DDRE/DTU AUGUST Decision Support System for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Danish Defence Research Establishment / Technical University of Denmark

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Hostile Environment

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Project Description To explorer a number of technologies within AI and OR that may be used in designing a DSS for fighter pilots. The DSS is to be used in finding a response to ground based threats.

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Requirements Real-time Hardware Updateable Trustworthy Useful User Interface

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST A Prolog Example % % Find appropriate countermeasures. % proper_cm(Angle, jammer) :- ( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), warning(mws, (Angle, _)), jammer_mode(auto) );( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), warning(mws, (DiffAngle, _)), Angle \== DiffAngle );( warning(rwr, (Angle, _)), not(warning(mws, (_, _))) ). ”When the jammer is jamming it may influence the RWR and jammers of other aircraft.” “When the jammer is in 'auto' mode, it will jam the RF sources detected.” If the MWS indicates a missile in a given direction, and the RWR does not, the missile is IR guided.

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Some Results ”Use flares, chaff, jammer, or towed decoy. Do not use chaff to counter SA-5 and SA-10. Use jammer in auto mode.”

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST The Bayesian Net

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Semi-automatic Population Excel MATLAB desc. MATLAB prog. HUGIN Text file

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Structural Learning Fly-In HUGIN (SL) Text file Log file Perl Text file

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Some Results

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Parameters α ρ

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Lethality ScenarioLethality

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Deployment Scheme Jammer Decoy Chaff

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Reduction of Lethality (α)

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Reduction of Lethality (ρ)

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Deployment Phases IIIIIIIVV Time OtOt AtAt

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Constraints I Time OtOt AtAt Ot’Ot’ O t ’’ T start T end

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Constraints II Time AtAt T start OtOt CtCt

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Constraints III Time OtOt AtAt Ot’Ot’ O t ’’ T start T end

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Scenarios sc1sc2sc3sc4sc5sc6

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Running Time

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Results

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Three Metaheuristics Steepest Ascent Local Search Simulated Annealing

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Parameters in SA Algorithm Cooling Schedule Start Temperature End Temperature Acceptance Stopping Criteria Objective Function Neighbourhood Initial Solution

DDRE/DTU AUGUST

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Results

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Comparing Metaheuristics

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Comparing Approaches I Prolog is easy to use, and easy to model BN is not categorical; it treats probabilities IP ensures the optimal solutions; but is too slow for a real-time DSS A metaheuristic will not necessarily give an optimal solution; but it will find a solution fast

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Comparing Approaches II Prolog Bayesian Net Mathematical Model Metaheuristic

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Agenda Project Description The Four Approaches Prolog Bayesian Net Integer Programming Metaheuristics Comparing Approaches Conclusion

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Conclusion Four approaches to a DSS for fighter pilots have been implemented All approaches have pros and cons None of the approaches fulfil all requirements More research may find the best technology for developing a DSS for fighter pilots

DDRE/DTU AUGUST Decision Support System for Fighter Pilots Lars Rosenberg Randleff Danish Defence Research Establishment / Technical University of Denmark