Kjellrun Hiis Hauge Roles of uncertainty in fisheries management

Outline Uncertainty in advice on total quotas Certainty, the virtue of science Reduction of uncertainty The handling of uncertainty Can we make management more robust to uncertainty?

Uncertainty in advice Uncertainty is not accepted Decision making is more convenient with exact scientific advice Precision in advice contradicts the actual uncertainty Revisions of earlier estimates cause distrust

Reduction of uncertainty Both scientists and users present reduction of uncertainty as a solution to the problem How much uncertainty can be reduced is not given What do we do in the meantime?

Communication The problem of distrust; a matter of communication? The problem of distrust; a lack of mutual communication?

Precautionary reference points Fishing mortality F F pa F lim B pa B lim

The role of uncertainty It affects people’s lives It creates disagreements It becomes political when there are conflicting interests The

Management and uncertainty The precautionary reference points are constructed to make management decisions robust to uncertainty – in relation to the natural resource, not the fisheries Balancing on the border of precaution demands frequent recovery plans The precautionary approach focuses on limits and not on possibilities

Limits of science A ”precise” perception of the status of a stock has a 2-3 years’ delay. Advice will always be built on what science already has seen and described; Surprises cannot be predicted. Science is built on averages and general perceptions. Science is thus concerned with the big picture. We have to live with uncertainty

Limits of management Uncertainty is a problem when increased knowledge would have implied a significant change for the individual fisherman. Over-capacity and considerable investments make management decisions vulnerable to uncertainty. Especially when the stock status is not good.

Capability of science Clarify the issue of uncertainty; make uncertainty transparent Change focus from exploitation limits to exploitation possibilities –How long can the fish wait in the sea, from an economical perspective –How can we make quotas more stable –etc.

Possibilities of management Base management strategies on possibilities rather than limits Move the issue of uncertainty away from a battle about distrust Uncertainty should be a political issue about how to cope with it Make harvest control rules robust to uncertainty, regarding both the natural resource and the users.