The Argos Freight Modeling Project Presentation to SCAG Modeling Task Force 9/22/04 Genevieve Giuliano Peter Gordon School of Policy, Planning and Development University of Southern California

SPPD/ISI USC The Argos Research Project Purpose: Develop an intra-metropolitan freight flow model using state of the art computer science techniques Research Team Jose-Luis Ambite Sr. Research Scientist, ISI, USC Genevieve Giuliano Prof. Policy, Planning & Dev., USC Peter Gordon Prof. Pub Policy & Real Estate, USC Qisheng Pan Assoc. Prof., Urban Planning, TSU LanLan Wang PhD student, SPPD, USC Matthew Weathers PhD student, Computer Science, USC Paul Pender Naqeeb Abbasi MPP student, SPPD, USC MS student, Computer Science, USC

SPPD/ISI USC Argos Project Goals 1. Contribute to knowledge in both information science and social science 2. Address a significant government problem 3. Conduct interdisciplinary research that bridges information science and social science

SPPD/ISI USC The Intra-metropolitan Freight Flow Estimation Problem Models –Goods movement as inter-regional trade problem Many good models of inter-regional freight flows High level of aggregation in geography, commodities Don’t translate easily to intra-metropolitan context –State-of-practice transportation planning models Conventional urban models do not take freight directly into account Traditional 4-step approach difficult to apply to freight –Differences in behavioral foundations of travel demand –Variation in supply/demand across industry sectors –Changing industry dynamics

SPPD/ISI USC Problems, con’t Data –Extensive data requirements Flows by mode, commodity, value, origin & destination –Lack of disaggregate data US, state level data generally available; county and smaller unit limited Fine geography does not coincide with fine sector data –Proprietary data Private firms not required to release data Customs data processed by third parties Black box nature –Survey data Infrequent, costly to update

SPPD/ISI USC An Ideal Model Would… …have solid behavioral foundation …be multi-modal …handle passenger and freight trip interactions …minimize use of costly data …be easily updated …be transferable

SPPD/ISI USC Our Approach Use accessible, reliable data sources –Available to public –Regular updates –Transparent computations –Produced by reliable sources Use economic supply/demand as model foundation Use as much detail as possible –Geography –Economic sectors

SPPD/ISI USC Basic Concepts of Model Freight supply/demand in two basic categories –Intra-regional – supply/demand within SCAG region –Inter-regional – imports to, exports from, pass-through flows Intra-regional supply/demand –Use IMPLAN I/O model for region –Factor out imports/exports Inter-regional supply/demand –Use import/export data sources (by mode) –Identify import/export zones/nodes Use regional employment as control total

SPPD/ISI USC Main Data Sources ItemSourceComments IMPLAN I/O MIG, Inc Commercially available, updated annually, reliable TAZ employment data by sector SCAG 2000 point data Emp totals < IMPLAN; adjust to IMPLAN; updated infrequently Waterborne imports/exports WCUS Data are available online and updated annually Air imports/exports LAX Flows by sector only for LAX Truck imports/exports SCAG truck surveys “one-shot” surveys Rail imports/exports ITMS Data not reliable

I-O TABLE 2001 SCAG 2000 EMP AGGREGATE SECTORS ATTRACTIONS & PRODUCTIONS ($, JOBS, by TAZ) AIRPORT DATA WCUS 2000 ITMS LINKS TO IMPORT, EXPORT NODES CONVERSION TO COMPATIBLE SECTOR, $/TON VALUES COMBINE INTER AND INTRA P& A AGGREGATE TO REGIONAL TOTALS GO TO TRANSPORTATION MODEL INTRA-REGION IMPORTS/EXPORTS SCAG SURVEY FREIGHT FLOW MODEL: STEPS IN GENERATING FREIGHT SUPPLY/DEMAND CHECK

SPPD/ISI USC SOME DETAILS ON INTRA-METRO PORTION SCAG 2000 EMP DATA Employment by sector, TAZ IMPLAN 2001 I/O Regional transactions table Apply sector IO coefficients to employment data Check/adjust to sector, county totals Generate supply, demand by TAZ, sector in jobs, $$

SPPD/ISI USC SOME DETAILS ON FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION MODEL N x N matrix of freight P’s, A’s in tons Generate O-D matrix using gravity-type distribution model Convert O-D flows to PCEs SCAG region transportation network with equilibrium passenger traffic assignment Traffic Assignment of freight PCEs Equilibrium total traffic assignment Factor out air, water, rail

SPPD/ISI USC Workflow for Freight Estimation

SPPD/ISI USC Recent Work Update data sources to 2000, 2001 Develop conversion table for sector codes (SIC, NAICS, SITC, etc) Seek better sources for ground imports/exports Seek better methods for $$/tons/jobs conversions Develop logical internal checks To learn more….