Trade, Growth, and Poverty Reduction William R. Cline Center for Global Development and Institute for International Economics.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

DOHA and the EU. Intro Trade of industrial goods Trade in services Trade in agricultural goods Trade and the Environement.

Advertisements

Winners and Losers: Impact of the Doha Round on Developing Countries FINDINGS FROM A GLOBAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL Director, Trade, Equity and Development.

Building and Expanding Opportunities for Agriculture WTO Public Forum – October 4, 2007.

Agricultural Trade Reform: Opportunities and Challenges for Developing Countries Kimberly A. Elliott Center for Global Development Institute for International.

Ongoing reforms in most developing countries, little change in industrial and some developing countries Ongoing reforms in most developing countries,

United States Proposes A Tariff-Free World Tariffs = Taxes On families, business, and the poor.

Global Sugar Policy Reform John Beghin and Amani El-Obeid Economics and CARD Iowa State University Silverado Symposium on Agricultural Policy Reform University.

Doing Business in Korea October 22, 2008 Ken Nye, Commodity Specialist Michigan Farm Bureau.

CHINA,IN THE SAME BOAT WITH THE SOUTH FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT WU JIA-HUANG VICE-CHAIRMAN, CHINA WTO RESEARCH CENTER 11th session General Conference.

Trade Reform, the Doha Development Agenda, and the World Bank Kym Anderson University of Adelaide, Australia and Development Research Group, World Bank.

International Trade Policy A Major Influence On The Economic Viability Of The U.S. Cotton Industry A Major Influence On The Economic Viability Of The U.S.

Global Poverty 1 Lecture 22.

Figure 13.1 Tariff-inclusive price. Fig Fig

Thom Achterbosch LEI EU - India regional trade agreement – a quantitative assessment.

Quantifying the impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation Lecture 23 Economics of Food Markets Alan Matthews.

Impact of MFA Phase-Out on the World Economy -- An Intertemporal, Global General Equilibrium Analysis Xinshen Diao Trade and Macroeconomic Division International.

AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM IN THE WTO The Road Ahead.

Are Farm Subsidies Worth the Doha Failure Bob Thompson and Anita Regmi High Income Country Distortions in Agricultural Markets Three basic forms –Import.

Globalization and Global Poverty Alan V. Deardorff Ford School of Public Policy and Department of Economics University of Michigan.

Survey: Given the current employment problems in this country, should we discourage foreign imports and impose tariffs and quotas in order to stimulate.

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT and EXPORT CREDITS UPDATE

WTO’s Doha round in an era of high food prices Kym Anderson University of Adelaide, Australia Review session for Ch. 3 of the Monterrey Consensus, on International.

The U.S. and World Sugar Industries under the EU and DOHA Trade Liberalization Won W. Koo Chamber of Commerce Distinguished Professor and Director

Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES.

Copyright ©2002, South-Western College Publishing International Economics By Robert J. Carbaugh 8th Edition Chapter 1: The International Economy.

Bi-lateral FTAs, RTAs and Unilateral Liberalization: The South Asian Trade Highways Presented at the ARTNeT-PEP Policy Forum on “Trade, Investment and.

Poverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda Thomas W. Hertel and L. Alan Winters Purdue University and Development Research Group, The.

Trade Policy and Global Poverty William R. Cline.

Delivering on Doha’s Promise: The Role of Rich Country Policies Nancy Birdsall Center for Global Development Cancun Trade and Development Symposium September.

1 China’s WTO Accession: Some Lessons for Vietnam Will Martin World Bank 3 June 2003.

Seminar on: The WTO Doha Development Agenda Dr. Kui-Wai Li APEC Study Center City University of Hong Kong November 2, 2005 Economism is a Paradigm of “More.

Terms of Trade. Impacts of changes in ToT for economically LDCs DCs usually produce a larger variety of g&s for export and the same applies to some ‘middle-income’

Implications of Doha, Monterrey and WSSD for Africa Presentation to the Committee of Experts African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.

The Doha round of WTO talks Waqas Latif BBA(Hons) Osama Qadri BBA(Hons) Mohammad Ali Jinnah University.

The Impact of the World Trade Organization on Food Aid Policies USDA and USAID EXPORT FOOD AID CONFERENCE Kansas, City, Missouri April 25, 2006 Floyd Gaibler,

Chapter 6: The United States in the Global Economy

By Ntando Ndlovu - ZIMCODD1 Removal of subsidies on cotton trade and growth of the cotton industry in Africa SARPN/EJN Regional Strategy Meeting on Hong.

Agriculture Negotiations: Moving Forward Ashok Gulati IFPRI Director in Asia WTO and The Doha Round: The Way forward ICRIER-SRTT Conference 6-7 April,

Globalization, Trade, Investment, and Environment Session Objectives: l Debate risks and opportunities of economic globalization l Identify SD requirements.

National Consultation of Project on “Doha Round and South Asia – Linking Civil Society with Trade Negotiations New Delhi “Development Dimensions” 17 September,

EPAs and Access to Markets for Agricultural Products Reneth Mano Dept of Agricultural Economics University of Zimbabwe.

1 DOHA WORK PROGRAMME CURRENT SITUATION AND ISSUES FOR PAKISTAN Presentation at the EC-Pakistan TRTA Seminar at Islamabad By Dr. Manzoor Ahmad Ambassador.

Agriculture: the heart of the DDA Kym Anderson Development Research Group World Bank African/LDCs Ambassadors Seminar on Doha, Washington DC, 13 March.

Agricultural Trade, Rural Development, and Policy Coherence Association for International Agriculture and Rural Development June 7, 2004 John Nash The.

Multi-Fiber Arrangement Expiration: Implications for South Asia Ashe Hate Shisir Khanal John Larsen Paul Smart Romina Soria David Zanni.

International Trade & its Benefits. Why do Nations Trade? To obtain goods they cannot produce To reflect comparative advantage- when one country produces.

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE NEED FOR REFORM ARIE KUYVENHOVEN 2004.

Groupe d'Economie Mondiale Trade, Development and the EPAs Patrick A. Messerlin Professor of Economics, Sciences Po Director,

Expectations from LDCs WTO 10 th Ministerial Conference in Nairobi

THE ROLE OF TRADE: SOUTH-SOUTH AND GLOBAL Ing. MARCELO REGUNAGA New Delhi, November 2003.

The Doha Round of WTO Negotiations: The U.S. Perspective Robert L. Thompson Chairman International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council and Gardner.

The Developing Countries’ Emerging Role in the Global Market Robert L. Thompson Chairman International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council 24 May.

Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2002 Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2002 October, 2001 Making Trade Work.

WTO Status of Negotiation, July 2004 Framework... and Beyond Debra Henke USDA/ Foreign Agricultural Service.

1 Trade, Equity and Development in the Doha Negotiations December 5, 2005.

Delivering on Doha’s Promise: The Role of Rich Country Policies Nancy Birdsall Center for Global Development Cancun Trade and Development Symposium September.

WTO Hong Kong Ministerial Gains & Losses for India Pradeep S. Mehta CUTS International Jaipur, India

Eric Wailes and Alvaro Durand-Morat University of Arkansas, Division of Agriculture Impacts of WTO Policy on U.S. Rice Policy.

Multi-Fiber Arrangement Expiration: Implications for South Asia

Gaining from International Trade

International Trade.

Advantage Disadvantage

Key Messages While there have been substantial reforms in manufactures trade, there is still high protection in agriculture. Reforms are ongoing in agriculture.

WTO’s Doha Development Agenda and South Asian Agriculture

The Potential Impact of the Doha Round on Grains

Framework for a Global Partnership for Development

The Future of Textiles and Clothing after 2005

Modeling full global trade policy reform and Doha scenarios

Globalization and Global Poverty

Presentation transcript:

Trade, Growth, and Poverty Reduction William R. Cline Center for Global Development and Institute for International Economics

Change in long-term productivity for 1% rise in trade/GDP (%) Levine-Revelt ‘ Frankel-Rose ‘ Alcala-Ciccone ‘ Dollar-Kraay ‘ Easterly ‘ Chaudri-Hakura ’00 (mid-tech industry) 0.18 World Bank GEP ‘ OECD ‘03 0.2

Percent reduction in poverty for 1% per capita GDP growth Bangladesh2.3Brazil1.5 China2.9Mexico2.1 India2.5Turkey3.5 Indonesia3.0Mozambique1.0 Pakistan3.2South Africa1.7 Philippines2.2Tanzania1.0 Thailand3.5Uganda1.4 Argentina2.9

Aggregate Measure of Protection (AMP, %) US EU JPN Agriculture Textiles, Apparel Other Manufactures Oil, other All (AMP)

Global Free Trade Impact: Lift 500 million out of poverty in 15 years $200 billion annual long-term income gain for developing countries At least half from removing industrial country protection This is twice annual aid, and it benefits industrial country consumers Half of gains are in agriculture

Blueprint for a Doha Deal DCs: Phased deep tariff cuts or elimination, including in agriculture, textiles and apparel; DCs: Eliminate agricultural subsidies or fully “decouple” from production; Middle-income DGCs: cut protection at least percent; longer phase-in. Second track: immediate free entry from LDCs, HIPCs, SSA; 10-year tax holiday on FDI

July ’04 Framework Eliminate agricultural export subsidies Substantially cut domestic ag. subsidies; 20% in 1 st year; deeper for higher subsidies Deeper cuts for higher agricultural tariffs (but ‘sensitive’ products) Manufactures: nonlinear tariff formula DgCs longer phase in, limited departures SUM: Framework can yield large or small liberalization

WTO Rulings on Cotton, Sugar Sound analytical cases Put US, EU on defensive Increases pressure to decouple agricultural subsidies from output Dovetails with rising fiscal pressure in US

FY2006 Budget trims farm subsidies 5% cut in the $16 billion/year program Maximum cut from $360,000 to $250,000 Needed: Decoupling from production US subsidies = 10% tariff

Does global agricultural liberalization hurt LDCs? Food deficit misleading; LDCs are “everything deficit” but have food comparative advantage So LDCs gain from terms of trade when ag prices rise (10%) and manufactured goods prices fall (only requires ½% decline for net gain on current flows) Stories about loss of EU quota rents are ad hoc, not convincing Bangladesh exception but gains in DgC manufactures markets as part of overall package

LDC food trade and comparative advantage CountryPoor (mn) # of countries Bangladesh –food trade deficit & comp. disadv. 991 Others: total37444 Food trade deficit21334 Food comparative disadvantage 11021

Does preference erosion from global free trade hurt LDCs? LDCs gain in access to markets in middle- income countries, industrial countries with constrained preferences LDCs gain from own-liberalization as part of package

Test for Preference Erosion ($bn gains) “Country” Free trade US, EU freeze P7 Mozambique Uganda South Africa Tanzania Other sub-Saharan Africa Central America Bangladesh Total, 7 poor (P7)