Maryland’s Changing Demographics Leadership Challenge XV June 13, 2006 Presented by Mark Goldstein Maryland Department of Planning

Demographic Topics Statewide look at pop change by race & Hispanic Origin Foreign born population Pop change by race & Hispanic origin by jurisdiction Age data

Data Sources Decennial Census Data, 1990 & 2000 Post 2000 Census Population Estimates, 2000 – 2004

Data Definition Minority is everyone who is NOT non-Hispanic White Includes African Americans, Asians & Pacific Islanders, American Indians, Multi-Race and Hispanics Hispanics are an ETHNIC and not a RACIAL minority. Hispanics can be of any race, but in Maryland most (over 90%) are white

Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland, Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 1990 MARS and 2000 Modified Race data 36% 64%

Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland, Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 1990 MARS and 2000 Modified Race data

Growth in Non-Hispanic White & Minority Population in Maryland, Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data, 2000 Modified Race data & population estimates, 2004

Net Domestic Migration For Maryland, Prepared by the Maryland Dept of Planning, Planning Data Services from Census 2000 Migration DVD

Population Change for Maryland by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Share of 1990 – 2000 Pop Change for Maryland

Population Change for Maryland by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Share of 2000 – 2004 Pop Change for Maryland

Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2000 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 2000 MARs

Maryland Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Foreign Born Population Totals Over the Decades Distribution Impact on Population Growth Origin of the Foreign Born Ability to Speak English

Foreign-Born Entering Maryland by Decade Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Foreign-Born Entering Maryland by Decade* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 213,500 * For 2000s, estimates for and extrapolation to 2010

Total Foreign Born in Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from Decennial Census data and 2004 ACS

Foreign Born as a Pct of Total Population in Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Decennial Census and ACS

Where Foreign-Born Settled During the 1990s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Where Foreign-Born Settled During the 1980s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

“Rest” of the 1980s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

“Rest” of the 1990s Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Total Foreign Born in Maryland by Jurisdiction – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Foreign Born as a Percent of Total Population – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Components of Population Change, 1990 – 2000, Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Components of Population Change, 1990 – 2000, Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Components of Population Change for Montgomery County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Components of Population Change for Prince George’s County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Components of Population Change for Baltimore County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Components of Population Change for Howard County, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Components of Migration for Baltimore City, 1990 – 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Origin of the Foreign Born in Maryland ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 34.8%33.0% 16.2% 14.0%

Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Maryland (cont.) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Origin of the Foreign Born in Montgomery ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 35.6% 34.8% 14.8% 13.1%

Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Montgomery County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Origin of the Foreign Born in Prince George’s ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 48.0% 25.2%21.4%

Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Prince George’s County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Origin of the Foreign Born in Baltimore County ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 38.8% 29.1%16.8% 13.4%

Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Baltimore County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Origin of the Foreign Born in Howard County ( Entered 1990 – 2000 ) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 52.2% 18.2% 16.5%

Country of Origin for the Foreign Born in Howard County Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Number in Maryland Who Speak English “Not Well or Not at All” Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Maryland Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 111,256 total 53.3% 24.3% 19.4%

Maryland Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Montgomery Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 52.8% 28.3% 16.2%

Montgomery Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Prince George’s Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 73.3% 14.0% 8.8%

Baltimore Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data 40.4% 28.6% 27.0%

Baltimore Co. Residents Who Speak English, “Not Well” or “Not at All” by Language Spoken at Home Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census data

Population Change by Race and Hispanic Origin for Jurisdictions Total Change –1990 – 2000 – Share of Total Pop –1990 –2004

Percent Minority Population

Percent Minority Population

Percent Minority Population

Pct Point Change in Minority Population Share,

Population Change for Montgomery Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only

Population Change for Montgomery Co. by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics.

Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Population Change for Prince George’s Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Influence of migration from Wash, D.C.

Population Change for Prince George’s Co. by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Continued loss of white pop; relatively stronger growth in Hispanics – nearly equal to previous 10-yr. growth

Prince George’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Prince George’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Population Change for Charles County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Nearly 90 % of gain is minority growth

Population Change for Charles County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Growth is entirely minority. In four years nearly equal to previous 10 for AA

Charles County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs Over ¾ white; less than 1/5 AA

Charles County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates White share less than 60%; AA share approaching 1/3

Population Change for Baltimore County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only AA - Influence of migration from Baltimore City

Population Change for Baltimore County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Nearly same pattern; but Hispanic growth nearly equal to previous 10 years

Baltimore County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Baltimore County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Whites < 70%; AA approaching 1/4 ; Asians & Hispanics < 5 %

Population Change for Harford Co. by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only White growth 5.6/1 to AA growth

Pop Change for Harford County by Race Hispanic & Origin, 2000–2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. White growth now 1.9 to 1 to AA growth. Hispanic growth =previous 10-year gain

Harford County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Harford County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Change in shares about equal to previous 10 years for whites, a bit more for AA

Population Change for Frederick County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Overwhelmingly white. Ratio of white to AA = 7.6 to 1

Population Change for Frederick County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. White share much smaller than previous 10 years (78% vs. 55%). AA change almost as much; Hispanic > previous 10 years

Frederick County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Frederick County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates White share drops almost as much as in previous 10 years (3.5 vs. 4.1)

Population Change for Carroll County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only Overwhelmingly white gain (94%)

Population Change for Carroll County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. Still mostly white, but less so (79.5%). AA & Hispanic increase greater than in previous 10 years

Carroll County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Carroll County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Population Change for Howard County by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 – 2000* Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 1990 and 2000 are for non Hispanics. For 2000 includes single race only White is largest increase but less than ½ of total increase (48.2%)

Population Change for Howard County by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2000 – 2004 * Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs and 2000 Modified Race data * Race for 2000 and 2004 are for non Hispanics. White gain now fourth largest

Howard County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 1990 * Race share is non-Hispanic Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Data 1990MARs

Howard County’s Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates White share drops another 4.4 pct pts., Increase spread out

Age Data Arrest rates by age and gender Pop Distribution by Age and Race

U.S. Arrest Rates by Age and Gender (per 10,000 population) Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, using arrest statistics from the FBI (Crime in the U.S. in 2004), and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

2004 Population Distribution by Race/Hispanic Origin from Maryland Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census Bureau population estimates

Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Montgomery Population Share by Race & Hispanic Origin, 2004, Males Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

2004 Percent Minority by Age Group for Montgomery County Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates

Summary – A Few Key Points Maryland is a diverse state and one that is becoming more diverse over time This diversity is being promoted by net out- migration of non-Hispanic whites, in- migration of African Americans and steady and significant foreign immigration

Summary – A Few Key Points Foreign immigration plays a major role in population growth in the State in general, and an even larger role for particular counties Although the minority population is growing in 19 out of 24 jurisdictions, it is not uniform as to its race/ethnic makeup

Summary – A Few Key Points In many jurisdictions, growth in Asians and Hispanics over the period nearly matches, or exceeds, growth over the previous 10 years Spanish speakers are the largest share of those that have trouble speaking English, although this can vary by jurisdiction.

Summary – A Few Key Points In almost all cases, minority population is younger than the non-Hispanic white population As a result, minority share of the population in key crime age cohorts will be larger than their share of the general population

Thank You….. Mark Goldstein