Arab Political Demography Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is Oil Destroying the Arab world? Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography

Introduction Start combining demographics with migration, religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and potential global security issues

Some Questions Is there an Arab World? Is this term based on a Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region? Does it relate to the Muslim World?

As a Linguistic Region

Arab World Linguistically Defined Note how this is the heart of Islam, but not all or even most of Islam. Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

Result Yes, seems fairly unified – it shares a common characteristic (formal region)

As a Historical Region

Arab World Historically Defined The Arab empire that extended into Europe until 1491 Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

Result Perhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of empires have unified this region, but not all were controlled by Arabs. Each of these empires would also be a formal region

As a Religous Region

With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab Expansion/Trade

Result Depends, Islam certainly dominates but it has branches and there are also some minority religions including branches of Christianity. Still a formal region, but note the fuzzy borders as Islam as a % varies.

Religious % in Arab League

As a Political Region

Today The Arab World Politically Defined – the Arab League

Algeria Bahrain Comoros Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia U.A.E Yemen The Arab League - The League of Arab States Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab States, a voluntary association of independent countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen ties among the member states, coordinate their policies, and promote their common interests. FACTS OVERVIEW Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia

How does this compare to the US? Note this crude map contains only part of the Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state. But it should get you thinking!!! Turkey not Arab Iran not Arab

USA Population: 314 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2012) Capital: Washington D.C. Area: 3.8 million sq miles Major language: English Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN) Arab League Founded: 1945 Population: 340 million (approx. 2007) Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Area: 5.25 million square miles Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia Members: 22 members including Palestine Major language: Arabic Life Expectancy: Varies generally approaches 70 years for men More Direct Comparison

Conclusion of Comparison Today the Arab League population is bigger than the US 25 years from now its could be 50% greater than the US Question How unified is this region? How well does it exist as a Formal rather than merely Vernacular Region.

Result On paper there is a single group, but it is of limited use, much like the Organization of American States for North and South America

As a Unified Region

Variations on the Western Fringe: Note that Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not Arabs How unified is this region?

Note Shi’a Locations and Proportions Winckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab nations have missing religious and ethnic data to hide/ignore problematic data inside their countries Click here for examples: ions/mideast/maps/final_maps_soc.swf Inside there are variations.

Examples of Hidden Information CountryWhat it has to hide LebanonReligious differences not measured since 1932 SyriaReligious differences not measured since 1960 JordonEthnic differences not measured since 1948 S. Arabia Total population counts questionable, no religious data EgyptUndercounts Coptic Christians Bahrain Sunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a majority Qatar With an estimate of 73% Foreigners, such data not measured

Unemployment No Arab state seems to accurately report unemployment For example S. Arabia has claimed about 10% when reality could be as high as 20 to 30%. (recent Wall Street Journal put it even higher) See

How does this relate to Oil/Gas? Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of “worlds”? Oil and Non-oil? In general many Arab countries with the largest populations have the least oil.

As an Economic Region

Oil Reserves (Gb) CountryGb OPEC Nations Saudi Arabia261.8 Iraq112.5 United Arab Emirates97.8 Kuwait96.5 Iran89.7 Venezuela77.8 Libya29.5 Nigeria24 Qatar15.2 Algeria9.2 Indonesia5 Non-OPEC Nations Canada180 Russia60 United States22.4 Mexico12.6 Norway10.2 Oman5.5 United Kingdom4.7 Egypt3.7 Gb = Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration. Two oil centers in Arab Region

Saudi Arabia Oman United Arab Emirates Bahrain Kuwait Qatar The Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982 and the Gulf Investment Corporation in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): the oil & gas rich

Oil Reserves (Gb) CountryGb GCC OPEC Nations Saudi Arabia261.8 Y United Arab Emirates97.8 Y Kuwait96.5 Y Libya29.5 Qatar15.2 Y Algeria9.2 Non-OPEC Nations Oman5.5 Y Egypt3.7

If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast majority of world oil reserves would be controlled by this group.

A result Wealth and jobs have become highly concentrated in the region around the Gulf resulting in large scale migration into the Gulf area. GCC states have favored pro-natalist (pro- birth) policies even as Non-Oil states have started moving towards anti-natalist policies, why?

Population in 2000 Nationals million Non-nationals …. 10 million

Note how many year old Saudi’s there are and how many non-nationals

As a Demographic Region

4 patterns emerge: (1) low growth regions, (2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4) “least developed” regions (not on chart)

Result Some argue that the Arab world is splitting into these 4 different parts with following results

Most recent Estimates CountryTFRNRI Lebanon % Egypt % Saudi Arabia % Yemen % Somalia %

Additional Results 1.Slow growth areas will join developed nations 2.Slowing areas will face possible instability and hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor

Possible Results 3. The GCC hopes to “grow” enough labor to oust outsiders, but as population momentum grows, energy resources will decline – too many for too little? 4. The ‘backward’ not developing areas will continue to fuel regional and world instability

Somalia???

Final Conclusions There are a number of factors suggesting a unified Arab World, but… Differences in resources and resulting economies has resulted in different demographic patters and policy – and thus possible futures Oil wealth seems to be causing more differentiation rather than unity between Arab states

Study Questions 1.Is there an Arab World? How many different ways did we look at this and what is the evidence for or against? 2.In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing? 3.If the Arab World was unified, could it rival the US? Explain.