

Analyzing the Data  Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns  Data analyzed by computers Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed  Reporting the data News organizations or campaigns 10.2

Consider: Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes. - Oscar Wilde The Last Word: Assignment 7 for tomorrow

Shortcomings of Polling  Survey Error  Margin of error - Natural errors in statistical measurement  Sampling error - Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample 10.3  Limited Response Options  Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove) May not give respondents sufficient room to answer  “Feeling thermometer” - Respondents rate feelings 0-100

Shortcomings of Polling  Lack of Information and difficulty measuring intensity  Filter questions Gauge how much respondents know about or have thought about an issue  Responses to personal questions/moral value questions  Feelings stronger about some issues  Lack of Interest in Political Issues  Many people lack an opinion on certain policies Policies that don’t affect people directly Policies that don’t involve moral values  Foreign policy Less likely to generate interest  Domestic policy More likely to generate interest 10.3