APPLYING FOREST SIMULATION MODELING TO TEST THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON SELECTED ECOSYSTEMS AT TWO MOUNTAIN TRANSECTS IN NEVADA Mike Hay, Franco Biondi,

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Presentation transcript:

APPLYING FOREST SIMULATION MODELING TO TEST THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON SELECTED ECOSYSTEMS AT TWO MOUNTAIN TRANSECTS IN NEVADA Mike Hay, Franco Biondi, Jimmie Chew, Robin Tausch

Presentation Outline  Purpose  Simulation model  Data  Directions/Work to be done This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

Purpose Main objective: insert climate into models used by resource managers This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

Vegetation depends on succession, disturbance, and climate (plus humans) This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS Grazing Altered Fire Regime Climate Change P-J Expansion Fire Suppression 6

How do we combine records (instrumental and proxy) with simulation models? Recent observations show a strong east-west gradient in wildfires across Lincoln County (Dilts et al. 2009) However, long-term fire history data show that this gradient may be a recent phenomenon (Biondi et al. 2011)

SIMPPLLE is an acronym for: Jimmie Chew and Kirk Moeller, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula MT

Simulation model  This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

 HANDLE DISTURBANCE PROCESSES AS STOCHASTIC EVENTS  CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN VEGETATION PATTERNS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES  PROVIDE FOR A QUANTIFICATION OF THE RANGE OF VARIABILITY FOR BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND DISTURBANCE PROCESSES  IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO IDENTIFY DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS OF BOTH VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND LEVELS OF DISTURBANCE PROCESSES  INTEGRATE KNOWLEDGE FROM RESEARCH STUDIES, FINE SCALE MODELS AND EXPERT OPINION SIMPPLLE was developed as a management tool to:

Spatially and temporally explicit This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS Great Basin Pinyon- Juniper Woodland Barren Inter-Mountain Basins Big Sagebrush Shrubland Inter-Mountain Basins Curl-leaf Mountain Mahogany Woodland and Shrubland

Data  LANDFIRE  National Fire Occurrence database (NFO)  Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Data  Bias Corrected, Spatially Downscaled (BCSD) Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections  Digital Elevation Model (DEM) This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

LANDFIRE This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS  Vegetation:  Type  Canopy density  Canopy height

National Fire Occurrence database This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS  Fire occurrences  1986 – 1996  Area burned

PRISM  Suitable Climate Space This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

PRISM  Upper and lower bounds for temperature and precipitation This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

BCSD GCM  GCM cell size is large  At this latitude: ~320 km x 280km This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

BCSD GCM U.S. DOI Bureau of Reclamation Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Santa Clara University Civil Engineering Department Climate Central Scripps Institution of Oceanography U.S. Geological Survey U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources California-Nevada Applications Program California Climate Change Center This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

National Elevation Dataset This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS  USGS  10 meter resolution

Directions/Work to be done  Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

Directions/Work to be done  Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

Directions/Work to be done  Refining pathways and system logic This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS

Questions? This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. EPS