Blue Sky Framework 1

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Presentation transcript:

Blue Sky Framework 1

2 BlueSky Model Framework

Why measure PM2.5? 3 Health: PM2.5 is small enough to be inhaled deep into the lungs Exposure is linked to an increased risk of mortality and aggravation of pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Naeher et al (2007)

Blue Sky Operations Two runs per day 0Z and 12Z Two 4km resolution grids: Focusing on west and east BlueSky Playground available for testing

5 Canadian BlueSky Playground Simulates prescribed burns(or wildfires) in order to estimate emissions and downwind pollutant concentrations

6

7

Feb 2014 Blue Sky Playground evaluation Nordegg May06-07, 2013 Grew 45Ha

(example for 250HA)

Clearwater Prescribed Fire May 11, 2013 (340HA)

Feb 2014 Blue Sky Playground evaluation Z Clearwater Prescribed Fire May 11, 2013: BLUESKY PLAYGROUND 340HA

Lodgepole Fire May 13, 2013 Wildfire Evaluation: (RWF-020) May 13, to 2230 C2 Wx : 21C RH19% W53km/h 1300 HA in six hours MODIS at 1430

Lodgepole Fire: HYSPLIT WX SOURCE ExAMPLE May 13, 2013 Wildfire Evaluation: (RWF-020) May 13, to 2230 C2 WX : 21C RH19% W53km/h 1300 HA in six hours

14 Evaluate as a prescribed fire planning tool Blue Sky Resolution at 4km -can it detect the smaller PBs? -grass vs slash emmisions? BlueSky burning day length 9AM-7PM -evening or high latitude burns? -overnight inversion issues? Limited to 48 hour time sequence Difficult to test (cannot easily access archive) Include fuel type as percentages?

Plan: Perform a BlueSky PG sensitivity analysis using hypothetical PBs of 250, 500, 750, 1000HA…. Gather imagery during PB/Wildfire (remote sensed imagery, radar…..) Measure surface PM2.5 concentrations (use contact from Environment)