Methodological issues of population projections in small States the case of Cape Verde Joint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections INE - Lisboa (Portugal), April 2010 BRITO, Pedro RODRIGUES, Teresa

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Main Issue: To discuss possible alternative methods of performing population projections in small political independent States ( To consider Cape Verde and its 10 islands as a case study ) 2 Republic of Cape Verde

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Methodological assumptions To project Cape Verde’s population evolution for , based on different methods; To present some hypothetical demographic “scenarios”, both for total and insular population To make a critical analysis of the results obtained 3

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Our Goal both natural and/or migratory To make some aggregation tests of the 10 existing islands, according to their convergence or divergence behavior patterns (both natural and/or migratory). To verify the probable existence of future different internal (insular) trends / “local histories” 4

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Starting points Cape Verde is no exception to this rule a. an insular Country, located in the Atlantic Ocean in the West African coast b. composed by 10 islands and several islets and divided in 22 municipalities c. a micro-island State with less than half a million inhabitants (Census 2000: ) 5 Data analysis becomes increasingly complex as the size of the projected population decreases

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Starting points d. Annual Average Increase Rate ( ): 2.39% e. extremely young population structure (42% under 15 years; 54% under 20 years) f. Crude Birth Rate=29.5 ‰; Crude Mortality Rate=6.4 ‰; Infant Mortality Rate=33.3‰; General Fertility Rate=123.3 ‰; Synthetic Fertility Index=4.0 children/woman; Average Life Expectancy at Birth (M/F)=71 years; Mean Procreation Age=29 years g. Huge internal diversity in natural and migratory behaviours 6

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Methodologies Cohort Survival For this exercise we rely on the method of components (Cohort Survival) to present some hypothetical “scenarios”, based on the Census of 2000 and all demographic behaviors and its trend in the 1990s; mathematical methodsratio In subsidiary terms we used mathematical methods and ratio. The first one considers the average annual growth rate recorded in the 90’s to project population volume by 2025; the second estimates the same population based on the weight it had both in 1990 and 2000, compared to the population of ECOWAS. 7

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa 8 Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics Estimation Criteria on Mortality, Fertility and Migration Trends ( ) IMR= 28,05IMR= 25,1IMR= 22,7IMR= 20,5IMR=18,7 ALE0 (M)= 67,2; ALE0( F)=75,4 ALE0 (M)= 68,4; ALE0 (F)=76,2 ALE0 (M)= 69,4; ALE0 ( F)= 77 ALE0 (M)= 70,3; ALE0( F)= 77,7 ALE0 (M)= 71,1; ALE0( F)= 78,2 Birth (estimates)= Birth (estimates)= Birth (estimates)= Birth (estimates)= Birth (estimates)= Birth (M)= 31177; Birth (F)= 32711) Birth (M)= 30399; Birth (F)= Birth (M)= 26510; Birth (F)= Birth (M)= 21356; Birth (F)= Birth (M)= 18286; Birth (F)= Migr. Balance= /5Constant AMIR= -0,2 AAIR= 2,2AAIR= 1,9AAIR= 1,5AAIR= 1,0AAIR= 0,8

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde National Results (1) 9

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa 10 National Results, with and without migratory effect Scenari o 1 Scenari o 2 Scenari o 1 Scenari o 2 Scenari o 1 Scenari o 2 Scenari o 1 Scenari o 2 Scenari o 1 Scenari o 2 Total Population Male Female General Fecundity Rate 185,43123, Synthetic Fertility Index 6,3242,92,822,872,782,832,742,82,72,52,3 Infant Mortality Rate 6529,826,3 23,9 21,4 19,6 17,8 Active Renovation rate - 27,2%22,8%21,1%19,9%20,2%13,2%13,4%12,2%12,4%8,7%9,6% Average Life Expectancy at Birth (MF) 68,570,872 72,9 73,8 74,4 74,7 Average Life Expectancy at Birth (M) 65,766,567,9 68,9 69,9 70,7 71,1 Average Life Expectancy at Birth (F) 71,374,975,8 76,6 77,4 77,9 78,2 Scenario 1 – Natural Trend Scenario 2 - Repulsion

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Cape Verde Population Structure – Natural Trend (2000 and 2025) Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics Graphic 2: Cape Verde 2025 (Natural Trend ) F Birth’s year M Birth’s year Graphic 1: Cape Verde 2000 (Natural Trend) F Birth’s year M Birth’s year

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Cape Verde Population Structure – Alternative Trend (2000 and 2025) Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics Graphic 4: Cape Verde 2025 (Alternative Trend ) F Birth’s year M Birth’s year Graphic 3: Cape Verde 2000 (Alternative Trend) F Birth’s year M Birth’s year

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics 13 Results ( ) Without MigraçõesWith Migrações Demographic Growth in the next 25 years Actives and aging increasing Trend for aging of the population Decreasing of AAIR Mortality Decreasing Mortality and Natality decreasing Migratory balance each less negative time Resultado Final ( ) Population will tend to aging Decline of almost all the demographic indices Increase of the indices of aging, longevity and dependence of the aged Average Life Expectancy at birth increasing Infant Mortality Rate decreasing

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Main Conclusions Micro-demographic variables, such as birth / fertility, mortality and migration rates are the most important factors for population growth in Cape Verde; Mortality continues to decline at all age groups and islands, as a result of improvements in sanitation and socio-economic; Life expectancy at birth increased significantly between 1990 and 2000; Cape Verdean population will continue to grow in the near future, at least until 2025, no mater the chosen scenario. 14

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Regional Results (2) 15

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Population estimates for Cape Verde’s islands ( ) 16 Demographic Projection by Islands (Alternative Scenario) Islands Years Santo Antão São Vicente São Nicolau Sal Boavista Maio Santiago Fogo Brava Total

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Population estimates for Cape Verde’s islands ( ) 17 Demographic Projection by Islands (Alternative Scenario) Islands Anos Santo Antão São Vicente São Nicolau Sal Boavista Maio Santiago Fogo Brava Total

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa From the demographic point of view there are 3 groups of Islands: 1- Islands with a fast growth Santiago ; São Vicente and Sal (Development Concentration Poles; moderate Fecundity + high migratory balance) 2- Islands with a moderate growth Fogo and Santo Antão (Sources of internal and international migrations; high Fecundity rates + negative migratory balance); 3- Islands with a slow growth Boavista; Maio; São Nicolau and Brava (Sources internal and international migrations ; small fecundity + very negative migratory balance) 18

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa 4. Islands with very reduced population and a very high probability error: Brava inhabitants Boavista inhabitants Maio – inhabitants 19

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Main Conclusions The more economic and social developed islands remain the major demographic poles of attraction (Santiago; Santa Catarina; São Vicente; Sal and Boavista in some ways); Islands with higher fecundity rates are not the ones where growth rates are highest ; Migrations (internal and international ones) represent the major importance to explain diferentials on populational dynamics; Demographic projections at level of the municipalities are impossible or present major errors, as there are municipalities with vey small volumes of residents. … 20

Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa Thank You. 21