APPLYING FOREST SIMULATION MODELING TO TEST THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON SELECTED ECOSYSTEMS AT TWO MOUNTAIN TRANSECTS IN NEVADA Mike Hay, Franco Biondi, Jimmie Chew, Robin Tausch
Presentation Outline Purpose Simulation model Data Directions/Work to be done This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
Purpose Main objective: insert climate into models used by resource managers This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
Vegetation depends on succession, disturbance, and climate (plus humans) This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS Grazing Altered Fire Regime Climate Change P-J Expansion Fire Suppression 6
How do we combine records (instrumental and proxy) with simulation models? Recent observations show a strong east-west gradient in wildfires across Lincoln County (Dilts et al. 2009) However, long-term fire history data show that this gradient may be a recent phenomenon (Biondi et al. 2011)
SIMPPLLE is an acronym for: Jimmie Chew and Kirk Moeller, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula MT
Simulation model This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
HANDLE DISTURBANCE PROCESSES AS STOCHASTIC EVENTS CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN VEGETATION PATTERNS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES PROVIDE FOR A QUANTIFICATION OF THE RANGE OF VARIABILITY FOR BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO IDENTIFY DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS OF BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND LEVELS OF DISTURBANCE PROCESSES INTEGRATE KNOWLEDGE FROM RESEARCH STUDIES, FINE SCALE MODELS AND EXPERT OPINION SIMPPLLE was developed as a management tool to:
Spatially and temporally explicit This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS Great Basin Pinyon- Juniper Woodland Barren Inter-Mountain Basins Big Sagebrush Shrubland Inter-Mountain Basins Curl-leaf Mountain Mahogany Woodland and Shrubland
Data LANDFIRE National Fire Occurrence database (NFO) Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Data Bias Corrected, Spatially Downscaled (BCSD) Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections Digital Elevation Model (DEM) This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
LANDFIRE This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS Vegetation: Type Canopy density Canopy height
National Fire Occurrence database This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS Fire occurrences 1986 – 1996 Area burned
PRISM Suitable Climate Space This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
PRISM Upper and lower bounds for temperature and precipitation This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
BCSD GCM GCM cell size is large At this latitude: ~320 km x 280km This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
BCSD GCM U.S. DOI Bureau of Reclamation Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Santa Clara University Civil Engineering Department Climate Central Scripps Institution of Oceanography U.S. Geological Survey U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources California-Nevada Applications Program California Climate Change Center This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
National Elevation Dataset This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS USGS 10 meter resolution
Directions/Work to be done Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
Directions/Work to be done Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
Directions/Work to be done Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS
Questions? This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS