US-Russian Relations: Nuclear Arms Race and Disarmament Matt Rosenstein Associate Director Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security (ACDIS) at UIUC Modified by: Kevin Sacerdote Mandarin High School Jacksonville, FL

What Hath We Wrought? Only country in the world to carry out a nuclear attack? United States, on Japan, WWII Hiroshima (August 6, 1945) and Nagasaki (August 9, 1945) Fat Man and Little Boy

Hiroshima and Nagasaki Estimated that between 115,000-170,000 were killed immediately Twice as many more died over time (radiation poisoning) 95% of deaths were civilian

Nuclear Shadows Before & After The Bomb

Hiroshima and Nagasaki Little Boy: 13,000 tons of TNT equivalent Most nuclear warheads today: yield between 150 kiloton-1 megaton “Tsar bomba”: Soviets exploded a 50-megaton bomb in test (1961) Spasm attack by US or USSR would result in 40-75 million Soviet and 110-150 million US deaths (RAND, 1960)

US and Soviet Nuclear Strategic Forces, 1950-2000 US USSR/Russia Year Launchers Warheads Launchers Warheads 1950 462 400 22* 84* 1960 1,559 3,127 144 354 1970 2,100 5,239 1,985 2,216 1980 2,022 10,608 2,545 7,480 1990 1,903 12,477 2,500 10,271 2000 1,407 7,519 1,266 6,094 2005 1,225 5,966 981 4,732 Source: Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets (2005) *=1956 totals

USSR’s Top Priority Targets (Recognize the Geography?)

Both US and USSR created “nuclear triad” forces: Characteristics of US and Soviet Nuclear Strategic Forces (“Delivery Systems”) Both US and USSR created “nuclear triad” forces: Ground (ICBM) Sea (SLBM) Air (Bombers)

The Arms Race: Why? Territorial integrity and national sovereignty Ideological struggle Capitalism vs. communism Liberal democracy vs. authoritarian rule Military prowess: nukes as visible symbol of power USSR could not keep up economically MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction Deterrence Bargaining power / leverage in multilateral bodies

US-Russia Arms Race: A Brief Early Chronology 1942 US initiates Manhattan Project 1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki 1949 Soviet explosion of nuclear device 1957 Sputnik 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

Early US Nuclear War Plan(s) (acc. To The Dead Hand. Pp. 15-24 ) Eisenhower’s: drafted in 1960 “Massive Retaliation” Overkill-use of 3,500 nuclear weapons against the USSR John F. Kennedy (and Robert McNamara) “Counterforce” At first, Implied a limited Nuclear Strike (aim for weapon storage facilities, not populations or factories) Later, “Assured Destruction” 20-25% of the population, 50% of the Industry “Mutual “ was added by Donald Brennan of the Hudson Institute to create the acronym “MAD” (Mutual Assured Destruction) The USSR does NOT achieve Nuclear Parity with the USA until the late 1960’s/Early 1970’s --- Leads to: Keepin’ Up With the Jones’

Arms Control Treaties BE SURE TO REVIEW THE TYPED INFORMATION ON THE GOPO WEBSITE!!! Multilateral: Antarctic Treaty (1959) Outer Space Treaty (1967) Outlaws military uses for either area. Biological Weapons Convention (1972) Inhumane Weapons Convention (1981) Outlaws use of chemical weapons, other weapons that could cause undue “collateral damage”

Arms Control (cont.) Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (1968) Prevents transfer of nuclear weapons and/or technology to non-nuclear states. Limited Test Ban Treaty (1968) Prohibits testing weapons in atmosphere, outer space, and underwater (later expanded)

US-Russia Disarmament: A Brief Chronology 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty End of atmospheric testing “Hotline” Halt proliferation to other states 1969-1972 SALT I Set numerical limits on missile launchers (not warheads-->MIRVs) 1972-1979 SALT II Broader limits than SALT I…but Afghanistan spoiled negotiations (Ratified?)

US-Russia Disarmament: A Brief Chronology 1972 ABM Treaty Limited each to two ABM sites (no nationwide defense) Prohibited sea-, air-, space-based systems Limit on qualitative improvement Problematic: “Star Wars”, US pull-out in 2001-2 1972 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

Arms Controls US/USSR (cont) Intermediate-range Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty (1987) Eliminates shorter-range missiles in Europe; allows for onsite inspections Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) (1991) 30% reduction in total nuclear arsenal.

US-Russia Disarmament: A Brief Chronology 1991 START I Treaty Negotiated almost 10 years Reductions in launchers (max. 1,600) and warheads (max. 6,000) 1993 START II Treaty Further reductions; never ratified by US Senate and Russian Duma

Soviet Nuclear Assets at Time of Break-Up Major Destruction & Dismantlement Site Chemical Weapons & Support Facility SSBN Base ICBM Base (Silo) Mobile ICBM Base Production Facilities Non deployed ICBMs Heavy Bombers Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Belarus ICBMs: ICBM Launcher Pads: Warheads: 94 54 ~225 ICBM Launchers: HBs: Warhead: 258 176 36 ~1,984 SLBMs: Warheads:: 1,340 1,924 87 ~11,296 115 104 40 ~1,462

Bioweapons Programs 1960s: both US and USSR were developing bio-weapons programs (US stockpiled tularemia bacteria, anthrax, a Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis virus (dried and liquid), and other “items” 1972: BWC: US, USSR (other actors, such as UK) agreed to halt bio-weapons research 1992: Russian scientists reported work with smallpox from 1970s-1990s (felt the USA was also cheating- Dead Hand ( by David Hoffman) claims most of the US stockpile was destroyed in 1973 pp. 101-126) Bio-Program cheaper than nukes (Bacteria = Prefix “L” and Viruses = Prefix “N”) Worked with Plague (L1), Tularemia(L2), Brucellosis (L3), Anthrax 836 (L4), Smallpox (Variola) (N1), Ebola (N2), Marburg (N3), Tularemia(L2), and others in large quantities Various research efforts: aerosolizing the virus; placed on ballistic missile warheads…

Biological Weapons (acc. To Hoffman’s Dead Hand) Covertly, USSR built the largest biological weapons program in the world Experimentations with genetic engineering to create pathogens that would cause unstoppable diseases Unstoppable diseases not considered a “battlefield weapon” (p. 14)

After the Soviet Break-Up: Proliferation and “Brain Drain” Concerns over safeguarding nuclear technologies and materials Dysfunctional military: command and control? ~150,000 scientists, engineers, technicians employed in weapons-related work 1990s economic crisis meant low wages (or back wages owed…) --> “nuclear entrepreneurs” Sell their knowledge?Seek employment in countries with nuclear aspirations?

Cooperative Threat Reduction in Russia Silo Launcher Elimination Heavy Bomber Elimination Solid Propellant ICBM/SLBM and Mobile Launcher Elimination Liquid Propellant ICBM/ SLBM Elimination SS-24/SS-25 Mobile Launcher Elimination SSBN/SLBM Dismantlement & Elimination

Cooperative Threat Reduction in Russia Keeping out the terrorists at Vector (biotechnology facility, Koltsovo, Russia)…

Cooperative Threat Reduction: Accomplishments More than 6,000 nuclear weapons destroyed Thousands of launchers, missiles, devices Removed all weapons from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan (pp. 440 – 458 of The Dead Hand ) Employed thousands of former weapons scientists Also destroying chemical and biological weapons The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and its Dangerous Legacy, by David E. Hoffman (2009, Doubleday Publishing)

The ABM Treaty: A Bump in the Road? In Dec. 2001, Bush administration gave 6-month notice that US would withdraw from treaty Why? US wants to develop NMD to protect against WMD threats from terrorists, “rogue states” Putin regime protested vehemently-->felt it would limit their deterrence capabilities (made START II levels undesirable) Failure of Russian diplomacy?

The ABM Treaty: A Bump in the Road? SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty), or “Moscow Treaty” signed in May 2002 Cut warheads to 1,700-2,200 by 2012 Ratified in 2003 by Duma and Senate

US-Russian Arms Race Legacy: Ongoing Concerns Potential for technology, materials, knowledge transfers “Setting a bad example”—weapons stockpiles and fissile materials stocks are disincentives for India, Pakistan, Israel(?), Iran, N. Korea, etc.

US-Russian Arms Race Legacy: Ongoing Concerns Whither the United States? National Missile Defense Earth-penetrating nukes, mini-nukes Nuclear primacy? Whither Russia? Superpower nostalgia Maintain credible deterrence Relations with China, Iran vs. with US, EU