Operational modeling of waves and currents at beach and harbor scales The CariCOOS TEAM

Overview Rincon buoy update Review of our main goals as promised at the 2012 General Assembly in Parguera Model description: – Operational mode: SWAN – In development: ROMS Plans for the future 2

Rincon buoy update On Friday March 8 at 3 PM the Rincon buoy mooring broke, apparently from a boat strike CDIP personnel called with the news at 4:15 PM By 5 PM we had a jetski on the water By 7 PM buoy was on shore Rubber bungee cord shows sign of being snapped under stress, not cut Ironically, this happened on the eve of the largest swell of the year 3

Advancing CariCOOS: Providing data from large scales to small scales to aid your day to day operations In FY , focused on developing core assets, tools and products required by shore dependent sectors, particularly: – Very high resolution wave models & observations – Very high-resolution coastal circulation modeling – Very high-resolution coastal wind modeling & observations – Rapid bathymetric surveying and seabed mapping capabilities – Water quality products Examples of Specific Applications – SAR Operations & Safe navigation – Beach safety – Oil spill and pollutant modeling – Recreational sector Support for SAR Ops High-res currents High-res winds High-res waves Rapid surveying Commercial fishing High-res currents High-res winds High-res waves Examples of the dependence of specific sectors on CariCOOS core assets

The CariCOOS Swan Multigrid Nearshore Wave Model 5

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SWAN Point forecasts 9

SWAN Point forecast for SJ Bay 10 RIGHT NOW San Juan Buoy 9 AM: Hs = 8.9 ft

Are our predictions any good? SWAN Model Validation: Rincon & SJ 11

12 Are our predictions any good? SWAN Model Validation: PONCE & USVI

Example applications of operational nearshore wave modeling 13

Application #1: Waves & erosion from Hurricane Sandy Extreme WNW swell angle Significant coastal flooding & erosion CariCOOS performed before and after bathymetric surveys 14

Morphological Response: Hurricane Sandy After Sandy, offshore sand migration was observed in both beach profiles. For further details please see Patricia Chardon’s poster

Hydrodynamic Conditions Fence Hurricane Sandy Peak Conditions Survey Before Hurricane Survey After Hurricane CariCOOS Swan Wave Model plots from Sandy’s event: (1) October 26, 2012, (2) October 29,2012 (1) (2)

17 Example of possible threshold for Jobos Above: Nearshore prediction for Jobos Beach from the CNWM. Left: Early version of the warning system. Application #2: Development of the PR Beach and Surfzone Currents Warning System *Please see our poster for further details

High-resolution coastal circulation modeling 18

19 Under development: operational coastal circulation modeling at beach and harbor scales Effort led by Dr. Stefano Leonardi Sea state variables used to generate initial and boundary conditions are taken from the AmSeas NCOM model. The AmSeas model has a 3km resolution with 40 vertical levels. The model assimilates SST, altimetry (SSH) as well as profile temperature and salinity into a 1/8 degree global NCOM model. K-profile turbulent profile for vertical parameterization. Open lateral boundary conditions. – Flather condition: Barotropic variables (2D). – Orlansky condition: Baroclinic variables (3D). Forcing: – Tides – Winds – Rivers – 3D baroclinic structure from AMSEAS

Under development: Operational coastal circulation modeling in San Juan Bay Please see Edgardo Garcia & Stefano Leonardi’s poster for more details 20

Under development: Operational Coastal circulation modeling in San Juan Bay Please see Edgardo Garcia & Stefano Leonardi’s poster for more details 21

22 Under development: operational coastal circulation modeling in USVI: Port of Charlotte Amalie Please see Miguel Solano & Stefano Leonardi’s poster for more details

23 Under development: operational coastal circulation modeling in USVI: Port of Charlotte Amalie

Conclusions & Future Plans We have successfully developed an operational wave model (99.1% up-time) which resolves wave transformation at beach and harbor scales Validation of SWAN shows significant improvement over previous versions of SWAN as well as NWW3 forecasts (for further details please visit our poster) Future plans – A very high-resolution coastal circulation model will be validated and fully operational by the 2014 General Assembly – Nearshore product integration into GIS web service – Implementation of CariCOOS-WRF wind model forcing (please see Dr. Luis Aponte’s poster) into SWAN to improve prediction of the daily wind wave signal 24

Buoy displacement during boat strike 25

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