38° 37.5° 37° 123°122°121° google: cisn shakemap nc

The Next Bay Area Earthquake What to expect What is the Hazard in San Jose? Dr. John Boatwright, Bay Area Earthquake Alliance Co-Chair Co-Regional Coordinator for Northern California US Geological Survey

California urban areas are prisoners of the Plate Boundary E-A SF Bay Area Greater LA North American Plate Pacific Plate

Pacific plate North American plate plate 40 mm/yr Farallons-Sierra Nevada

“We need to correct our style of architecture … to work a savings of untold sums of money in the future” - San Jose Mercury News October 29, 1868 Hayward Earthquake 1868

San Francisco 1906

1989 Loma Prieta

Bay Area Earthquake History A.D.

Cumulative M 0, dyne-cm Moment Accumulation in the SF Bay Region

In the next 30 years there is a 63% prob- ability, nearly a 2/3rds chance, of an M6.7 or larger earthquake in the greater Bay Area. Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults there, including the Hayward fault. (UCERF2 Report, 2007) % 31% 6% 3% 1% 3% 63% 7% 11%

M ≥ 6.7 Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults including the Hayward Fault.

1868 Hayward Earthquake this ShakeMap is based on damage reports- there were only 260,000 people in the Bay Area 38° °-121° the shaking was strongest in San Leandro and Hayward

14 Hayward Fault Earthquake: The Infrastructure Earthquake

Animation of Shaking from a M7.0 on the Hayward Fault San Leandro Epicenter

Losses by county - M7.0 scenario 16 Solano Sonoma Santa Clara Santa Mateo San Francisco Marin Contra Costa Alameda $0 $40B $80 $100 Economic Loss ($Billions)

What will happen in the next large earthquake? Soft-Story Damage & Failures Fire Following Earthquake

Soft-Story Buildings 18 soft-story retrofits in San Francisco are still voluntary rather than mandatory

1989 Favorable Fire Conditions caused by soft-story failure