Climate Change Here and Now: Forest Ecosystem Impacts Steven McNulty Southern Global Change Program USDA Forest Service

Three Goals of This Presentation Participants will describe two examples of impacts of climate change on ecosystems Participants will identify two impacts of climate change on forests Participants will identify three ecosystem services that forests provide

Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000

Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000

Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST 2000

Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton Beaubien and Freeland I.J.Biomet 44:53-59, 2000

The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.

Relationships Between Ecosystem Services Water Availability Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity WaSSI-CB

Water Shortages

West Compared to East: Different Demands on Water Resources

Model Rationale Supply Demand Climate Land use change Anthro Ground water

WaSSI = Total water supply from all sectors Total water demand from all sectors Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI)

Reductions in Forest Water Quality Increased sedimentation (turbidity)

Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8 mm) Karl et al BW 7

Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map

Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

Projected Brook Trout Intact Range

Water Trade-Offs Water Yield v. Forest Carbon Gain

Relationships Between Ecosystem Services Water Availability Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity (Law Model) (Constanza Model) (Sun Model) WaSSI-CB

> 25% DECLINE 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline

Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change 5%-25% DECLINE <5% CHANGE 5%-25% INCREASE

Relationships Between Ecosystem Services Water Availability Carbon Sequestration Biodiversity (Law Model) (Constanza Model) (Sun Model) WaSSI-CB

Fire Impacts on Forests

Changing Patterns in Wildfire Occurrence

Large Scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature From Westerling et al. 2005

Changes in Tree Distribution

Sugar maple Iverson et. al GTR NE265

Loblolly pine Iverson et. al GTR NE265

Insect Impacts on Forests

Insect Caused Forest Loss Mountain pine beetle Pine beetle damage Forest damage

“Nearly 4 million acres (and 38 million trees) of mature white spruce forest on the Kenai Peninsula have been killed by a growing population of spruce bark beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) since about We attribute the beetle infestation to rising average temperatures in South-Central Alaska in both winter and summer. More beetle larvae can survive, and higher summer temperatures allow the insects to mature faster and complete a two-year life cycle in one year.” Edward Berg and Kenneth Raffa Future Insect Impacts on Forest Carbon Loss

Hurricane Impacts on Forests

Hurricane Zone in the US

T.R. Knutson and R. E. Tuleya, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Recap of Talk Climate change will impact ecosystems - Change in the growing season starting date - Change in the growing season length - Changes in location of ecosystem productivity Climate change will impact forests through - increased water stress - increased fire risk - increased hurricane damage - increased soil erosion Ecosystem Services Provided - Water - Fisheries (recreation) - Paper, timber, carbon sequestration