Where to Start? Professor Richard Rosenfeld Social sources or violent crime Crime control policy Crime trends.

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Presentation transcript:

Where to Start? Professor Richard Rosenfeld Social sources or violent crime Crime control policy Crime trends

Steps Towards Prediction 1. Understand project purpose 2. Decide which data is important and collect data 3. "Clean" data 4. Choose right software and right model 5. Calculation & Understanding the result 6. Predict

Choose right software and right model Stata, SPSS and SAS “Statistical” +“Data”=Stata

Stata Information

Data Mining Stata values used to come to our end result Years multiplied by Months multiplied by Location multiplied by Constant = Homicide=Y* ( )+M* L*

Prediction = ~112

Tableau

Mean, Median, Mode and IQR Median Household Income 2008 Total 2009 Total 2010 Total 2011 Total 2012 Total 2013 Total Sample Size 7679 Sample Mean $33, Sample Median $33, IQR(Inter Quartile Range) $42,

Quote “Crime was down in the city and across the country last year, according to preliminary numbers released by the FBI this morning. When the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department first released the numbers in January, Chief Dan Isom said they showed the city is “headed in the right direction.”” McClatchy - Tribune Business News 05/23/2011

Five Neighborhoods with a Drop in Homicide Neighborh oods TotalMedian Income Fairgroun ds $23,761 Hyde Park $27,870 O’Fallon No Data Mark Twain I-70 Ind No Data Kingsway West $32,112

Language is a tool to conceal the truth. – George Carlin

Questions

References ・ SE, Heather Lane. Crime statistics McClatchy - Tribu ne Business News, May 12, 2007 Income Statistics by Rorty, M. C ・ Publications of the American Statistical Association, ISSN , 09/1917, Volume 15, Issue 119, pp. 794 – 800 ・ Despite economy, national and St. Louis crime down St. Louis Post-Dispatch (St. Louis, MO), 05/24/2011 ・ FBI stats show drop in crime in St. Louis, nationwide by Jennifer Mann McClatchy - Tribune Business News, 05/23/2011 ・ Crime and Crime Control by Joo, Hee-Jong Social Indicators Research, ISSN , 04/2003, Volume 62, Issue 1, pp. 239 – 263 Other data source: